On February 1, 2024, Keir Starmer, leader of the British opposition Labor Party, delivered a speech at a business conference in London.
Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP
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Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP
LONDON – Britain’s Labor Party is expected to win a strong majority in Thursday’s parliamentary election amid a sluggish economy, growing distrust of institutions and a fractured social fabric, an exit poll showed.
Opinion polls published shortly after the vote showed center-left Labor leader Keir Starmer would become the country’s next prime minister.
Weary voters appear to have handed Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s centre-right Conservatives a historic defeat, plunging them into chaos since taking power in 2010.
“Things have been going really well for the last 14 years,” said London voter James Erskine, who was optimistic about change hours before polls closed. “I just think this has the potential to make a huge difference, and that’s what I’m hoping for.”
While the results appear to go against recent right-wing electoral trends across Europe, including in France and Italy, there are many of the same populist undercurrents in Britain. Reform leader Nigel Farage has roiled the campaign with his party’s anti-immigration “take back our country” sentiment and eroded support for the Conservatives, whose prospects are bleak.
According to exit polls, Labor is expected to win about 410 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, with the Conservatives winning 131 seats. That would be the Conservatives’ smallest number of seats in their nearly two-century history and would plunge the party into chaos.
Some smaller parties appear to be doing well, including the centrist Liberal Democrats and Farage’s Reform Party, a sign of unstable public sentiment and anger at the system.
The poll, conducted by polling agency Ipsos, asked people at dozens of polling stations to fill out a replica ballot showing how they voted. It often provides a reliable but inaccurate prediction of the final outcome.
Full results will be available in the next few hours.
Hundreds of communities are locked in a tight race, with traditional party loyalties taking second place to more pressing concerns about the economy, crumbling infrastructure and the national health service.
In Henley-on-Thames, about 40 miles west of London, voters like retired Patricia Mulcahy sense the country is looking for something different. Communities that normally vote Conservative may change their stance this time around.
“The younger generation is more interested in change,” Mulcahy said. “So, I think whatever happens in Henry, in this country, there’s going to be a huge shift. But whoever comes in, they’ve got a tough job ahead of them. It’s not going to be easy.
Britain has endured a series of turbulent years – some of the Conservative Party’s own making, some not – that have left many voters pessimistic about the country’s future. Britain’s exit from the European Union, the ensuing COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hit the economy hard, while lockdown-breaking parties hosted by then-prime minister Boris Johnson and his staff sparked widespread outrage .
Johnson’s successor, Liz Truss, further rocked the economy with a series of deep tax cuts, but was only in office for 49 days. Rising poverty and cuts to state services have fueled complaints of a “broken Britain”.
Earlier in the day, the weather had been sunny across much of the country, which was good weather for people heading to the polls.
In the first hour after voting opened, Sunak set out from his home to cast his vote at Kirby Sigston Village Hall in his Richmond constituency in northern England. He arrived with his wife Akshata Murty and walked hand in hand into the village hall, surrounded by rolling fields.
Labor has held a steady and significant lead in the polls for months, but its leaders have warned in recent days against taking the election results for granted, fearing their supporters will stay home.
“Change. Today you can vote for it,” leader Starmer wrote on the X social media platform on Thursday.
Hours after posting the news, Starmer walked hand in hand with his wife Victoria as they walked into a polling station in Kentish Town, London, to cast their votes. He left through the back door, hiding from the sight of the gathered residents and reporters.
Labor has yet to deliver on its promises to grow the sluggish economy, invest in infrastructure and make the UK a “clean energy superpower”.
But there haven’t been any real problems with his campaign either. The party has won the support of much of the business community and traditional conservative newspapers, including Rupert Murdoch’s The Sun tabloid, which praised Starmer for “bringing his party back to Britain” center of politics”.
The Conservatives conceded that Labor appeared to be heading for victory.
“If the polls are to be believed, the country could wake up tomorrow to a Labor majority ready to wield their unchecked power,” Sunak said in a message to voters on Wednesday. He urged voters to back the Conservatives and Limit the power of the Labor Party.
Former Labor candidate Douglas Beattie, author of How Labor Won (and Why It Lost), said Starmer’s “quiet stability may be in line with the current mood of the country.”
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party is plagued by gaffes. The campaign got off to a rocky start, with Sunak being drenched in heavy rain as he made the announcement outside No. 10 Downing Street.
Several Conservative figures close to Sunak are under investigation for allegedly using inside information to place bets on the election date before it was announced.
Sunak has struggled to shake off the taint of political chaos and mismanagement surrounding the Conservative Party.
But for many voters, the lack of trust applies not just to the governing party but to politicians as a whole.
“As a worker, I don’t know who is right for me,” said Michelle Bird, a port worker in Southampton on England’s south coast who is undecided whether to vote Labor or Conservative. “I don’t know if this is the devil you know or the devil you don’t know.”
