The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued another dire warning Thursday about the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, predicting that 17 to 25 tropical cyclones could occur this year, the most it has ever forecast for an Atlantic hurricane in May.
NOAA’s forecast joins more than a dozen recent forecasts by experts from universities, private companies and other government agencies predicting there could be 14 or more named storms this season; many have called for far more than 20 .
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said at a news conference Thursday morning that the agency’s forecasters believe eight to 13 of the designated storms could become hurricanes, meaning they have winds of at least 74 mph. These could include four to seven major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) with winds of at least 111 mph
According to NOAA, there are 85 The probability of higher than normal season is 10%, and the probability of close to normal season is 10%, among which There is a 5% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season averages 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
While it only takes one storm to devastate a community during a below-average season, with conditions conducive to nearly twice the average number of storms, North America is more likely to experience a tropical storm, or worse, a Major hurricane.
There are 21 entries in this year’s official storm name list, ranging from Alberto to William. If the list is exhausted, the National Weather Service moves to another list, something it has done only twice in its history.
NOAA typically releases its forecast in May, followed by updated forecasts in August. Before Thursday, NOAA’s most important May forecast was 2010, when 14 to 23 named storms were forecast; that year, 19 eventually made up before the end of the season. In 2020, the May forecast was for 13 to 19 named storms, but the August update forecast was higher, for 19 to 25 named storms. That season ended up with 30 named storms.
This year’s hurricane outlook is particularly grim due to the unprecedented expected conditions.
As forecasters look ahead to the official start of the season on June 1, they see a combination of conditions not seen in records dating back to the mid-1800s: record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the potential development of a La Niña weather pattern.
Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miami who specializes in hurricane formation, said there are no previous examples of this type of situation, and forecasters trying to predict future seasons can only extrapolate from previous anomalies.
Experts are concerned about rising ocean temperatures.
“I think all systems are going to have a hyperactive season,” said Phil Klotzbach, a seasonal hurricane forecast expert at Colorado State University.
Just before hurricane season begins, areas of the Atlantic critical for hurricane formation are already unusually warm. Benjamin Kottman, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami, earlier described the situation as “unprecedented,” “shocking” and an “out of bounds anomaly.”
These temperatures have gradually increased over the past century. But last year, ocean waters in the hurricane-prone areas of the Atlantic warmed faster and with an intensity that alarmed climate scientists. The region from West Africa to Central America is hotter this year than before the start of last year’s hurricane season, which produced 20 named storms.
Current temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are concerning because they mean the ocean is poised to provide additional fuel for any storms that form. Even with the sudden cooling of the surface, temperatures below the surface are significantly above average and are expected to rapidly reheat surface temperatures.
These warm temperatures can provide energy for storm formation and help sustain storms. Sometimes, a storm can gain strength faster than normal, jumping to hurricane category in less than a day if no other atmospheric conditions impede its development.
Combined with a rapidly fading El Niño weather pattern in early May, the temperatures have forecast experts increasingly confident that this hurricane season will see an unusually high number of storms.
The departing El Niño and possible La Niña are increasing confidence in the forecast.
El Niño is caused by changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and affects global weather patterns. When it is strong, it often prevents the storm from developing and growing. Last year, warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic weakened the effects of El Niño. If El Niño subsides, as forecasters expect, it won’t have much of an impact on the season this time around.
Forecasters who specialize in the ebb and flow of El Niño, including Michelle L’Heureux of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, are very confident that not only will El Niño recede, but that there is a very good chance (77 percent) that La Niña will. Peak of hurricane season.
The system may throw a curveball, she said, but at this point in the spring, things are going the way forecasters expect. La Niña weather patterns already have them predicting an above-average year. The potential for La Niña, combined with record sea surface temperatures this hurricane season, is expected to create a favorable environment for storms to form and intensify this year.
