For months, he single-handedly blocked a $52 billion European aid package for Ukraine, then meekly backed down. He refused to accept Sweden as a new member of NATO for more than a year, and finally agreed unconditionally under pressure from major powers.
The same pattern played out again on Tuesday, when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made a surprise visit to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, following a path that has been followed frequently by other European leaders for more than two years. , but Mr Orban has previously avoided this.
Hungarian officials interpreted the unannounced visit as an effort to promote “peace” – Hungary’s euphemism for a solution based on Ukraine’s surrender to Russian demands. Many observers see this as more of an attempt by Mr Orban to end his isolation on the European stage over Ukraine.
Zeold, a former Hungarian diplomat in Budapest and a foreign policy expert, said the visit “comes as a complete surprise to me and many others” given that Orban has long taken such a hostile stance toward Ukraine. “The most logical explanation,” Zeold said, “is that he wanted to establish some credibility within the EU and not just be a unilateral pro-Russian actor.”
Hungary took over the EU’s rotating presidency this week, pledging to “make Europe great again”. But the presidency is very much a civilian position, and Mr Orban’s oft-repeated vow to “take over Brussels” is actually based on a calculation that last month’s European Parliament elections would make Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party A powerful new focus.
However, that hope has so far been hampered by Mr Orban’s reputation as the European bloc’s most pro-Kremlin leader – a position only a few fringe figures want to be associated with.
Peter Kreko, director of the Budapest-based Political Capital Research Group, a frequent critic of Hungary’s leader, described Orban’s trip to Kyiv as “a smart, unexpected surprise that could boost his proximity to the EU mainstream.” Chance”. ” and formed an alliance with conservatives such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni. While Ms. Meloni agrees with Mr. Orban’s views on severely restricting immigration and protecting the country’s sovereignty, she is weary of Mr. Orban’s pro-Kremlin stance on Ukraine.
“He knew that visiting Zelensky was code for ‘member of the club,’ and he wanted to send a strong message to EU leaders: Even if he played the role of an outsider many times, he was a member of the club,” Kreko said.
When Hungary last week announced the formation of a new right-wing coalition called “European Patriots” in the European Parliament, Mr Orban declared it was for a “new era” of “peace, security and development” rather than “war, migration” start.
But the new legislative coalition led by Hungary, which Orban predicts will “soon become the most powerful right-wing political grouping in Europe”, has attracted only two small populist parties from Austria and the Czech Republic. A small right-wing Portuguese party has since said it would join. Another possible member is Italy’s far-right Matteo Salvini, an outspoken supporter of Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, who Din is trying to overcome a poor performance in June’s European elections.
So far, Europe’s most powerful nationalist parties have stayed away, reducing Orban’s chances of becoming a central figure in the surging populist right.
Poland’s former ruling Law and Justice party, which is far larger economically, militarily and demographically than Hungary, shares Orban’s hostility to immigrants and the Brussels bureaucracy. But it refused to join the new alliance, mainly because of Hungary’s position on the war in Ukraine.
Italy’s Ms Meloni has also shown no interest in joining forces with Hungary in the European Parliament, instead sticking to her own position in parliament.
By visiting Ukraine, Mr. Orban is “trying to break out of the EU’s political no-man’s land, and a more open approach to Kyiv will be key in this regard,” said Mr. Orban, an academician of the Polish Academy of Sciences who has written extensively about Russia’s influence on Hungary.
Speaking in Kiev on Tuesday, Orban reiterated his call for “peace” but stopped short of suggesting that achieving that goal depended on Ukraine giving up. Hungarian news agency MTI said Orban called for “a time-limited ceasefire, which provides an opportunity to speed up peace talks.”
Ukrainian news outlet Uniian quoted Orban as saying: “Peace is an important issue. The war you are now in has a very strong impact on Europe’s security.” He did not publicly criticize Zelens over the treatment of Ukraine’s Hungarian minority. Key, which has previously been a major point of contention frequently raised by Orban, thanked Zelensky for listening to his views on a possible ceasefire.
Professor Zgut-Przbyrska said that Orban’s trip “does not mean that the Hungarian government will undergo a 180-degree political change.” Rather, it is consistent with what the prime minister himself calls Hungary’s “peacock dance”: a policy of fluttering feathers in different directions depending on the situation.
“Orban has been performing this ‘peacock’ dance for a decade,” she said. “Hungary’s energy dependence on Russia will be greater than ever.”
Russia, perhaps worried that it might lose the EU’s most reliable friend, downplayed the importance of Orban’s trip. The TASS news agency quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying that Orban’s arrival in Kiev does not reflect a change in Hungary’s position, but only reflects Hungary’s responsibilities after assuming the EU’s rotating presidency. “We don’t expect anything,” Mr Peskov said.
Former diplomat Zeold said it was an early sign that Orban wanted to shed his bad image as a Kremlin puppet, and last month he gave a warm welcome to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Budapest. Stoltenberg), who is a staunch supporter of NATO.
Orban assured Stoltenberg that he would not veto NATO support for Ukraine at this month’s NATO leaders’ summit in Washington. He remains adamant that Hungary will not contribute funds or military personnel to any joint aid effort. But a pledge not to play a spoiler role at the summit calmed concerns that Hungary could derail proposals for a new system to provide more predictable long-term security assistance and military training to Ukraine.
Orban’s positioning of himself as a champion of European “peace” against what he derided as Europe’s “warmongers” has served him well in domestic politics. His Fidesz party won a landslide victory in the 2022 elections, its fourth consecutive victory, after the party smeared the main opposition leader as a reckless leader bent on sending Hungarians to fight Russia in Ukraine. It was a lie, but one repeated loudly by the news media controlled by Orban’s party helped destroy the opposition.
In the run-up to last month’s European Parliament elections, Fidesz warned that European support for Ukraine could trigger World War III and opposed Brussels’ proposals for mandatory military conscription across Europe. No such proposals exist, but the fear stoked by Fidesz helped the party win the European legislative vote in Hungary, although a strong showing by upstart conservative rivals reduced the size of Mr Orban’s victory.
EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said conscription “is a national decision” and not something Brussels can impose.
However, domestic political expediency limits Mr Orban’s appeal beyond Hungary’s borders. His most vocal supporters abroad are right-wing Americans such as Donald J. Trump. In Europe, only Slovakia strongly opposed support for Ukraine.
Mr Zeold said this was a problem for Mr Orban, whose ambitions extend far beyond Hungary’s population of less than 10 million.
“The domestic political arena in Hungary is too small for Orban,” Mr. Zeold said. “He wants to play on a bigger playing field. That’s the European Union.”
Marc Santora contributed reporting.
