Liberal pollster Nate Silver puts Joe Biden’s chances of regaining the presidency as low as 28% after a poor performance in last month’s debate.
Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, cemented himself as America’s leading pollster by correctly predicting 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election and all 50 states in the 2012 presidential election. Investigate the reputation of one of the agencies.
He explained:
If Biden Do After the exit, the model should work fine: we’ll wait about two weeks until there are enough polls to measure his successor’s performance, and then restart it. (While I’m sure it will get a lot of clicks, I think it would be highly irresponsible to release a prediction about the prospects of an alternative candidate before then.
In some ways, though, I’m less concerned about our model’s assumptions about Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and more concerned about whether it handles Biden appropriately.
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Although our predicted Biden chance of victory has dropped significantly — from 35% before the debate to 28% now — it may still be too optimistic. He may not be able to deliver the performance needed to fully realize his comeback chances.
However, Silver’s predictions weren’t always correct. As early as 2016, he gave Hillary Clinton a 72% chance of winning the presidential election and predicted that Donald Trump would win only 236 electoral votes.
Needless to say, his views are quite outrageous.
