During Thursday night’s debate, President Biden told former President Donald J. Trump that the United States is “the envy of the world.”
After watching their performance, many American friends in Asia disagreed.
The back-and-forth between an aggressive Trump and an undecided Biden in Seoul, Singapore, Sydney and elsewhere has analysts worried — and not just about who might win.
“The whole thing is an unmitigated disaster,” Australian communications manager Simon Canning wrote on the .
Countries that look to the United States to counterbalance a rising China and curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have been trying to rebuild relations over the past four years after Trump’s first term deeply unsettled alliances in the region. Thursday night’s debate immediately resurfaced serious questions about how U.S. politics might affect stability in Asia.
Tan Keng Chi, who served as Singapore’s ambassador to the United States from 1996 to 2012, said the quality of the debate had declined compared with previous debates. Biden’s disjointed performance and Trump’s repeated attacks and factual inaccuracies have unsettled those who rely on the United States as a trusted global partner.
“Everyone is looking at visual effects now,” Ms. Chen said. “Does the candidate look like he can do the job? Or is age an issue? Facts don’t matter anymore. Civility has completely disappeared.
In Japan and South Korea, analysts are seeing the political winds shift toward Trump, raising new questions about Biden’s age and ability to project power.
“This is clearly a victory for Trump and a fatal blow to Biden’s campaign,” said Lee Byong-chul, a professor at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam National University in Seoul. “Compared to Biden, Trump looks very healthy. , Biden comes across as an old, stuttering, hard-of-hearing grandfather. We must now prepare for a second Trump administration.
In Japan, America’s biggest ally in Asia, officials almost always assiduously declare that they are happy to work with whomever the United States elects. But Trump’s comments in the debate that he doesn’t want to spend money on allies could reignite concerns that his approach to international relations is transactional rather than durable.
“My guess is that Japanese policymakers are thinking, ‘Well, it’s probably Trump, so we have to solidify the institutional ties as much as possible so he can’t undo them,'” political scientist Koichi Nakano said in Tokyo Sophia University. “It’s like tying yourself to a mast that’s probably going to sink very quickly, so it’s a false illusion of safety.”
If Trump wins, though, Japanese officials may feel less pressure from his potential demands from Tokyo to pay more for its own defense or for U.S. military bases in Japan.
Over the past two years, Japan has vowed to increase its defense budget and expand restrictions under its pacifist constitution, including buying more fighter jets and Tomahawk missiles, steps Trump pushed during his presidential visit to Japan.
Ichiro Fujisaki, Japan’s former ambassador to Washington, said of Trump that the increased spending and military purchases were “in line with what he has always thought.” “If we had acted contrary to what he said,” Mr. Fujisaki said, “we would have had to review our position, but we have not.”
Across the region, one of the most pressing concerns is that Trump could exacerbate widening tensions with China or destabilize the region’s fragile stability.
If Trump wins, Washington may adopt a strategy aimed at boosting U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China, “but this strategy will prioritize U.S. dominance and not necessarily a network of alliances and partnerships.” “In a collective sense, it makes sense,” said Don McLain Gill, a lecturer in international studies at De La Salle University in Manila. “As a transactional leader, there are concerns that Trump might give up. Key areas of U.S. commitment, such as Taiwan. “
On Chinese social media, the presidential debate is a hot topic on the Weibo platform. Chinese state media largely reported each candidate’s remarks – and their lack of handshakes – without adding much comment.
But in online comments, some users compared Trump’s red tie to a communist red scarf, and some social media commentators jokingly called Trump a “nation builder” because his leadership could accelerate China’s global rise.
Shares of Chinese company Wisesoft Co., whose Mandarin name translates to “Trump Wins Big,” rose 10% in Shenzhen trading on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
Social media hilarity aside, Shanghai-based international relations scholar Shen Dingli said the debate would only reinforce a point the Chinese government has long held: No matter who the next president is, U.S. policy toward China will be weakened, if not strengthened. It’s only going to get tougher.
Mr. Shen said the candidates debated who did a better job of managing trade with China, when in fact the Biden administration is continuing Trump-era tariffs.
He said: “Even if the Democratic Party urgently chooses a new, younger candidate, they will regard China as a long-term strategic threat, even more serious than Russia.” “I believe that China’s leaders have no illusions. “
It was clear after Thursday’s debate that few in the region are optimistic about any electoral scenario in the United States.
Kasit Piromya, the former Thai Foreign Minister and former Ambassador to the United States from 2008 to 2011, expressed regret for the current political situation in the United States.
“Where are the good people? Where are the brave people?” Kasit said, adding that Southeast Asian countries now have a responsibility to formulate their own foreign policy vision. “Why should I wait for Trump to turn bad? I should be able to organize myself, Maybe work with other friends too.
Zhang Jiayang, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said President Biden looked tired, while former President Trump sounded more unpredictable in terms of what he expected from other friendly countries and how to deal with China.
“This creates new problems in trying to manage relations with the United States,” he said. “By and large, policymakers want a clear, steadfast, and stable presence in the United States. One who is vacillating, weak, and unsteady is just as disturbing as one who is erratic and erratic.
“What you see are two extremes,” Mr. Zhang added. “It’s hard to imagine now what a more moderate center of America would look like.”
Report contributors: Damien Cave, Huang Ruili, Choi Sang-hoon, Wang Weiwei and Camille Elemia.
