This debate and its aftermath have crystallized a few things in my mind, and I thought I’d jot them down. This topic is outside my area of academic expertise, so I know that most or all of my observations may be wrong. I also hope other people do it all better than me. But I thought I’d pass on my thoughts to others, just like an American.
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[1.] In my opinion, the current situation highlights the main issues of the Democratic Party. Many Democrats are certainly aware of Biden’s cognitive decline. They must have realized the danger this posed to the country and to their own electoral prospects.
They have ample opportunity to force the president to step aside in time to find an alternative candidate who can exploit Trump’s vast political weaknesses. They worry about Harris becoming the obvious replacement and they worry about her becoming a failed candidate, so it doesn’t take a masterful political chess player to foresee that this could become an issue in 2020. As difficult as it is to remove a president from office—indeed, as difficult as it is to get most people to acknowledge their cognitive decline—the job of a well-functioning political party is to be able to accomplish these tasks.
[2.] The current situation highlights a major problem for the Republican Party. Even if you support Trump and agree with his policies, answer this honestly: Twenty years ago, would you have wanted someone like him as your candidate? Put aside whether you think he’s the lesser of two evils: Do you trust him to remain calm and composed in a foreign policy crisis? Do you think he is an inspiring leader? Do you think he is a worthy successor to the president you admire, whether Washington, Lincoln, Reagan, Coolidge or anyone else?
Even if you think his actions on January 6, 2021 were not as bad as they were described, do you think that actually says something about his character and trustworthiness? Do you believe what he tells you?
Even if you’re just trying to stop the Democrats, how good is Trump at doing that? During his tenure as de facto leader of the Republican Party, he recorded one victory (2016), followed by three losses (2018, 2020, 2022). Much of the public, not just the far left but also many swing voters (and even some Republicans), view him extremely negatively—certainly not a good trait in a political candidate.
Assuming the Democrats do convince Biden to step down, they convince Harris to step down, and the Democratic National Convention elects a successful Purple State Democratic governor or senator. How confident are you that Trump will win? Wouldn’t there be some Republican candidate who could more effectively capitalize on Biden’s historically disastrous debate performances?
[3.] Now let’s turn to the media. The job of the media should be to inform the public about what is actually happening in government. Of course, so should the president’s cognitive abilities.
Is the media doing a good job of honestly informing the public about this? Did the coverage do a good job of reporting on the issues while it was still relevant to the Democratic primary (or at least accurately predicting them, if you think things have worsened dramatically for Biden over the past few months)?
Either the media (and not just the handful of outlets that have worked tirelessly to cover this issue, but the media as a whole) learned of Biden’s decline on debate night and the rest of us knew it, or they knew it all along. If they found out that night, what does that tell you about them? If they knew all along, what does that tell you? Is any answer good?
[4.] Finally, let’s talk about the criminal justice system. Trump was convicted of a felony. He is being indicted on other felonies.
However, his standing in the polls has not materially changed. Some might blame this in part on his radical partisans — but Trump still has considerable support among independents, too. Even as polls concluded he lost some support among independents, they suggested the losses were relatively small and that many independents did not believe the convictions resulted from a “fair and impartial process.” (For example, according to Politico, “ [independents said] They think the verdict [in the New York criminal case] is the result of a fair and impartial process (46%), while others disagree (27%) or say they don’t know (24%).
Again, if someone had asked you twenty years ago, “What would be the consequences for a presidential candidate if he was convicted of a felony and tried for other felonies during his campaign?” I hope your answer would be Like this: The answer is probably “catastrophic.” Either that or there’s a huge loss of trust in the justice system in general. Or they conclude that in these cases the criminal justice system is used as a political weapon rather than a real tool to protect the public from criminals. Either answer is bad.
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So what’s the problem? One answer is bad guys. But there are always bad guys.
Our constitutional system, not just the written constitution but the structures we have developed over centuries, are designed to deal with bad actors. Ambition should offset ambition. Broad-based state institutions should check the excesses of narrow factions. The egos of individual candidates are bound to be constrained by these institutions—even if those institutions themselves are composed of flawed and egotistical individuals.
One way to think about this is to imagine it happened in a foreign country. Imagine, unexpectedly, we Americans started paying attention to campaigns in other countries. That campaign pitted an 81-year-old incumbent who was clearly in cognitive decline against a 78-year-old candidate who had been convicted of a crime and was on trial for other crimes. , and at least it’s doing pretty well. Do we think foreign countries have healthy political systems?
I can’t tell you what causes these problems. Is the shift to primaries part of the reason? (Was the old smoke-filled room system better?) Is ideological homogeneity among many media outlets part of the reason? Is the growth of social media part of the reason? Could it be something else? Even if we could diagnose the problem, are there any realistic solutions?
I just think there’s more going on here than just two particularly weak candidates. In order to find a path forward, we have to figure out some solutions that go beyond these candidates and this election cycle.
