Author: Guy Falconbridge and Lydia Kelly
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia, the world’s largest nuclear power, may shorten the decision-making time set out in its official policy on the use of nuclear weapons if Moscow believes the threat is growing, the chairman of parliament’s defense committee said.
The war in Ukraine has triggered the biggest confrontation between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, and Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month that Russia may change its official nuclear doctrine to set out the conditions for the use of such weapons.
Russia’s state news agency RIA on Sunday quoted Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the defense committee of the lower house of Russia’s parliament, as saying that the timing of the decision to use such weapons could change if the threat increases.
“If we see an increase in challenges and threats, it means we can correct something about the timing of the use of nuclear weapons and the decision to use nuclear weapons,” RIA Novosti quoted Kartapolov as saying.
Kartapolov, who once commanded Russian troops in Syria and now serves as a lawmaker for the ruling United Russia party, added that it was too early to talk about specific changes in nuclear doctrine.
Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine 2020 sets out when its president would consider using nuclear weapons: broadly as a response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction or conventional weapons “when the very existence of the country is threatened.”
Russia and the United States are by far the world’s largest nuclear powers, possessing about 88% of the world’s nuclear weapons, according to the Federation of American Scientists.
Both countries are modernizing their nuclear arsenals, with China rapidly increasing its nuclear arsenal.
Putin said this month that Russia did not need to use nuclear weapons to ensure victory in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s strongest signal yet that Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II would not escalate into a nuclear war.
Pressure from hardliners
But he also said that he would not rule out the possibility of changing Russia’s nuclear theory. That was seen as a nod to pressure from hard-liners among Russia’s elite who believe Putin should be able to move more quickly on nuclear escalations and lower the threshold for use.
Putin said again last week that nuclear doctrine may have to change as Russia’s adversaries develop ultra-low-yield nuclear devices.
As the Soviet Union collapsed, both Moscow and Washington slashed their weapons stockpiles, but the Cold War arms control architecture has collapsed and many diplomats say they now fear a new arms race.
Top White House aides said this month that the United States may have to deploy more strategic nuclear weapons in the coming years to deter growing threats from Russia, China and other adversaries.
Russia has expressed interest in discussing arms control with the United States, but that is part of a broader discussion involving European security and Ukraine’s future.
The U.S. “2022 Nuclear Posture Review Report” stated that both Russia and China are developing their respective nuclear arsenals, so by the 2030s “the United States will face two major nuclear powers as strategic competitors and potential opponents for the first time in its history.”
