Former President Donald Trump (left) and Vice President Kamal Harris
Reuters
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll.
The poll found Harris beat Trump 50% to 46% among likely voters in the three states, though those leads were still within the survey’s margin of error. Likely voters are part of the entire pool of registered voters surveyed.
The poll surveyed 619 registered voters in Michigan and 661 registered voters in Wisconsin from Monday through Thursday. The poll surveyed 693 registered Pennsylvania voters from Tuesday through Friday.
Across all registered voters, the head-to-head results were slightly different: Harris held a four-point lead in Wisconsin, but led by three in Pennsylvania and actually trailed Trump by three in Michigan.
The Times/Siena poll is the latest data point tracking a broader shakeup that has occurred since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee. While polls still show the two candidates in a close race, Harris has clearly fundamentally changed the shape of the race from a month ago.
In the weeks following Biden’s exit, Harris made up much of the Democrats’ lost poll support, even taking over Trump’s lead in some cases.
In May, even before the president’s disastrous debate performance in June, a Times/Siena poll found Biden squarely tied with Trump in Wisconsin. Biden trails the Republican presidential candidate in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The Trump campaign said in a memo on Saturday that the Times/Siena poll “significantly underestimates” support for Trump among registered and likely voters.
“Once again we are seeing the release of a series of public surveys with the express intent and purpose of dampening support for President Trump,” Republican pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Tim Thaler wrote in the memo.
Even after the Democratic reshuffle, one result remains unchanged: The economy is the top voter issue among registered voters.
Recession fears became more apparent last week after stocks plunged on Monday and struggled to regain gains in the days that followed. The market fell in part because of a weaker-than-expected jobs report, which raised concerns that the Fed’s failure to cut interest rates would put too much pressure on the economy.
Trump holds a nine-point lead among voters over Harris’ handling of the economy, according to a Times/Siena poll.
The Times/Siena investigation also comes as voters deal with Harris’ choice for running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whom she selected on Tuesday after a rigorous vetting process. Although Walz had little national visibility just two weeks ago, he has catapulted into the spotlight for his outspoken media interviews, affable demeanor and turn to politics after working as a high school teacher.
Despite Walz’s highly progressive policy record, some Democrats see his rural Midwestern background as an opportunity to broaden the Democratic coalition.
The Times/Siena poll found that Walz’s support among registered voters was 36%, the same as Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. However, only 27% of respondents viewed Walz negatively, while 46% viewed Vance negatively.
In addition to rising poll numbers since launching her presidential campaign, Harris has enjoyed a surge of enthusiasm in the form of record donation levels, new volunteer signups and arena-filling rally crowds.
With 87 days until the election and even less time until early voting, the Harris campaign has been working to ensure that the initial hype translates into real votes at the ballot box.
“We’re at a disadvantage in this race, but we have momentum and I know exactly what we’re facing,” Harris told a rally of more than 12,000 people in Philadelphia on Wednesday.
