German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will travel to Italy on Thursday for the Group of Seven summit, having seen his leadership position weakened by a crushing defeat in European Parliament elections on Sunday.
All three parties in his coalition government received fewer votes than the conservative opposition combined. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) shows itself to be the second most popular party in the country.
While French President Emmanuel Macron suffered an even worse defeat for the far right in France, prompting him to call for new elections to the National Assembly, such an outcome is not expected in Germany, where it would have had a different reaction.
Let’s take a look at why.
Surprise elections are rare
Some opposition leaders said the results showed a lack of confidence in the prime minister and his coalition and that he should also call new federal elections.
The government’s answer was categorical: no.
The reason may be as simple as the differences between the French and German systems. While President Macron can ask the French parliament to hold new elections, a new vote in Germany can only take place after a complex process triggered by a majority vote of no confidence in the prime minister. This makes early elections extremely rare in Germany – they have only happened three times in the Federal Republic’s 75-year history.
Although the three parties in the coalition government suffered blows at EU level, domestically they still hold a majority in the German parliament. Despite the coalition’s unpopularity, it is likely to move forward and hope to turn things around before the next regular federal election in 2025.
Alliance remains weak
But that doesn’t mean the consequences of the European elections won’t be affected.
The results revealed deep public distaste for the coalition, with the partnership between the prime minister’s Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats proving clumsy and often tense.
Less than a quarter of Germans are satisfied with the government, the lowest figure in more than a decade, according to a poll commissioned by public broadcaster Infratest Dimap last month.
In the European elections, the Social Democrats, led by Scholz, came in third place with nearly 14% of the vote. The Greens trailed with nearly 12% of the vote, while the Liberal Democrats had just over 5%.
“The League has been in bad shape for some time; the three parties that make up the coalition have been in conflict,” said Armin Steinbach, a professor at HEC Paris. “This gives voters the impression that the government is not united. “
Mr Scholz acknowledged the poor performance and vowed that “citizens’ trust in this work can be won back”.
The next test for the alliance will come in about four weeks, when all parties must work together to balance the 2025 budget with the goal of saving at least 15 billion euros (more than $16 billion).
“If they can’t find a solution, I don’t rule out that the stability of their coalition will break down,” said Professor Steinbach of HEC Paris. “I think we will see less conflict between parties in order to send a signal to voters: ‘We understand you are dissatisfied.'”
confusing news
Analysts and party leaders appear to agree that Scholz’s coalition partners at least need to sharpen their messaging and better convince Germans that they are working in their interests.
This is especially true when it comes to the issues that matter most to voters right now, including the economy, immigration and the war in Ukraine.
In opposition, conservatives have been vocal in their advocacy of tougher immigration measures, criticized sustainable energy reforms and pushed for launching the Taurus long-range rocket system into Ukraine. The far-right, which tends to be more pro-Russian, agrees with the first point but wants an end to Germany’s military support for Ukraine. By contrast, the ruling coalition’s message has been mixed.
Jan Philipp Albrecht, former The environment-advocating Green Party minister of state blamed its poor performance on a party that was once an upstart and is now a staunch part of the establishment. “It’s not particularly attractive for a government to commit to changing realpolitik and make a lot of compromises in the process,” Mr. Albrecht said.
The German Chancellor’s Social Democrats ran on a “peace” platform, although they have been a significant contributor to military aid to Ukraine, a divisive policy in Germany.
Although the war in Ukraine has created many additional spending demands, the Liberal Democrats remain focused on a no-deficit budget.
One of the most significant changes is how young people vote, with Germans aged 16 and 17 being allowed to vote for the first time. The Alternative for Germany’s support among voters under 30 increased by 10 points, while the Greens’ support among these voters fell by 18 points.
What should we do now?
With all three coalition parties in such bad shape, they have no real incentive to dissolve this government just to go through another potentially painful election.
Any election would be particularly risky for the FDP, the smallest member of the coalition, which is already perilously close to the 5% minimum required for seats in Germany’s parliament.
Although the Lib Dems are a pro-business, free-market party that is most at odds with the other two more progressive parties in government, ending the partnership could push the party to the political fringes for years.
Perhaps most crucially, holding an election now could lead to difficult choices for the mainstream conservative opposition, which has vowed never to ally with the AfD.
Every new German election tends to test this proposition. The next test will be in East Germany’s three states, which will vote on their state parliaments in September. The Alternative for Germany is expected to perform well, while all three coalition parties are expected to suffer losses again.
“The question is at the municipal and regional level whether we will at some point get election results where we cannot afford not to cooperate with them,” foreign policy analyst Daniela Schwarzer said of the AfD. “We’re not there, but questions are being raised.”
