With mortgage rates and home prices higher, more homeowners are staying put, According to a report by Redfin.
The number of homeowners looking to move to other metro areas began to decline in the fall of 2023, falling to 23.9% in November 2023.
Although some of them are also related to telecommute increasingly unpopular with employers, Homeowner turnover rates have been steadily declining Since the 1980s, older Americans have decided to age in their current homes.
Still, Redfern said the rate of homeowners considering moving is still higher than pre-pandemic levels, with Americans looking for bargains.
Where are homebuyers moving?
Redfin says the most popular expat destinations have lower prices than where most buyers are relocating. red fin measures Popularity, measured by net inflows, or more Redfin.com users looking to move to an area than are leaving it.
Spokane, Washington, makes the list for the first time, likely due to its affordability and proximity to Seattle. Other areas on the list are also known for being relatively affordable and attractive to homebuyers moving from expensive metropolitan areas.
| rank | MRT | Net inflow in November 2023 | Net inflow in November 2022 | Top origin | Top Out-of-State Origins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | sacramento california | 5,100 people | 7,000 | San Francisco, California | New York City, New York |
| 2 | Las Vegas, Nevada | 3,800 | 6,400 | Los Angeles, California | Los Angeles, California |
| 3 | North Port-Sarasota, Florida | 3,700 | 3,700 | New York City, New York | New York City, New York |
| 4 | cape coral florida | 3,700 | 4,000 | Miami, Florida | Chicago, Illinois |
| 5 | Salisbury, MD | 3,600 | 2,000 | Washington DC | Washington DC |
| 6 | Myrtle Beach, South Carolina | 3,600 | 2,800 | Washington DC | Washington DC |
| 7 | Orlando, Florida | 3,500 people | 3,300 | New York City, New York | New York City, New York |
| 8 | Portland, Maine | 3,400 | 2,800 | Boston, Massachusetts | Boston, Massachusetts |
| 9 | Nashville, Tennessee | 3,000 | 2,800 | Los Angeles, California | Los Angeles, California |
| 10 | Spokane, Washington | 2,500 people | 2,300 | Seattle, Washington | Los Angeles, California |
Where Home Buyers Leave
Redfern found that more homebuyers left Los Angeles than any other metro area, beating out the Bay Area, which lost its No. 1 spot for the first time in two years. The Bay Area ranks second and New York ranks third.
Redfern found that coastal areas and larger cities were often the first choice for buyers to leave because they were too expensive.
| rank | MRT | Net outflows in November 2023 | Net outflows in November 2022 | Popular destinations | Best out-of-state destinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles, California | 26,100 | 30,300 | Las Vegas, Nevada | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| 2 | San Francisco, California | 25,400 | 32,000 | sacramento california | Seattle, Washington |
| 3 | New York City, New York | 24,900 | 20,700 | Miami, Florida | Miami, Florida |
| 4 | Washington DC | 13,300 | 16,100 | Salisbury, MD | Salisbury, MD |
| 5 | Seattle, Washington | 11,900 | 1,300 | Spokane, Washington | Phoenix, Arizona |
| 6 | Chicago, Illinois | 7,600 | 7,100 | cape coral florida | cape coral florida |
| 7 | Boston, Massachusetts | 5,000 | 6,100 | Portland, Maine | Portland, Maine |
| 8 | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | 3,000 | 1,300 | Salisbury, MD | Salisbury, MD |
| 9 | Detroit, MI | 2,100 | 3,400 | Washington DC | Washington DC |
| 10 | Denver, Colorado | 2,000 | 3,200 | Chicago, Illinois | Chicago, Illinois |
Why don’t homeowners do this? real move
Overall, there are several reasons, homeowners are no longer looking to move. One of the reasons is have Remote working less flexibleas more employers want employees to return to the office.
another reason possible and generally Home sales dropas record mortgage rates and prices keep many potential homebuyers on the sidelines. Many homeowners who originally wanted to sell decide to stay in their current homes because their mortgage rates are low. simply also OK give up.
this The lockdown effect resulted in a 57% reduction in home sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 and resulted in 1.33 million homes unsold between the second quarter of 2022 and the end of 2023according to a Report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Economists Jack Lieberson and Jesse Rothstein established Liquidity declined for homeowners with mortgages in 2022 and 2023, but not for homeowners without mortgages or renters. In other words, those with mortgages are more likely to stay.
although increased over the past few years Overall mobility appears to have declined over the past few decades due to the number of people looking to move due to remote working due to the pandemic. according to an economist, this Moving rates have been declining steadily, falling below 10% in 2018, compared with 20% in the mid-1980s.
At the same time, a poll New York Fed survey finds few U.S. homeowners Planning About half of respondents said they were less than 10% likely to move within the next three years.
What this means for real estate investors
The homeowner stayed put longer than they are forward, stay An average of 11.9 years, compared with 6.5 years in the early 2000s, according to redfern. As evictions decline, some towns and states is an even number pay people move there.
All of this could lead to housing shortages. The housing shortage is At least 3.8 million units,it is could get worse.
However, the decline in immigration may not last forever. When the Fed cuts interest rates, mortgage rates may fall and homeowners may be enticed to put their homes on the market. If supply can keep up with demand, this could spur an increase in relocations. But if the squeeze on housing supply persists, it may take some time for home prices to fall before buyers decide it’s worth moving, creating opportunities for real estate investors.
To learn more about Redfin’s approach, click here.
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