President Joe Biden’s poor showing at the presidential debate on Thursday night, which saw former President Donald J. Trump respond with a shrug, caused anxiety among U.S. allies.
Trump, who has frequently disparaged NATO and even threatened to pull the United States out of the alliance, did nothing during the debate to assuage European concerns about his aversion to the military alliance.
When Biden asked him whether he would withdraw from NATO, Trump did not answer and just shrugged.
“I was very worried before this debate and even more worried now,” said Jana Puglierin, director of the German office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Trump may or may not want to formally leave NATO, but he has every means at his disposal to undermine it.”
At the heart of NATO is Article 5 of its charter, which obliges each member state to commit to the defense of all other members. “Deterrence is all about credibility, and deep down, Number 5 is always something you understand,” Ms. Prelin said. “So it’s up to the president of the United States to see this as a credible threat.”
She said that given Trump’s skepticism of alliances, European countries that rely on U.S. commitments for protection worry that he might try to build bilateral ties with Europe “and make them transactional.”
Former NATO assistant secretary-general Camille Grande said that in a second term, people around Trump will “want to translate his instincts into policy rather than saying, ‘Mr. President, this is a bad idea.’ .
“But the worst part is his unpredictability while Europe is at war,” he added. “But in the middle of a war, it would be harder to manage if he suddenly suggested an overnight peace settlement or something that would make American security guarantees hollow,” Mr. Grand said.
Trump boasted late Thursday that he had forced European countries to increase military spending, even though military spending has grown faster under Biden. Mr Grand said the Europeans had understood they had to do more for their defence, in fact spending $130 billion more a year than in 2014.
But no matter who is president, “we need to make sure we can defend Europe with less America.”
NATO supporters are not the only international observers uneasy about the debate. The back-and-forth between an aggressive Trump and a hesitant Biden has analysts worried — and not just about who might win the November election.
Sergey Radchenko, a historian at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, wrote on Xi Jinping’s hope,” he said, referring to Russia and its leader. China, the most powerful competitor of the United States.
“I’m worried about the image that’s projected to the outside world,” he continued. “This is not the image of leadership. This is the image of ultimate decline.
Regardless of who becomes president, the United States faces significant global challenges—in Asia, from a rising China and a nuclear-armed North Korea recently backed by Putin; In Europe, Russia’s war against Ukraine; in the Middle East, Israel’s war against Hamas threatens to spread to southern Lebanon and even Iran.
Amid the raucous debate, there was little substance on foreign policy. Trump continued to insist, without explanation, that he could have stopped Putin from invading Ukraine or Hamas from invading Israel, and that he could have quickly ended both conflicts.
Mr. Biden cited his efforts to rally allies to aid Ukraine and confront Russia. “I have 50 other countries in the world supporting Ukraine, including Japan and South Korea,” he said.
French analyst François Heisberg said that for some, the debate made Trump’s presidential election, which was already considered a possibility, more likely. “So on all issues this debate is a confirmation of Europe’s concerns, some of which have become embedded in people’s thinking.”
“People are hearing Trump say he wants to cut aid to Ukraine, so that’s going to be at the center of the debate,” he said, adding that Trump also expressed his fondness for Putin as a strong leader.
On Israel and Gaza, however, “I’m not sure how much of an impact this will have,” Mr. Heisberg said. “You can’t move the embassy to Jerusalem twice.”
In addition to existing concerns about Trump’s elusiveness, which this debate only confirmed, there are new concerns about Biden’s ability to govern. One of the most critical assessments came from Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. In a social media post, he compared Biden to Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius, who “passed the baton to his irresponsible son Commodus, whose disastrous reign led to the fall of Rome” decline, thus screwing up its own inheritance.”
“It’s important to manage your sunset schedule,” Mr. Sikorski added.
The uproar over the debate echoed across Ukraine on Friday.
Popular radio host Bogdan Butkevich wrote on social media that of Biden, “His main task is to convince voters of his energy and willingness to govern.” However, he added , “He can’t do that. So the likelihood of him being replaced by another Democratic candidate increases.”
Trump said he found it unacceptable for the Kremlin to retain occupied land, which provided some comfort to some. The Ukrainian news outlet Kyiv Independent’s headline read: “Trump rejects Putin’s peace terms, while Biden unsettles Democrats.”
Russian media described the debate as a sign of U.S. weakness and chaos. Russian lawmaker Dmitry Novikov told a state television talk show on Friday that the outcome was “in our favour”. “Instability within an opponent is always a good thing.”
In Asia, the debate has once again raised serious questions about how U.S. politics might affect stability. Trump’s tenure has deeply unsettled alliances in the region, and countries that want to see the United States counterbalance China’s influence and curtail North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have spent the past four years trying to rebuild ties with Washington.
“This is clearly a victory for Trump and a fatal blow to Biden’s campaign,” said Lee Byong-chul, a professor at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam National University in Seoul.
“We must now prepare for a second Trump administration,” he added.
Japan is America’s main ally in Asia, and officials almost always assiduously declare that they are happy to work with whomever the United States elects. But Trump said during the debate that he didn’t want to spend money to protect allies, which could reignite concerns that he views international relations as transactional rather than enduring.
“My guess is that Japanese policymakers are thinking, ‘Well, it’s probably Trump, so we have to solidify the institutional ties as much as possible so he can’t undo them,'” political scientist Koichi Nakano said in Tokyo Sophia University. “It’s like tying yourself to a mast that’s probably going to sink very quickly, so it’s a false illusion of safety.”
In recent years, India has worked to overcome long-standing mistrust and expand military and trade ties with Washington. While Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a cordial relationship with Trump during his presidency, the Indian establishment sees Biden as a steady hand who understands how alliances work and how to contain geopolitical risks.
Dr. Tara Khatta, a former senior official on India’s National Security Council, pointed out that Trump is unpredictable and may change his stance – for example, if Beijing offers him better trade terms, he will change his current tough attitude towards China. That uncertainty makes calculations difficult for India, which shares a border with China and has a longstanding rivalry with Beijing.
“We are now hedging against China,” she said. “Because you’re not quite sure what’s going to happen in America.”
In China, the presidential debate is a hot topic on social media platform Weibo. Chinese state media largely reported each candidate’s remarks – and their lack of handshakes – without adding much comment.
Shen Dingli, an international relations scholar in Shanghai, said the debate only reinforced what the Chinese government has long thought: No matter who the next president is, U.S. policy toward China will only get tougher.
It was clear after Thursday’s debate that few Asian analysts are optimistic about America’s electoral options.
“Where are the good people? Where are the brave people?” said Kasit Piromya, a former Thai foreign minister and ambassador to Washington. Southeast Asian countries must have their own foreign policy vision, he added.
“Why should I wait for Trump to turn bad?” he said.
Report contributors: Damien Cave, Huang Ruili, Choi Sang-hoon, Wang Weiwei, Camille Elemia, Mujib Mashar, Segolena Lestradic, Mark Santora and Oleg Matznev.
