What are people in Moscow, Beijing and Delhi thinking?

As Americans choose their next president, the race is always closely watched around the world.

U.S. foreign policy and the actions of the White House have countless impacts on different regions around the world.

U.S. influence abroad is sure to play a role in Thursday’s first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

But this election is not only important for Ukraine, Israel and Gaza.

Eight of the BBC’s foreign correspondents explain why this election rematch is causing a stir where they are.

Author: Steve Rosenberg, Russia Editor, Moscow

Imagine you are Vladimir Putin. Who do you prefer to win the White House?

The man who called you a “killer” and pledged support for Ukraine? (That’s Joe Biden).

Or a candidate (Donald Trump) who criticizes U.S. military aid to Kiev and says he will encourage Russia to “do whatever it wants” to any NATO member that does not meet defense spending guidelines.

The Kremlin leader, always keen to surprise, has said publicly that he would actually prefer Joe Biden to stay in office because of his “predictability.”

However, Russia should be highly skeptical of such public support. Moscow is likely to view the election of a U.S. president who is skeptical of NATO and Ukraine as three lemons on Russia’s geopolitical fruit machine.

This is not to say that Moscow has guaranteed payment. The Kremlin was disappointed with Trump’s first term as president.

In 2016, a Russian official admitted to me that he celebrated Trump’s victory with a cigar and a bottle of champagne. But the champagne disappeared. The Russian authorities had hoped for an improvement in Russian-American relations, but this never materialized.

Who’s to say that Trump’s re-election as president wouldn’t be equally frustrating for Moscow.

Regardless of who wins the race for the White House, Russian authorities will be watching closely for signs of political instability and polarization after the U.S. election and looking for ways to benefit from it.

Author: Laura Bicker, China Correspondent, Beijing

Both candidates are vying to take a hard line against Beijing and adopt similar economic policies to deal with China’s rise, including raising tariffs on cheap Chinese goods.

But they have taken very different approaches to dealing with China’s regional influence.

Biden has strengthened ties there, hoping a united front would send a clear message to an increasingly assertive Beijing.

But when Trump was elected president, he became less focused on being a politician and more focused on what he believed to be the “best deal.” He has threatened to withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea unless Seoul pays Washington more money.

The biggest difference between the two is Taiwan.

Biden has repeatedly reiterated that he will defend the self-ruled island if President Xi Jinping fulfills his promise to unify Taiwan with China and use force if necessary.

But Trump accused Taiwan of sabotaging American businesses and expressed opposition to a bill that would provide U.S. aid to Taiwan. This has led some to question his willingness to provide aid to Taipei in its time of need.

When America votes, China is unlikely to have the upper hand in this fight.

Beijing believes an unpredictable Trump could weaken and divide U.S. allies in the region, but he could also trigger another trade war.

Nor would they be too keen on another four years of Biden in power. They believe his coalition-building has the potential to spark a new Cold War.

Author: Gordon Corera, security journalist, Kyiv

Perhaps no country is more important to the U.S. election than Ukraine.

It is no secret that U.S. support in the form of money and weapons is critical to sustaining the war effort in Ukraine. Few believe Europe can close any gap quickly or easily.

But in Kiev, most people aren’t as focused on the details of the campaign as you might think.

That’s because, as one person told me, November still feels so far away. There are more pressing concerns as cities come under attack from Russian glide bombs and Ukrainian troops fight to stop a Russian advance.

They were very aware of what was said about Ukraine during the campaign. When it comes to Donald Trump, analysts here know he’s talked about ending wars, and he’s talked about cutting aid.

While some worry he could pressure Ukraine into a deal Ukraine doesn’t like, experts warn it’s what someone does in office that matters, not what they say on the campaign trail or in debates.

It’s widely believed that even a Joe Biden win wouldn’t be able to stop the challenges, given how long it took Congress to pass the final aid package.

The stakes are therefore high for Ukraine, but it remains a bystander and Ukrainians have long learned to live with unpredictability.

Author: James Langdale, diplomatic correspondent in London

British policymakers told me they were somewhat uneasy about the US election.

To some extent, people are nervous about potential decisions that could affect the UK.

Will President Trump’s return to the White House weaken U.S. military support for Ukraine and curry favor with Vladimir Putin?

Will he fall out again with Europe over the NATO military alliance? Will he trigger a trade war with China?

Will Biden’s re-election as president intensify isolationism and protectionism in the United States? Can he still be physically ready for this role over the next four years?

On another level, there are broader concerns. Britain fears a close result on November 5 could lead to greater political violence than the storming of the Capitol in January 2021, but many American voters do not view the outcome as legitimate.

A crisis in American democracy could undermine America’s global leadership and embolden autocrats around the world.

All of this is worrying politicians from Britain’s two main parties as they prepare for the July 4 election.

Will they at some point have to choose between supporting democratic values ​​and maintaining close ties with their traditional allies? Will they have to choose between the United States and Europe on some major issue?

On top of that, in an increasingly uncertain world, the US election creates even more uncertainty for the UK.

By Yolande Knell, Middle East Correspondent

Both candidates are being closely watched because they know the race for the White House will have real consequences.

After the shocking attack on October 7, President Biden strongly supported Israel and continued to provide weapons to the country, even as he became more critical of the fighting and the killing of large numbers of Palestinian civilians.

Overall, polls show a higher share of Jewish Israelis think Trump is better for Israel than Biden. Most disapprove of Biden’s handling of the war. Palestinians widely believe he ignores their suffering.

Israelis recalled positively how Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as their capital and struck new deals to establish diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab countries.

He supported the Gaza war but also urged Israel to “end this”, arguing its image was being tarnished.

While the Palestinians see little hope in a Biden second term, Trump may see their situation worse. The former president promised to cut off all U.S. aid to the Palestinians if elected.

In the long term, President Biden continues to support a two-state solution — an established international peace formula — although he has given no specific plan to achieve it. Trump questions the feasibility of an independent Palestinian state.

Conventional wisdom holds that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to see Trump return to power. However, the former president is said to be unhappy with his recognition of Biden’s victory in 2020.

By Samira Hussain, Delhi-based journalist

In the eyes of the White House, India is in a good position.

The United States views India as a geopolitical force that balances China. India also has the fifth largest economy in the world and is expected to become the third largest economy by 2030. Became prime minister for one term.

Although India has been accused of democratic backsliding and distortion of true economic conditions at home, given India’s strategic importance, these have no real impact on the United States.

Whatever happens in November, it will have no impact on India’s functioning on the global stage. Both candidates are known entities.

If Biden remains president, maintain the status quo, which means healthy trade relations and red carpet treatment. Just last year, Modi was in Washington for an official state visit, hosting a lavish reception at the White House in honor of the prime minister and addressing a joint session of Congress.

If Trump is re-elected, the only difference may be tone. He had previously called Modi an outstanding leader. Trump visited India in 2020, and tens of thousands came to Modi’s home state of Gujarat to meet the US president alongside the prime minister.

Proving that India can handle any political outcome.

Mexican journalist Will Grant reports

Mexicans recently held presidential elections and made a historic choice: electing Claudia Scheinbaum as the country’s first female president.

Her close ally, outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, formed an unlikely partnership with Donald Trump as he entered the White House . While Mexico’s relationship with Biden has been strained at times, the two neighbors have been finding common ground in key areas such as immigration and cross-border trade.

Once in power, Sheinbaum will need to prove that she is more than an extension of the previous administration — and what better way to do that than through ties to Washington? So in working with Biden or a potential second President Trump, she may try to differ in tone and approach from her predecessors, if not in substance.

In an interview with the BBC during the campaign, Claudia Scheinbaum said she was not worried about the prospect of the pair winning the White House. “I will fight for the Mexicans,” she told me.

Mexicans themselves, however, do not view Trump’s presidency favorably. When he launched his campaign down the infamous golden escalator in 2016, he called Mexican immigrants “drug dealers, criminals, rapists,” and those provocative comments alone still unsettle many here.

Jessica Murphy, BBC News, Toronto

America’s northern neighbors have some concerns about Trump’s re-election as president.

Trump has never been as popular in Canada as he is with some people in the United States. A poll earlier this year showed a majority of people feared American democracy would not survive four years of Trump.

Still, despite the strain that Trump’s presidency has put on bilateral relations, Canada has had some victories, notably its successful renegotiation of the North American trade deal.

As the U.S. election approaches in November, Canada’s political and business circles are already bracing for more trade turmoil.

It cannot be overstated how closely linked the two countries are, particularly economically – cross-border trade was worth around C$3.6 billion ($2.6 billion; £2.1 billion) every day last year.

As a result, plans for a formal review of trade deals, as well as Trump’s campaign thinking about imposing tariffs on global imports, have raised concerns.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau launched the Team Canada program, sending politicians, envoys and business leaders across the United States to privately and publicly promote Canada’s values.

Similar initiatives have proven successful during Trump’s presidency.

Trudeau said the country will be “ready for whatever is thrown at us.”