Harris eliminates Trump’s economic lead: CNBC/Generation Lab investigation

Young Americans don’t appear to hold Vice President Kamala Harris responsible for the deterioration of the U.S. economy under the Biden-Harris administration, according to a new CNBC and Generation Lab survey.

The latest quarterly Youth & Money Survey, conducted after Biden dropped out of the race in July, found that 69% of Americans ages 18 to 34 believe the economy is getting worse under President Joe Biden.

But they also believe that the candidate most capable of improving the economy is the de facto Democratic candidate Harris, not the Republican candidate and former President Trump.

Forty-one percent of respondents said Harris was the best candidate on the economy, 40% chose Trump, and 19% said that under third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and others, , the economy will perform better.

The result amounts to a 7-point shift in Democratic support for the economy since CNBC asked the same question in its Youth & Money survey in May. At that time, only 34% of respondents thought Biden (the then possible Democratic candidate) was the best candidate to boost the economy, 40% chose Trump, and 25% thought Kennedy.

Overall, there was a broader shift among respondents in voting support for Harris. If the presidential election were held today, the latest poll found that among young Americans, Harris led Trump by 12 points, 46% to 34%, while 21% said they would vote for Kennedy or another candidate.

Three months ago, the same survey found Trump and Biden virtually tied, with 36% backing Biden, 35% backing Trump and 29% planning to vote for Kennedy.

Today, Harris’s surge in support is even more remarkable because the economy is so important to the vote choices of young Americans.

According to the latest CNBC survey data, when respondents were asked what factors would influence their decision on who to vote for, “the economy and cost of living” were mentioned the most, with 66% of respondents ranking it at the top of their list. Three. In second place was “access to abortion and reproductive rights” at 34%, followed by “gun violence/control” at 26%.

Still, the results raise red flags for Harris and Democrats.

To win the White House, Harris will likely need to do better among young people in November than the 12-point lead she currently holds in CNBC and Generation Lab surveys.

With less than 90 days until Election Day on Nov. 5, these new results could have a major impact on a presidential race that has been altered by Biden’s decision to drop out.

As pollsters race to gather data on whether Harris’ candidacy will change the race, one of the biggest unanswered questions in both parties is whether Americans will shift to Biden after years of high inflation and dissatisfaction?

The findings suggest that the political drag of “Bidenomics” has so far not had an impact on Harris — at least not among young people.

Taking 2020 as an example, Biden won the support of voters aged 18 to 29 by a 24-point margin, with 59% of the vote, compared to 35% for Trump.

Although young people have long been an important constituency for Democratic candidates, this year, depending on which states Kennedy appears on the ballot, the embattled anti-vaccine independent may still be able to steal enough votes from Harris to make the cut. Her overall vote.

Turnout is also a potential trouble spot for Democrats. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, people aged 18 to 34 make up about a quarter of the U.S. population, about 76 million people. In the last presidential election in 2020, 57% of this age group voted.

In the survey, 77% of respondents said they would definitely or probably vote. But in past elections, the number of people who said they planned to vote was often much higher than the number of people who actually voted.

In the end, as is often the case in elections, the economy itself could hurt or help Harris, depending on which way it goes.

For example, the poll was conducted between July 22 and 29, when the latest jobs report showed a contraction, raising new fears of a recession.

This photo was also taken before the market sell-off on August 5, which was driven in part by concerns over a shaky jobs report.

Meanwhile, most polls of all adults, not just young people, still show Trump retaining his edge in terms of which candidate voters trust more to improve the economy.

If any more bad economic news emerges between now and November, voters are likely to blame Harris (who has yet to fully articulate a different economic agenda from Biden) and turn to the perceived safety of Trump’s familiar economic agenda sex.

The survey interviewed 1,043 adults aged 18 to 34 and has a margin of error of 3.0%.