Throughout Iran’s presidential campaign, in debates, rallies and speeches, there has been a singular presence: Donald J. Trump.
To hear six candidates tell it, the former president’s victory in the 2024 White House race is a foregone conclusion. They say the pressing question facing Iranian voters when they go to the polls on Friday is who is best suited to deal with him.
They almost never mention President Biden, or the many polls that show the outcome of the U.S. election will be extremely close. Instead, Trump’s name was mentioned again and again.
“Wait a minute and you’ll see what happens when Trump comes,” one candidate, cleric Mostafa Pourmohammadi, said during a recent televised debate. “We have to be ready for negotiations.” Another candidate, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, accused his opponent of “Trumpphobia” during a debate, insisting that only Only he can deal with him.
In one of Purmohammadi’s campaign posters, he and Trump face each other, gazing at each other. “The only person who can stand in front of Trump is me,” it read.
Iranians have good reason to be wary of Trump being re-elected as president. It was Trump who unilaterally withdrew the United States from Iran’s agreement with world powers on its nuclear program, despite repeated confirmation by U.N. inspectors that Iran was complying with its commitments. Biden has been trying to restore the deal since taking office, but to no avail.
Trump also imposed tough economic sanctions targeting Iran’s oil revenue and international banking transactions, and those sanctions remain in place under Biden. These measures, along with leadership corruption and economic mismanagement, caused Iran’s economy to struggle, causing the currency to plummet and inflation to rise.
Analysts say the shadow cast by Trump shows how important foreign policy is to the election, with all six candidates – five conservatives and one reformist – acknowledging that any hope of economic relief is tied to Tehran’s ties to the world Inseparable.
“The potential return of the Trump administration has become a taboo in the presidential debates,” said Vali Nasr, a former Obama administration official and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.
“Hard-liners believe their toughness will tame Trump, while moderate and reformist candidates believe Trump will react to the hard-liners by putting more pressure on Iran, suggesting they are more capable of changing the dialogue with the United States,” “He said.
In Iranian political circles, concerns about a Trump resurgence began long before the special presidential election to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May. Two Iranian officials said the foreign ministry established an informal working group this spring to begin preparations for Trump’s return.
Iran has held multiple indirect talks with the United States this year and last through Oman and Qatar to exchange prisoners and defuse regional tensions, as well as with the Trump and Biden administrations to revive the nuclear deal.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said Iran would continue indirect negotiations if Trump is elected but would not meet with him directly. They said they discussed whether waiting to deal with Trump would make more sense than striking a deal with Biden now, only to have it ripped apart by Republicans — whether by Trump or other future Republican presidents.
Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, the conservative speaker of Iran’s parliament who is considered a front-runner in the presidential race, put it this way: “When we face an enemy like Trump who acts with dishonesty, we must be careful. Ghalibaf, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said that restoring the nuclear deal and lifting sanctions are among his top priorities. He said that if the president does not make a decision in time, he “will either have to sell Iran to Trump or else.” creating tension in the country”.
Trump has repeatedly said during his presidency that his policy of maximum pressure on Iran is aimed at forcing the country to make concessions on its nuclear program and that he is not seeking regime change. He defended his policies in a virtual interview on the All In podcast last week.
“I’m going to make a fair deal with Iran; I’m going to make peace with Iran,” Trump said in the interview. He said his main goal was to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. “I put them in a position where they were negotiable,” he added, a statement that analysts disputed. “A kid can make a deal with them.”
In Iran’s theocratic system, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on all major state affairs, including negotiations with the United States and nuclear policy. But Iran’s president does set the domestic agenda and has some influence on foreign policy.
A campaign staffer for reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian said Iranian voters are worried about Trump. The staffer said by phone from Tehran that voters had contacted Pezeshkian’s campaign through social media to ask about the candidate’s plans to confront Trump.
Dr Pezeshkian has turned to former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the chief nuclear negotiator who helped seal the 2015 deal, as the face of his foreign policy. But Dr Pezeshkian’s advisers said his choice for foreign minister would be Abbas Araghchi, Zarif’s deputy and a member of the team that negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal.
In a televised roundtable discussion, Zarif told one of Dr. Pezeshkian’s conservative rivals that Iran had been able to increase its oil sales to pre-sanctions levels of 2 million barrels a day because Biden had “relaxed Unscrewed,” and added: “When Trump comes back, we’ll see what you do.
At a rally in Tehran on Monday, ultra-conservative candidate Saeed Jalili, who is also involved in the nuclear negotiations, quoted a famous quote from Qassim Suleimani to Trump. .
“Mr. Trump, you gambler, we are the ones who can deal with you,” Mr. Jalili said, drawing loud cheers and applause from the crowd.
Riley Nikunazar Contributed reporting.
