Taiwan faces pressure to strengthen defenses during Trump-Harris campaign

Security and policy analysts say Taiwan is facing growing pressure to bolster its defense capabilities and deterrence against China in the face of uncertainty about the U.S. election scheduled for November.

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung told reporters last month that the self-ruled island must rely on its own defense and may continue to spend and modernize its military in the face of threats from China, which considers Taiwan its own island.

The minister’s comments came in response to presidential candidate Donald Trump’s suggestion that Taipei should pay Washington for military protection. Trump said the country “gave us nothing” and took “100 percent of our chip business.”

Experts said Trump’s comments underscored the unpredictability Taiwan faces, especially after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and backed Vice President Kamala Harris, who has relatively little foreign policy experience.

Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at International Christian University, said that while Biden has “a more consistent policy toward Taiwan,” Trump has proven to be “erratic and unpredictable” since the start of his first term. .

This was largely due to strategic differences between the two leaders. Nagy added that while Biden has repeatedly said the United States will defend Taiwan, Trump has chosen “strategic ambiguity.”

Days after taking office, Trump became the first U.S. president in decades to communicate directly with the president of Taiwan.

Soon after, he suggested that the United States might change its long-standing position that Taiwan is part of “one China.” However, he reportedly changed this position during a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2016.

Regardless, Trump’s tough stance on China has led many Taiwanese to believe he will strongly support Taiwan, said Weng Lu-zhong, a political science professor at Sam Houston State University.

Similar to 2016, this candidate is pursuing a tough policy toward China and has proposed significantly intensifying the trade war with China.

Mohammad Faizal, a researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said that the tougher containment stance against China adopted by Trump 2.0 will be welcomed by Taiwan’s ruling party and other Indo-Pacific partners.

However, he added that they were also concerned that Trump’s “short-sighted and transactional approach” to foreign and defense relations – exemplified by his remarks about Taiwan paying U.S. defense costs – could lead them back to his geopolitical Darts on.

Meanwhile, while experts interviewed by CNBC agreed that a second Trump administration is likely to be filled with China hawks who regard defending Taiwan as a top priority, the extent to which they will be able to guide policy remains unclear.

“I think anyone who says they’re sure where they are [the administration] “They’ve lost their minds… I think the level of unpredictability is going to be greater than it’s ever been,” said Richard Heydarian, a policy adviser and senior lecturer in international affairs at the University of the Philippines.

On the other side of the ticket is Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, after Biden bowed to pressure to drop out of the race over concerns about his age.

Analysts say she is expected to be somewhat aligned with Biden’s agenda and foreign policy.

“I understand [Harris] “This is a continuation of broader foreign policy trends over the past few decades,” Fordham Global Forward founder Tina Fordham told CNBC’s “Global Exchange” last month.

Dewardric McNeal, managing director and senior policy analyst at Longview Global, said it’s unclear how Harris sees herself different from Biden and that Beijing will be watching her closely if she is to win. First 100 days.

As Vice President, Harris expressed support for Taiwan and met with Taiwan’s new leader Lai Ching-te in 2022.

“While I expect there will be some continuity [with Biden] In her China policy, it is important to recognize the powerful influence of personality on policy formulation, formulation and implementation,” McNeil said.

“Vice President Harris is not Joe Biden, and she will govern differently,” he added.

With both candidates bringing a level of uncertainty to Taiwan, policy experts say the island nation is under greater pressure to step up efforts to build its own deterrent.

Ava Shen, who covers foreign policy and domestic politics for Taiwan and China at the Eurasia Group, said the efforts have built momentum since Jimmy Lai’s election in January, and the U.S. election will only add more urgency.

Lai, a member of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party and considered a separatist by Beijing, has continued his predecessor’s efforts to build ties with Washington amid increasing military and political pressure from China.

His inaugural address emphasized the importance of alliances with democracies and strengthening national defense. Around the same time, former Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Tsai Ing-wen announced a one-year extension of compulsory military service for men.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has been increasing total defense spending in its annual budget, reaching 2.6% of GDP this year, and plans to increase it again in 2025, according to local reports.

Strengthening defense requires more weapons from the United States As of February this year, the country was waiting on a backlog of purchased U.S. weapons worth about $19 billion, according to the Cato Institute.

A bipartisan delegation of U.S. lawmakers met with Jimmy Lai in May and pledged to provide weapons and a $2 billion support package to Taiwan’s military.

According to a Council on Foreign Relations report, China’s latest official defense budget is $224 billion, about 12 times that of Taiwan.

“In general, the Taiwanese government and society feel a certain degree of unease or anxiety,” said Huang Guibo, a professor of diplomacy at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University and secretary-general of the Taiwan Council on Foreign Relations.

He added that if Trump wins, Taiwan is expected to continue expanding its defense budget to at least 3% of GDP, which is comparable to what former presidential advisers reportedly considered asking NATO members.

Lu Zhong, a professor at Sam Houston State University, said that although the U.S. election will definitely bring greater deterrence pressure to Taiwan, it is beneficial to Taiwan because Taiwan must deal with severe realities.

“As for the self-defense plan, Taiwan will continue its current approach, but it will not be easy to fill the gap in the Taiwan Strait,” he said.

—CNBC’s Zenith Wong contributed to this report.