Author: Gabriel Stargardt
PARIS (Reuters) – France voted on Sunday in a parliamentary runoff that will reconfigure the political landscape, with polls predicting the far-right National Rally (RN) will win the most votes but may not secure a majority.
Such an outcome could plunge the country into a chaotic hung parliament just weeks before the Paris Olympics, severely undermining President Emmanuel Macron’s authority. Likewise, if the nationalist, Eurosceptic RN does win a majority, a pro-business, pro-European president may find himself forced into a difficult cohabitation.
Marine Le Pen’s RN secured a historic victory in the first round of voting on Sunday, raising fears of France’s first far-right government since World War II.
But Le Pen’s hopes of the RN winning an outright majority in the 577-seat National Assembly have been dashed after centrist and left-wing parties joined forces over the past week to build anti-RN roadblocks.
Opinion polls suggest RN will be the dominant force in legislation but falls short of the 289-seat majority that Le Pen and her 28-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella believe would enable them to seize the premiership position and moved France sharply to the right.
Voting will open at 8am (0600 GMT), end at 6pm in towns and small cities, and end at 8pm (1800GMT) in large cities, according to part of a sample of polling stations Statistics, preliminary forecasts are expected when voting closes.
Much will depend on whether voters respond to calls from the main anti-RN coalition to prevent the far right from taking power, or support far-right contenders.
Raphael Glucksmann, a member of the European Parliament who led France’s left-wing party in last month’s European Parliament election, said he believed Sunday’s runoff was simply about “whether the Le Pen family takes over.” This country’s simple referendum.
“France is on the edge of a cliff and we don’t know if we will jump,” he told France Internationale last week.
Long ostracized by many because of its history of racism and anti-Semitism, the RN has increased her support amid voter anger at Macron, tight family budgets and immigration concerns.
“The French people are really hungry for change,” Le Pen told TF1 TV on Wednesday, adding that she was “very confident” of winning a parliamentary majority.
Even if the RN fails to meet its target, it looks set to more than double the 89 seats it won in the 2022 legislative vote and become the dominant player in an unruly hung parliament that will make France difficult to govern.
Such an outcome would risk policy paralysis before Macron’s presidential term ends in 2027, when Le Pen is expected to run for France’s top job for a fourth time.
What’s next for Macron?
Macron shocked the country and angered many of his political allies and supporters by calling a snap election after being humiliated by Republicans in last month’s European Parliament vote, hoping to catch his opponents off guard in the legislative election.
Whatever the final outcome, his political agenda appears dead now, with three years remaining in his presidential term.
Bardera said the Republican Party would refuse to form a government if it failed to win a majority, but Le Pen said it might try to form a government if it failed to win a majority.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who looks likely to lose his job in a post-election reshuffle, dismissed suggestions that Macron’s centrists might seek to form a cross-party government in the event of a hung parliament. Instead, he wants moderates to pass legislation on a case-by-case basis.
A majority for registered nurses would force Macron into an awkward cohabitation with Bardella as prime minister, raising thorny constitutional disputes and questions on the European and global stages about who truly speaks for France.
If the RN is stripped of its majority and refuses to form a government, modern France will find itself in uncharted territory. Building alliances will be difficult for any one group given the policy differences between them.
French asset prices rose on expectations that the Republicans would not win a majority, with bank shares rising and the risk premium for investors holding French debt narrowing. Economists question whether huge spending plans for registered nurses are fully funded.
Given France’s powerful role in the bloc, an RN-led government would raise major questions about the direction of the bloc, although EU law will almost certainly limit its plans to crack down on immigration.
For many in France’s immigrant and minority communities, the rise of registered nurses has sent a clear but unwelcome message.
“They hate Muslims, they hate Islam,” Selma Bouziane, a 20-year-old film student, said at a market in Goussainville, a town near Paris. “They see Islam as the scapegoat for all the problems in France. So it’s definitely negative for the Muslim community.”
The registered nurse pledged to reduce immigration, relax legislation to deport illegal immigrants and tighten rules around family reunification. Le Pen said she was not anti-Islam, but immigration was out of control and too many people were taking advantage of France’s welfare system and broken public services.
