For those seeking balance in a polarizing moment in American politics, Gallup is providing news that may seem good at first glance. The polling firm found that Americans are becoming increasingly socially liberal but generally remain economically conservative. Using a rough definition of libertarianism and classical liberal thought, the growing combination of social liberalism and economic conservatism sounds encouraging. But the ideological shifts have been one-sided, with Democrats moving far more to the left than Republicans to the right — threatening not the balance but the broader partisan divide.
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Social liberalism and economic conservatism
“Over the past quarter-century, Americans’ views on social issues have become more liberal,” Gallup noted earlier this month. “At the same time, Americans have become more liberal on economic issues. “Still leaning toward conservatives, but the proportion leaning toward liberals has been trending slightly upward.”
Whether or not you support specific changes in public opinion, large-scale ideological shifts are always at least interesting and have potential implications for policy and culture. Could these trends help heal the partisan wounds of recent years? I wouldn’t bet on it.
Gallup added: “Both trends toward more liberal views than in the past were driven by U.S. Democrats; neither Republicans nor independents have become more liberal in their views over time.”
…or just conservative Republicans and true liberal Democrats
Specifically, in 2004, 39% of Democrats described their views on social issues as “liberal/very liberal”; by 2024, 69% of Democrats would describe themselves this way. In 2004, 4% of Republicans and 28% of independents described themselves as “liberal/very liberal” on social issues; this year, 3% of Republicans and 28% of independents described themselves that way.
During this period, the share of Americans who describe themselves as “conservative/very conservative” on social issues rose from 64% of Republicans, 24% of independents, and 20% of Democrats to 74% of Republicans and 23% of independents. % and 6%.
In 2004, 28% of Democrats said they were “liberal/very liberal” on the economy, a proportion that will grow to 49% in 2024. 3%, and for independents the figure rose from 16% to 18%.
The number of people who describe themselves as “conservative/very conservative” on economic issues increased from 64% of Republicans, 36% of independents and 26% of Democrats to 82% of Republicans, 35% of independents and 5% of Democrats.
“Americans” as a whole are not becoming more liberal on social and economic issues. Independents are not budging (most are moderates), Republicans are turning conservative, and Democrats are turning liberal enough to change the national average—or so they describe themselves.
The figures are based on self-descriptions rather than specific positions on trade, abortion, drugs or regulation. Twenty years ago, “economic conservatism” might have meant free markets, low taxes and cutting red tape. “Social liberalism” can be interpreted as supporting abortion, tolerating marijuana, and supporting civil liberties. 2024 is a year of ideological confusion, with Republicans pursuing protectionism and more support for state guidance of the economy. Democrats have adopted identitarian concerns and prioritized control of “disinformation” over protecting free speech. Republicans and Democrats describe Their contrasts are increasingly stark, but their reference points for “liberal” and “conservative” may be different than in the past.
Differences over specific issues highlight divisions
Interestingly, progressive blogger Kevin Drum looked at 2021 issue-specific support numbers and concluded that while Republicans have moved to the right, Democrats have moved much more to the left.
“Since at least 2004, progressives have been publicly bragging about pushing the Democratic Party left—and they have succeeded,” he wrote. “Democrats have grown further and further away from the median voter over the years.”
On issues such as immigration, abortion, same-sex marriage, guns and taxes, he found that Democrats moved strongly toward liberal positions, while Republicans became more conservative — or not.
“Among Republicans, the most extreme views on abortion (always illegal) have risen by about 2 points since 2000. Among Democrats, the most extreme views (always legal) have risen 20 points ,” he pointed out. Both Democrats and Republicans have significantly increased their support for same-sex marriage.
“The Democratic Party has moved far further to the left over the past two decades than the Republican Party has moved to the right,” Durham concluded. He expressed personal satisfaction that the Democratic Party has moved closer to his preferred progressive positions, but stressed that this has come at a cost: “Not conservative It’s the liberals who have turned American politics into a culture war.”
Different questions may produce different results. But Durham’s analysis of specific political points of disagreement is closely tied to shifts in ideological self-identity.
This is also a battle of the sexes
Interestingly, the growing divide between Democrats and Republicans is similar to what John Burn-Murdoch found in an article published in January. Financial Times. He noted ideological shifts among young men and women in many countries.
“The trend in most countries is for women to move to the left and men to stay put,” Byrne-Murdoch writes. “In the United States, … women aged 18 to 30 are now 30 percent more liberal than men of the same age. percentage points.” In contrast, American men lean to the center-right in terms of ideology and issue positions.
For future partisan political competition, this could be…interesting. As if the relationship between the sexes wasn’t already tense enough.
There’s not much encouragement here for those seeking a peaceful resolution to this country’s political wars, and for liberals seeking a homeland. The data suggests that the divide between the two major parties is deepening, with Democrats moving further to the left. This magical blend of economic and social freedom has yet to appeal to either of the major parties.
The growing ideological divide and the challenge of finding political solutions that can bridge this divide make us live in interesting times. Of course, living in such times has been described as a curse.
