A new multi-university research project found that the debate did not change voter preferences and that Biden actually did better than Trump at retaining supporters after the debate.
A new report from a multi-university project called CHIP50 (including Northeastern University, Harvard University, Rutgers University and the University of Rochester) concluded that the first presidential debate had no impact on voter preferences.
The report found:
The main pattern we see in the data is the stability of voter preferences. Overall, 94% of those who chose Biden and 86% of those who chose Trump in our May survey still preferred the same candidate after the debate. The rate of change from Biden to Trump and vice versa is small—less than 3% in either direction. We observed more Movement between those supporting Biden or Trump and the “other” category. In an earlier wave of debates, about 4% of Biden supporters and 6% of Trump supporters switched to “other” after the debate. At the same time, 6% of “others” turned to Biden, and another 6% turned to Trump.
The net effect of this attrition remains small: out of the total sample of 1,262 repeat respondents, there was a net shift of 36 voters to Biden and a net shift of 27 voters to Trump. Of course, the presidential debates weren’t the only major event last month that could have changed respondents’ views. To understand the role of debates, we also examined changes in candidate preferences from the May survey wave to the The same respondents reported in June, but before the presidential debate began. These shifts are again small, with 87% of Biden supporters and 85% of Trump supporters retaining the same candidate preference, and less than 2% switching in either direction between the two candidates.
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The evidence provided by CHIP50 does not corroborate the notion that the presidential race shifted away from Biden immediately after the recent debates. We also suggest that media coverage of presidential campaigns should not interpret small apparent changes in voter preferences as reflecting real changes in campaign conditions (where “small” should be interpreted roughly as less than twice the margin of error in polls). For pollsters using panels (i.e., the same respondents at multiple points in time), we also recommend reporting the rate at which respondents switch between different possible responses.
The Biden crisis is a baseless media construct
Democrats calling for Biden to step down are taking advantage of a crisis created by the media. There are no statistics to support the notion that voters have moved away from Biden or that Democrats urgently need to replace their nominee. The Biden debate crisis seems to have been constructed by panicked Democratic elites using the media. President Biden has done a better job than Donald Trump at retaining supporters.
The stupidest thing the Democrats can do is remove the candidate that voters want.
There are growing signs that the Democrats are not in trouble, but that the polls and the media are wrong about this election.
If this trend continues, don’t be surprised if Biden and the Democrats pull off another “surprise” victory in November.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of Society of Professional Journalists and American Political Science Association
