British voters went to the polls on Thursday feeling frustrated, many of them frustrated with the Conservative government but skeptical that any replacement could solve the problems plaguing the country.
Analysts say their skepticism is justified. Even if Labor wins an outright majority in parliament, as polls suggest, it will face a host of challenges, from a stagnant economy to the erosion of the NHS, without many tools to address them.
Robert Ford, professor of politics at the University of Manchester, said Labor leader Keir Starmer would inherit a “legacy of ashes”. Voters who overwhelmingly elected the Conservatives less than five years ago are unlikely to give Mr Starmer much leeway to turn things around.
“The message couldn’t be clearer: You have to deliver change – or you’re screwed,” Mr Ford said. “People won’t be patient.”
The election is shaping up to be a political watershed in the country. This may well represent a repudiation of the Conservative Party after 14 years in power, and the rise of Labour.
This dizzying reversal of political fortunes illustrates the turmoil that has gripped Britain since the 2016 vote to leave the European Union. Stable and extreme.
As Labor looms on the verge of taking power, it faces difficult trade-offs that reflect the legacy of those years: a country depleted, exhausted and desperate for change.
rebuild the economy
Labour’s core pitch is that it can grow the economy and generate enough extra revenue through taxation to avoid deep cuts to public services, higher taxes or increased borrowing. But its means to achieve this are limited, especially after its ambitious multi-billion pound plan to transform the UK into a “green economy” suffered earlier this year due to the government’s weak financial position.
Another option is to relax trade restrictions with the EU that have hampered British exporters since Brexit. Yet Mr Starmer has ruled out rejoining the EU’s vast single economic market because that would mean allowing Europeans to live and work freely in the UK or its customs union, which would mean accepting some of the EU’s rules on tariffs and tariffs.
While analysts say it should be possible for a Labor government to strike more limited deals, such as a new plant and animal trade deal that would help British food exporters, these would provide only a small boost to the economy.
This brings to the forefront another of Labour’s main aims: overhauling Britain’s planning system to build more homes and speed up public works projects. Labor is expected to review which rural areas remain off-limits to developers and restore targets for residential construction in urban areas.
Economists say rewriting planning rules could spark a building boom but would unsettle voters who want to protect green spaces.
Budget pressures will also complicate Labour’s efforts to repair the NHS, where the government has failed to shorten months-long waiting times. Labor has pledged to increase the number of appointments by 40,000 per week, claiming it can achieve this by convincing NHS staff to take more appointments during off-hours.
Labor said it would also hire 8,500 health workers to treat patients with mental health problems and double the number of CT scanners and MRI machines in hospitals. It will fund the project by closing a loophole for those with non-domiciled status in the UK, allowing them to avoid paying some tax.
But its immediate challenge is resolving a long-running pay dispute with junior doctors. Doctors have gone on strike multiple times after the government rejected their demand for a 35% pay rise, leading to a series of surgeries being canceled and waiting times extended.
solve immigration problem
Tackling immigration is another challenge for Labour, not least because of labor shortages in the NHS and across the economy. Controlling Britain’s borders was a big theme in the Brexit referendum, but net legal migration (the number of people arriving minus the number of people leaving) has roughly tripled since then, to almost 750,000 in 2022, and then slightly fall back.
Labor will benefit from reforms introduced by the Conservative government to limit the rights of students to bring relatives to the UK, as well as a reduction in the number of refugees from Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan. All in all, net migration is now expected to fall.
But against this backdrop, Labor must work hard to deliver on its promise to train more Britons to fill jobs and stop employers looking abroad for workers.
It will be more difficult to curb the flow of asylum seekers who land on British coastlines in small boats. Mr Starmer has vowed to scrap a costly policy under which some asylum seekers are put on one-way flights to Rwanda. Instead, Labor will work to crack down on people-smuggling gangs while strengthening cooperation with authorities across the continent.
Yet Britain had given France tens of millions of pounds to help them stop the boats, with only partial success. It’s unclear how much room there is for better cooperation between the two sides as far-right anti-immigration parties make significant gains in France’s ongoing elections.
Domestically, the UK faces a backlog of asylum claims, with accommodation costs for those awaiting decisions – many of them staying in hotels – costing around £8 million ($10.2 million) a day. Labor has pledged to hire 1,000 new social workers to help weed out unsuccessful applicants. But many come from countries that do not have a deal with the UK to accept failed asylum seekers.
Facing uncertain allies
Any British leader will face an increasingly dark political landscape in the United States. Questions about President Joe Biden’s viability as a candidate in the upcoming election have raised the possibility that his Republican rival, Donald J. Trump, will regain the presidency.
Labor’s top foreign policy official, David Lammy, has sought to cultivate talent in Trump’s orbit, including Ohio Republican Sen. J.D. Vance. But Mr Lamy’s calling card in the United States is his close relationship with former President Obama. Both men graduated from Harvard Law School, and Mr. Lamy campaigned for Mr. Obama during his first presidential campaign.
Mr Starmer’s connection to America is not that deep. While he has no history of criticizing Trump, there is little sign that the 61-year-old former chief prosecutor will develop a strong relationship with the 78-year-old man who is the defendant in multiple criminal cases.
On Wednesday, however, Starmer won support from another unexpected source: Rupert Murdoch. His influential London tabloid, The Sun, backed Labor in an election for the first time since 2005.
“It’s time for a new manager,” The Sun wrote on its front page as the European football championship drew to a close, in which England’s national team struggled to advance to the quarter-finals. in contention.
“Sir Keir has won the right to power by pulling his party back to the center of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair came to No. 10,” the newspaper said.
