Kyiv seeks support at major Swiss summit

A secluded Swiss resort on the shores of Lake Lucerne will be transformed this weekend as dozens of world leaders and thousands of soldiers and police descend on Bürgenstock.

Some 28 months after Russia invaded its neighbor, the Swiss hope that the Ukraine summit will produce the first preliminary sketches of a peace process.

It was the largest rally in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion.

But with major players such as China withdrawing and Russian President Vladimir Putin issuing a new ultimatum – demanding Ukraine surrender and calling for a peace proposal – expectations for significant progress are low.

Russia has not yet been invited.

For Ukraine, the very convening of this meeting is positive.

Politicians in Kyiv have been paying tribute to each confirmed participant in a show of support. For them, this major summit should show Moscow that the world is on Ukraine’s side and on the side of international law.

It comes at a difficult time.

Russia has launched a new offensive in the northeast near Kharkov, and missiles are hitting homes and power plants across Ukraine with new intensity.

Therefore, size matters when it comes to summiting. But so is matter.

“It is very important to establish a political and legal framework for future peace. To show that peace can only be achieved within Zelensky’s ten-point framework,” Ukrainian MP Alexander Merezhko elaborated on the situation in Kyiv. “This includes Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its sovereignty.”

He was referring to the peace package proposed by the Ukrainian president in late 2022, which insists on forcing Russia to return all occupied lands.

Ukraine now hopes to unite as many countries as possible behind its proposal to put “psychological pressure” on Russia to accept such terms if it reaches this stage of development.

Now it seems that this is unlikely.

The summit was first proposed at a time when the battlefield situation in Kiev was looking more promising: a prime time to try to work out the terms of a future peace deal.

Since then, the dynamic has changed.

“I think there is a growing consensus that this may not be a war that Ukraine cannot win,” said Sam Greene of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

He noted that a “significant portion” of the U.S. foreign policy establishment believes Ukraine should “cut its losses” and that there is growing support in Europe for right-wing parties more sympathetic to Moscow.

Professor Green said: “I think one of the purposes of this event is to galvanize support for a vision for Ukraine to achieve an acceptable outcome.”

But turnout was less optimistic than Ukraine and Switzerland had hoped.

Joe Biden will not attend in person, a decision that has upset Mr Zelensky. And attempts to bring onboard major countries from the “South” – rather than Ukraine’s instinctive allies – have only been partially successful.

India, Brazil and China were either absent or sent low-level representatives.

Russian officials have long dismissed the incident as inconsequential. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said it was “worthless” and a “dead end”. But Moscow is still urging its allies to boycott the summit.

“This is a shortcoming,” admits Alexander Merezhko. “It appears that China has decided to support its strategic partner Russia without restrictions, rather than the peace process: an aggressor, not peace.”

On the eve of the event, Vladimir Putin tried to throw another spanner in the works by outlining the terms he proposed for so-called peace: Those who invaded Ukraine for no apparent reason now want Kiev to surrender.

Among other things, Putin demanded that Ukraine hand over all four regions that Russia claimed it had annexed, including those still under Kiev’s control.

Kyiv immediately dismissed the claim, calling it “ridiculous.”

The Lake Lucerne meeting will focus on the three least controversial issues in President Zelensky’s peace package: nuclear security, shipping food to global markets and returning abducted Ukrainian children and prisoners.

Anything beyond that is unlikely to be productive.

Not now, because neither Ukraine nor Russia is ready to give up the fight.

“I think from a Ukrainian perspective, looking at what’s happening on the front lines, what they really need is not a commitment to peace, certainly not at any cost,” Sam Green said of Kyiv’s allies.

“They need to be committed to winning the war.”