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U.S. crude oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday as the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, while OPEC maintained its outlook for relatively strong growth this year.
In the latest short-term energy outlookThe U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.1 million barrels per day from the previous 900,000 barrels per day, while lowering its 2024 benchmark crude oil price forecast by about 4%.
EIA said it expects Brent spot prices to average US$84.15/barrel in 2024, down from the previous forecast of US$87.79/barrel, and WTI average price to US$79.70/barrel, down from the previous forecast of US$83.05/barrel, but is expected to Lrent crude oil prices will rise to $85/barrel in 2024.
“Despite the initial decline in crude oil prices following the OPEC+ announcement, we expect that the extension of all voluntary production cuts into the third quarter of 2024 will result in continued declines in global oil inventories into the first quarter of 2025, with continued declines in global oil inventories through the first quarter of 2025,” the EIA said in the report. Oil prices put upward pressure.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ said in its monthly report that it continues to forecast oil demand to grow to 2.2 million barrels per day this year and 1.8 million barrels per day next year, unchanged from last month’s outlook, with non-OPEC+ supply expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2024. /day in 2025 and 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, both unchanged from May estimates.
Front-month Nymex Crude Oil (CL1:COM) for July delivery is closed +0.2% To $77.90/barrel, front month August Brent crude oil (CO1:COM) closed +0.3% to US$81.92/barrel.
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Morgan Stanley analysts said they expected Brent crude prices to rise by about $5 a barrel this summer, but warned that tighter supply over the next three months would be replaced by a supply glut in late 2024 and 2025.
Once the third quarter ends, the bank expects seasonal tailwinds to turn into seasonal headwinds, noting that demand for refined products tends to fall by an average of 3.9 million barrels per day between September and January, making the environment for a rebound difficult.
Morgan Stanley’s Brent crude pricing shows $86/barrel in the third quarter, falling to $85/barrel in the fourth quarter, then $81/barrel in early 2025 and $76/barrel by the end of next year. bucket.
Morgan Stanley analysts see “sustained” surpluses in 2025 if OPEC+ takes no further action.
