There’s no sugarcoating it: the Greens are in trouble after losing a third of their seats in last week’s European Parliament elections.
In recent years, the EU has become the world’s most ambitious frontline in the fight against climate change. It has achieved this through major policy shifts, such as setting high emissions reduction targets, preparing to abandon the internal combustion engine, promoting nature recovery and curbing the environmental impact of agriculture. Green parties in 27 EU member states have successfully pushed this agenda.
But over the past few years, the mood among much of Europe’s electorate has changed markedly.
European voters are anxious about the war in Ukraine and its impact on defense and the economy. The cost of living crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic continues to plague the EU’s core member states. Restricting immigration has become a focus for voters. Amid this new set of priorities, the Greens’ appeal appears to have diminished – or, worse, made them appear out of touch.
“Europe has indeed done a lot on climate action,” Bas Eckhout, a prominent Dutch Green Party politician who serves as deputy chairman of the European Green Party, said in an interview. “But especially after the war in Ukraine and the inflation that led to the cost of living crisis, I think there are a lot of people now who are concerned and asking, ‘Well, can we afford this?'”
autopsy
There are many explanations for why the Greens did poorly at the election.
Centrist parties have chipped away at the Greens’ support by incorporating much of the Greens’ agenda into their own policies. Yet the Green Party’s own identity has not been fully developed. That makes the Greens appear to be too narrowly focused on climate, which has slipped down the rankings of voters’ priorities.
But there is a broader trend working against European Greens. The backlash against climate change policies has intensified as part of a broader culture war.
In many places, the nationalist agenda of far-right parties is reinforced by populist appeals to economically strapped citizens. Right-wing forces have surged among the electorate, specifically targeting the Green Party, which they see as unfit to protect poorer working people in a rapidly changing society.
For many voters, the Greens failed to show that their proposals were not just expensive anti-growth policies but would hurt the poorest the most. Some believe they are urban elites who are ignoring the costs of transitioning to less climate-damaging lifestyles.
Mr Eckhout said a line of attack against his party had developed. “They’re describing this shift as a very elitist shift that’s only for ‘Tesla people,'” he said. “And I can tell you, Tesla doesn’t have a good image anymore.”
Then there are European farmers, who have spent the past two years vociferously protesting against green policies, specifically rejecting those that seek to limit the use of chemicals in agriculture and introduce nature conservation measures that would encroach on farmland. The protests frightened moderate voters and politicians.
In Europe, the Greens poll particularly poorly in the countries of their governing coalition, mainly Germany.
The massive youth movement that helped the Greens win a fifth of the vote in Germany five years ago has taken a hit from becoming part of the ruling coalition. “The party was unable to please the young progressive voters they wanted to welcome while appeasing wealthier moderate voters,” said Sudha David-Wilp, regional director of the BDF’s Berlin office. fund.
The Greens’ poor performance in Germany has been met with widespread reaction as the country is the EU’s most populous country and therefore holds the most seats in the European Parliament’s 720-seat parliament.
green buds
The outlook for the Greens is not bad everywhere. One possible reason for the Green Party’s strong performance in Nordic countries such as Denmark, Finland and Sweden is higher economic prosperity and longer debates on climate change.
They have made surprising gains in Eastern and Southern Europe, including Italy and Spain, where Greens have historically been weak and in some cases have never even elected Green representatives to the European Parliament.
Perhaps the Greens’ most complex political picture emerges in the Netherlands, a country where the climate change movement is particularly strong. the uniquely organized and powerful farmers’ movement; and the wildly successful far-right movement that won national elections late last year.
There, the Greens officially campaigned alongside the Social Democratic Labor Party and won the election, relegating the far-right party to second place.
For the Greens, this successful collaboration could serve as a model for coalitions in upcoming local and national elections elsewhere in the EU, Eickhout said.
“It’s absolutely vital that the Greens have broader credibility not just on climate,” he said, adding that working with the Social Democrats could help create a convincing progressive alternative to the conservatives and the far right. All while maintaining a Green Party climate.
Who pays?
The Greens’ poor performance prompted a chorus of lamentations that the EU Green Deal – the set of policies the EU has adopted to combat climate change and limit its own contribution to climate change – is dead.
Experts say these fears are unrealistic: Many policies aimed at achieving ambitious goals of reducing carbon emissions are already enacted into law.
But Simone Tagliapietra, an expert on EU climate policy at Brussels, a major think tank in Brussels, warned that policy delays and dilution due to a loss of green momentum were very real risks.
Defunding Green New Deal policies could also undermine their effectiveness. To avoid this, he added, the EU should push for a joint budget, invest in a green transition and protect the poorest from any economic fallout.
“A radical Green New Deal transformation raises thorny questions about who will foot the bill,” Mr Tagliapietra said. He added: “If these costs end up falling disproportionately on ordinary workers – not to mention the poorest and The most vulnerable communities – this transition will exacerbate inequality and become socially and politically unviable. “This is not an option. “
Christopher Schutz Reporting from Berlin.
