On June 27, 2024, Tehran, Iran, before the early presidential election, a citizen stood in front of a candidate poster for the 14th presidential election on the street.
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A low-key moderate and a close associate of Iran’s supreme leader are neck-and-neck in the vote count in a sudden presidential election in which voters show apathy towards economic hardship and social restrictions.
Provisional results from the interior ministry showed more than 14 million votes had been counted so far in Friday’s vote, with the lone moderate candidate Masoud Pezeshkian winning more than 5.9 million votes over his hardline challenger the former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili won more than 5.5 million votes.
Some insiders said turnout was around 40%, lower than Iran’s clerical rulers had expected, while witnesses told Reuters polling stations in Tehran and some other cities were not crowded.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency said a second round of elections was “very likely” to choose the next president, following the death of Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.
If no candidate wins at least 50% plus one of all votes cast (including blank votes), a runoff is held between the top two candidates on the first Friday after the results are announced.
The election coincides with rising regional tensions over Israel’s war with Iran’s allies Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its rapidly advancing nuclear program.
While the election is unlikely to bring about a major shift in policy in the Islamic Republic, its outcome could affect the succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 85-year-old Supreme Leader of Iran who has been in power since 1989 By.
Civilian institutions sought high turnouts to offset a legitimacy crisis triggered by public dissatisfaction with economic hardship and restrictions on political and social freedoms.
The next president is not expected to bring about any major policy shifts on Iran’s nuclear program or support for Middle East militias, as Khamenei has the final say on the nation’s top matters.
Supporters of Saeed Jalili, a candidate for the June 28 presidential election, chant slogans during a campaign meeting in Tehran, Iran, Monday, June 24, 2024. One of six candidates to replace President Ebrahim Raisi in the election on Sunday.
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However, the president is responsible for the day-to-day running of the government and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policies.
Pezeshkian’s views contrast sharply with those of Jalili, who advocates détente with the West, economic reform, social liberalization and political pluralism.
Analysts say a victory for Jalili, a staunch anti-Western man, would herald a potentially more hostile turn in the Islamic Republic’s foreign and domestic policies.
Limited choice
The election is a contest between a tightly controlled group of three hardline candidates and a low-profile moderate candidate loyal to the supreme leader. Hardline regulators approved only six candidates from an initial field of 80, before two hardline candidates withdrew.
Tasnim reported: “According to unconfirmed reports, the election is likely to enter the second round… Jalili and Pezeshkian will participate in the second round.”
Critics of the civilian establishment say low turnout in recent years shows the system’s legitimacy has been eroded. The turnout for the 2021 presidential election was 48%, and the turnout for the March congressional elections was 41%, a record low.
All candidates have vowed to revive a flagging economy plagued by mismanagement, state corruption and reimposed sanctions since the United States abandoned the Tehran nuclear deal in 2018.
“I think Jalili is the only candidate who raises issues of justice, fighting corruption and providing value to the poor. … Most importantly, he does not link Iran’s foreign policy to the nuclear deal,” said Farzan, 45. -A veteran artist from the city of Karaj.
Voters are divided
Pezeshkian is loyal to Iran’s theocracy and has the support of reformists who have been largely marginalized in Iran in recent years.
“We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any invasive or inhumane behavior towards women,” Pezeshkian said after the vote.
A man holds up a banner during a campaign rally for reformist candidate Massoud Pezeshkian at Afrasiyabi Stadium in Tehran ahead of the upcoming presidential election in Iran on June 23, 2024 Small election flag.
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He was referring to the 2022 death of a young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, while in the custody of morality police for allegedly violating mandatory Islamic dress codes.
The unrest over Amini’s death escalated into the largest demonstrations against Iran’s clerical rulers in years.
Pezeshkian is trying to revive enthusiasm among reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls over the past four years as most young people are dissatisfied with political and social restrictions. He could also benefit from the failure of his rivals to consolidate hardline votes.
The #ElectionCircus hashtag has been widely used by Iranians on
