KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian troops and Russian reinforcements appear to be preparing for a major confrontation in the region after a surprising offensive by Ukrainian forces in villages and towns in western Russia.
Ukrainian troops poured into Russia’s Kursk region on the border with Ukraine, catching the Russians off guard and encountering limited resistance in the first days of a campaign that began last Tuesday. Progress by the Ukrainians slowed over the weekend, but it was unclear whether the Ukrainians encountered greater resistance or were simply trying to consolidate the gains they had already made.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a nighttime video address that he was receiving regular updates on operations aimed at “pushing the war into the territory of the aggressor”.
The president added that the offensive “is exactly the pressure that is needed – pressure on the aggressor”.
It was Zelenskiy’s clearest statement on the offensive, which tight-lipped Ukrainian officials refused to even acknowledge in the early days.
Ukrainian soldiers post on social media from inside Russia
Although some information has begun to emerge, Ukraine has still not provided details. Ukrainian troops began posting on social media in Russia. They tore down Russian flags in captured villages or stood in front of road signs to indicate they had entered towns.
In Russia, the military and other security officials are issuing brief statements signaling Russia’s intention to quickly push back the Ukrainians and retake Russia’s borders. Russian television is showing footage of tanks and armored vehicles entering the Kursk region.
However, many Russian military blogs remain critical of Russia’s response, describing it as slow and disorganized.
As Ukrainian troops moved in, tens of thousands of Russian civilians fled Kursk, with some complaining on social media that the Russian government failed to warn them or provide for an organized evacuation. Many people said they fled their homes within a short period of time, taking only a few belongings and throwing them into their cars.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said those displaced would receive 10,000 rubles, equivalent to $115 at current exchange rates.
Another battle in Kursk
The move in Ukraine has been described as the first time a foreign country has taken control of parts of Russia or the Soviet Union since Nazi Germany invaded in World War II. That war featured a monumental battle between Nazi and Soviet troops at Kursk, which historians say was the largest tank battle of all time and one of the largest battles of the war. In July and August 1943, after more than a month of fighting, the Soviet Union achieved victory. This battle was considered a key battle to defeat the Nazis.
The opposing forces in Kursk are much smaller today, but the Ukrainian offensive has changed the dynamics of the war.
Russia has been on the offensive for months, advancing steadily in the eastern Donbas region and seizing several villages. Wave after wave of Russian ground attacks inflicted heavy casualties.
The villages were largely reduced to rubble when the Russians captured them, and military analysts say they have no strategic value. Still, Russia’s advances reflected Ukraine’s insurmountable force and firepower superiority throughout the war.
Ukraine’s goals unclear
Ukraine’s unexpected offensive boosted the morale of the Ukrainians and caused the Russians to suffer an unexpected setback on their own soil. This operation once again demonstrated Ukraine’s ability to take actions that would catch Russia off guard.
“Ukraine still has the initiative and momentum for this operation,” said Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “But its goals are unclear. If Ukraine is more successful than expected, then they will become Be more ambitious. Conversely, if the operation doesn’t go well, then they may become more conservative and narrow their goals.”
He emphasized that Ukraine’s operation was a major gamble because its troops were already stretched thin, especially on the main battlefield in the east of the country.
“If Ukraine is struggling to hold its own prepared defenses on its territory, how can it hold on to Kursk on Russian territory?” Kovman regularly visits the Ukrainian frontline, most recently in June. “How will Ukraine deal with the larger territory it has to defend, beyond the front lines it is currently pushed back against?”
The Biden administration says Ukraine gave no advance notice of the invasion of Russia. The U.S. government, wary of actions that could lead to an escalation or wider war, did not express objections to Ukraine’s attack but said it wanted to know more about Ukraine’s intentions.
At the same time, Russia has not relaxed its bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities, killing more than 20 Ukrainian civilians in recent days.
Russia launched 57 drones overnight at about a dozen different towns, the Ukrainian air force said on Sunday, shooting down all but a handful of them. Russia also launched four large missiles made by North Korea. Ukraine said the missiles were also hit in flight, but falling debris still made them dangerous.
A 35-year-old man and his 4-year-old son were killed when debris from a missile crashed into an apartment building on the outskirts of the capital, Kiev, officials said. They were among eight Ukrainian civilians killed in various attacks on Saturday and Sunday.
A Russian missile attack on Friday caused a fire at a supermarket in the eastern town of Kostianevka, killing 14 people and injuring dozens more, officials added.