Unable to back down, Israel and Hezbollah are one step closer to all-out war

The UN chief has said an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah would be “a disaster”. But for David Kamari, who lives on the Israeli side of the border and is under fire almost daily, it would be a solution.

Last month, a Hezbollah rocket fired from Lebanon landed in his front garden in the border town of Kiryat Shmona, causing multiple cracks in his house and filling it with rubble.

He pointed to the gaping hole in the wall where shrapnel had torn, just inches away. Then to the hills above us, where Hezbollah-controlled territory begins.

“Every day, every night: bombs. [It’s a] problem,” he said. “I was born here. If you stayed here for one night, you would go crazy.

David still lives in his rubble-strewn house, shrapnel tangled with the remains of a television. Outside was the black wreckage of his car, destroyed by the fire that swept through his front yard after the rocket attack.

Most of the town of Shimona was evacuated after the Hamas attack on October 7, when Hezbollah rockets rained down in support of its Palestinian allies.

David was one of the few who stayed. “I’ve lived here 71 years,” he said. “I’m not going. I’m in the army and I’m not afraid.”

His solution? “Fight Hezbollah; kill Hezbollah,” he said.

Israel launched a severe counterattack Hezbollahkilling senior commanders and striking targets farther inside Lebanon.

Hezbollah has launched larger drones and missiles across the border this month, raising threats from both sides. Earlier this week, the group released drone footage of military installations and civilian infrastructure in the Israeli city of Haifa.

Tough talk has long been part of a shared deterrence strategy, with both sides seen as wary of all-out war.

But as the tit-for-tat conflict continues and more than 60,000 Israelis remain evacuated from their homes in the north, there are signs that both Israeli leaders and its citizens are ready to back a military option to bolster their strength.

Shmona Mayor Avichai Stern showed me the scene where a rocket hit the street near his office last week.

“I don’t think any country in the world would accept having their citizens opened fire on a daily basis,” Mayor Stern said.

“Sitting here like lambs to the slaughter, waiting for the day when they attack us like we saw in the south, is unacceptable. Everyone understands that the choice is war now or war later.”

The dangerous stalemate here hinges largely on Israel’s war more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) south of Gaza.

A ceasefire there has also helped calm tensions in the north, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is letting both conflicts continue, promising far-right government allies to destroy Hamas before ending the war in Gaza.

Earlier this week, even an Israeli military spokesman said the target might be unrealistic.

“The public is misled by the idea that we can destroy Hamas or make Hamas disappear,” Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told Israeli television.

On the Lebanese side of the border, more than 90,000 people have been evacuated, and the mood of those who remain is equally grim.

Fatima Belhas lives a few miles (7 kilometers) from the Israeli border, near Jbal el Botm.

She said she would feel scared earlier when Israel bombed the area, but has since come to terms with the bombing and no longer considers leaving.

“Where am I going?” she asked. “[Others] Have relatives elsewhere. But how can I impose it on such a person? We have no money.

“Maybe it would be better to die at home with dignity,” she said. “We grew up in resistance. We will not be driven from our land like the Palestinians.”

Hussein Aballan recently left his village of Mays al Jbal, about 6 miles (10 kilometers) from the town of Kiryat Shmona on the Lebanese side of the border.

Life there has become impossible, he said, with communications and electricity unreliable and few shops open for business.

He told the BBC that the remaining dozens of families were mainly elderly people who refused to leave their homes and farms.

But he supports Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel.

“Everyone in the South [of Lebanon] It has gone through years of aggression but has become stronger,” he said. “Only through resistance are we strong.

Although this border conflict will be difficult for people on both sides, a full-scale war will escalate the crisis to a different level.

While some Beirut residents packed their suitcases and prepared their passports in case of an all-out conflict, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said this week that no part of Israel would be spared.

Hezbollah is a well-equipped and well-trained army supported by Iran; Israel is an advanced military power with the United States as its ally.

An all-out war could be devastating to both sides.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said it would be a “disaster” […] Unimaginable”.

The problem facing Israel is how to stop the rocket attacks and allow its people to return to the country’s abandoned north.

The problem facing Hezbollah is how to stop rocket attacks when its ally Hamas comes under attack by Israeli forces in Gaza.

The longer this goes on, the greater the risk of miscalculation and the greater the pressure on the Israeli government to resolve the issue.

The Hamas attack on October 7 changed Israel’s security calculus. Many people with homes near the border – and some in positions of power – say past deals with Hezbollah are no longer enough.

Tom Perry lives in Malkiya kibbutz, next to the Lebanese border fence. Earlier this month, he was out drinking with friends when a Hezbollah rocket struck in front of his home.

“I think the Secretary-General’s warning is correct— [war] It would be a disaster for the region,” he said.

“But unfortunately, it seems we have no choice. No agreement can last forever because they want our death. Unless Israel can eliminate Hezbollah, we are destined to be in war forever.”

He said Israeli leaders had lost all credibility after the Oct. 7 attack and had no strategy for peace.

“They need to quit – everybody. The biggest failure of our military and our country was October 7th, and they were our leaders. We don’t need these leaders.”

When the conflict in Israel ends, demands for political change are likely to increase.

Many believe the Israeli prime minister is playing for time: caught between growing calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and growing support for a war in the north.