France’s left-wing parties made an unexpected comeback in Sunday’s national legislative elections, stripping the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally party of its majority in the lower house of parliament.
But no party is expected to win an outright majority, leaving one of Europe’s largest countries in gridlock or political instability.
The results, compiled by The New York Times using data from the Interior Ministry, confirmed earlier predictions that no party or group would win a majority.
Here are five takeaways from this election.
Big Surprise No. 1
France voted for a new parliament in snap elections with two major surprises, neither of which experts, pollsters or forecasters had foreseen.
The most important was the victory of the left: its alliance gained 178 seats and became the country’s main political bloc. It was the most surprising victory for the French left since François Mitterrand won the presidency as a socialist in 1981, bringing it back from the postwar wilderness.
French President Emmanuel Macron, backed by most of France’s commentators, has spent the past seven years declaring that the left – especially the Socialist Party – is dead and that the more radical fringes like France Not Surrender are dangerous troublemakers. By. Both won big Sundays.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the founder of France’s Indomitus party, expected to win about 80 seats, possibly a dozen more than the Socialists, declared that Macron now had the “responsibility” to appoint a prime minister from the left-wing coalition, the New People. front. He boldly stated that he would refuse “to negotiate with the president.”
In Paris, a large, raucous crowd gathered to celebrate in the mainly working-class neighborhoods around Stalingrad’s Bataille Square on Sunday night.
The other two parties in the New Popular Front are the Greens and the Communists, who are expected to get about 35 seats, while the Communists are expected to get about 10 seats.
Big Surprise No. 2
Another shocker was the third-place finish of the National Rally and its allies, who had been expected to win the most seats, if not an outright majority, in the 577-member National Assembly, the more powerful lower house.
The party is ready to govern with Mr Macron, in what is known as cohabitation, when the prime minister and president are on opposing political sides.
Nonetheless, the National Rally and its allies did win 142 seats – more than at any time in its history, something the party was quick to point out.
“The tide is rising,” Marine Le Pen, the party’s longtime leader and longtime presidential candidate, told reporters on Sunday. “This time it wasn’t high enough, but it was still rising. As a result, our victory was actually just delayed.
But the fundamental change predicted before Sunday – that France would become a far-right country – did not happen.
So despite Le Pen’s bluster, the election-night parties at national rallies seemed sullen.
The “Republican Front” may have worked
It is too early to tell how voting patterns changed between the two rounds and how the New Popular Front achieved its unexpected victory. But the strategy of preventing the far right from winning by forming a “Republican Front” appears to have played an important role.
France’s left-wing parties and Macron’s centrist alliance eliminated more than 200 candidates from a three-way contest in constituencies where the far-right had a chance of gaining seats. Many voters who hate the far right then vote for whoever is left — even if that candidate was not their first choice.
“Under normal circumstances I would never vote for Invictus,” Hélène Leguillon, 43, said after voting at Le Mans. “In order to stop rallies across the country, we are forced to make choices we would not otherwise make.”
The far right sees the strategy as unfair and depriving voters of their right to have a say.
Jordan Bardella, president of the national rally, told supporters in a speech: “Depriving millions of French people of the possibility of seeing their ideas put into power will never be a viable path for France.
Voter turnout soars
Official figures for the final round of turnout were not immediately available on Sunday evening, but pollsters expected turnout to be about 67%, well above the last time France held legislative elections in 2022. That year, only about 46% of registered voters participated in the second round.
Sunday’s turnout was the highest since 1997, reflecting strong interest in a race that was much higher than usual.
Legislative elections in France are usually held weeks after the presidential election and usually favor the party that wins the presidency. That makes the legislative vote unlikely to appeal to voters, many of whom feel as if the outcome is foregone.
This time, though, voters believe their votes could fundamentally change Macron’s presidency — and they appear to be right.
What happens next is unclear
With no one party having an outright majority and the lower house of parliament about to be dominated by mutually hated factions, it’s unclear exactly how and by whom France will be governed.
Macron must appoint a prime minister capable of forming a new government so that newly installed members of Congress will not overthrow the government due to a vote of no confidence.
It’s unclear who that person might be, and none of the three main groups – which have their own internal divisions – appear ready to cooperate with the others.
“The political culture in France is not conducive to compromise,” said Sami Bencina, a professor of public law at the University of Poitiers.
Mr. Mélenchon is disliked by many within the Socialist Party (even by some within his own party, who resent his control of the Party even though he is no longer its official leader); Mark Members of Hong’s Ennahda party expressed dissatisfaction with the early presidential election. Most MPs who are not members of the National Assembly are disgusted by this.
Macron himself is a powerful anger-generator, as he has proven time and again during his seven years as president, although he has ruled out resigning. According to the latest survey by Ifop polling agency, The survey, taken after his decision to snap elections but before voting, showed his approval rating at just 26%.
Where will France’s next prime minister come from? What legislative clout does Mr. Macron still have? If the House of Commons becomes ungovernable, can he continue to preside over it?
stay tuned.
Segolena Lestradic Reporting from Le Mans, France.