Johnny Cotton
PARIS (Reuters) – French voters cast their ballots on Sunday in the first round of snap parliamentary elections that could usher in the country’s first far-right government since World War II. It will bring huge changes to the core of the EU.
French President Emmanuel Macron shocked the country this month by announcing the vote after his centrist coalition was defeated in the European elections by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). Her Eurosceptic, anti-immigration party has long been ostracized but is now closer to power than ever.
Voting opens at 0600 GMT and ends at 1600 GMT in small towns and 1800 GMT in large cities, when the first exit polls of the night are expected to be taken as well as seat projections for the decisive second round a week later.
However, the electoral system makes it difficult to estimate the precise distribution of seats in the 577-seat Congress, and the final results will not be known until the end of voting on July 7.
“We will win an absolute majority,” Le Pen said in a newspaper interview on Wednesday, predicting that her protege Jordan Bardella, 28, would become prime minister. Her party has a high-spending economic plan and seeks to reduce immigration.
If RN does win an outright majority, French diplomacy could plunge into an unprecedented period of turmoil: Macron has said he will remain president until the end of his term in 2027, while Bardella vie for a say.
France has experienced three periods of “cohabitation” in its postwar history, in which presidents and governments came from opposing political camps, but never before has such contrasting worldviews competed at the top of the country.
Bardera has said he will challenge Macron on global issues. France could go from pillar of the EU to a thorn in its side, demanding a return of its contribution to the bloc’s budget, clashing with Brussels over its European Commission position and reversing Macron’s calls for greater EU unity and defense assertiveness.
An apparent Nationalist victory would also create uncertainty about France’s position in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Le Pen has a history of pro-Russian sentiment, and while the party now says it will help Ukraine defend itself against Russian invaders, it has also drawn red lines, such as refusing to provide long-range missiles.
“Divisive vote for RN”
Polls show that the Republican Party is far ahead with 33-36% of the popular vote, the hastily formed left-wing coalition New Popular Front came in second with 28-31%, and Macron’s centrist alliance came in third on the 20th. twenty three%.
The New Popular Front encompasses a broad spectrum of parties, from the moderate center-left to the far-left, Eurosceptic, anti-NATO Insurgent Party, led by one of Macron’s most strident opponents, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. lead.
Vincent Martini, a political science professor at the University of Nice and Ecole Polytechnique, said it was difficult to predict how poll numbers would translate into seats in the National Assembly because of the way elections work.
A candidate can be elected in the first round if he wins an absolute majority of the votes in his district, but this is rare. Most constituencies require a second round of voting, in which all candidates who received at least 12.5% of registered voters’ votes in the first round will participate. The one with the highest score wins.
“If you have a very high level of participation, there could be a third party or a fourth party involved in the fight. So, of course there is a risk of a split vote, and we know that split votes are good for national rallies,” Martini said.
For decades, as the far right grew in popularity, voters and parties that did not support it united against it whenever it came close to state power, but that may not be the case this time.
Martini said no one knew whether candidates from Macron’s camp would consider withdrawing from the second round to give left-wing rivals a chance to defeat the Republicans, or vice versa.
Le Pen and Bardera have tried to make their party’s image more acceptable to the mainstream, including by denouncing anti-Semitism. Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, was the founder and long-time leader of the precursor to the National Front and had a history of publicly making anti-Semitic remarks.
But critics say the registered nurse’s overtures to Jews are just a front that allows her to deny accusations of racism while continuing to smear Muslims and foreigners.
