In 2022, Hurricane Ian hit Florida, killing more than 150 people.
Joe Reddell/Getty Images/Getty Images North America
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Joe Reddell/Getty Images/Getty Images North America
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center warn that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be extremely active, putting tens of millions of Americans in the eastern half of the country at risk of flooding and damaging winds. The increase in activity is partly due to unusually warm ocean temperatures caused by climate change.
Forecasters expect 17 to 25 storms to form in the Atlantic between June 1 and the end of November. At least eight of them are expected to be full-blown hurricanes rather than weaker tropical storms. Category 4 to 7 is expected to be a severe hurricane with winds strong enough to uproot trees, destroy mobile homes and damage other structures.
This is the highest number of storms ever forecast in the Atlantic Ocean, well above the average of 14 storms that typically occur during a given hurricane season.
“This season looks like it’s going to be an extraordinary one,” said Rick Spinrad, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, home to the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricanes have wreaked havoc and killed hundreds of people in the United States in recent years as climate change makes severe storms more common. Four of the past five years have seen an above-average number of storms. In 2022, Hurricane Ian struck Florida, killing more than 150 people, causing more than $110 billion in damage, and leveling entire communities in and around Fort Myers. In 2021, Hurricane Ida killed more than 100 people and caused an estimated $75 billion in damage from Louisiana to New England.
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham warned that even relatively weak storms can cause catastrophic flooding, with the vast majority of hurricane-related deaths caused by flooding, storm surge and other water damage. In 2018, Hurricane Florence flooded the Carolinas even though it was only a Category 1 storm with relatively low wind speeds. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey was similarly weak when it stalled in the Houston area, causing massive flooding damage.
Forecasters and emergency managers stress that people in the hurricane’s path should be prepared and know where to evacuate and how to get there if a hurricane hits their homes.
“Think about what you need to do to protect yourself, your loved ones, and even if a hurricane hits you this summer,” said Eric Hooks, deputy administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Your pets. “Do you have medications that require refrigeration? Do you have medical equipment that requires electricity? Do you have mobility issues that would make evacuation more difficult?
One reason a large number of storms are expected is that wind conditions in the Atlantic and Caribbean are expected to be conducive to hurricane formation. Predicting wind conditions is difficult, but during La Niña years, winds are generally more favorable for hurricane formation. This is because the vertical wind patterns, or wind shear, that damage hurricanes are less common.
While La Niña has not yet occurred, it is expected to occur in late summer as peak hurricane season begins.
But the biggest factor is the unusually high water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic where the hurricanes form. Warm water is fuel for storms because heat powers the storm’s winds, and warm water provides more moisture, resulting in large, powerful, rainy storms.
Climate change is a major driver of global ocean warming, including in the Atlantic Ocean. The ocean absorbs most of the extra heat humans accumulate on Earth through burning fossil fuels.
But the current record-breaking heat in the tropical Atlantic has also surprised and shocked scientists. Climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said temperatures are higher than expected due to climate change alone.
“The warming we saw in the North Atlantic last year made people raise their eyebrows a little bit and say, ‘Ha! What’s going on there?
Decreases in air pollution, recent volcanic eruptions and dust patterns blown out of the Sahara Desert may all play a role, as tiny pollution particles, ash and dust all affect how much the sun’s heat is reflected in the atmosphere before reaching Earth. Scientists around the world are currently working to understand these numerous and complex effects on ocean temperatures.
