African National Congress (ANC) polling staff set up a tent decorated with party paraphernalia outside a polling station in Umlazi during South Africa’s general election on May 29.
Zinyange Auntony/AFP via Getty Images
hide title
Switch title
Zinyange Auntony/AFP via Getty Images
JOHANNESBURG – South Africa’s ruling African National Congress has lost its outright majority for the first time, dealing a devastating blow to the party once led by Nelson Mandela. The ANC has dominated South African politics since winning the first post-apartheid election 30 years ago.
Pre-election polls on Wednesday predicted a disappointing result for the African National Congress, but the final result was more sobering. It won 40% of the vote, down from 57% in 2019.
Tessa Dooms, director of the South African think tank Rivonia Circle, said this was a historic result that weakened the power of the African National Congress for three decades. “The South African election was an important watershed that fundamentally changed politics,” she said.
Under the constitution, the party with the most votes has two weeks from the confirmation of the results to form a new government. The ANC must now form a coalition government with one or more opposition parties for the first time to stay in power.
Women with children walk past 2024 election posters in Tembisa, east of Johannesburg, South Africa.
Themba Hadebe/Associated Press
hide title
Switch title
Themba Hadebe/Associated Press
Driving the party’s declining support is a very bleak reality for millions of people.
South Africa remains one of the most unequal countries in the world, with an unemployment rate of 32% and soaring crime rates. Huge dissatisfaction with water and electricity shortages, as well as corruption, has led to growing criticism of the ANC government.
For many, initial progress away from white minority rule did not last. Despite significant achievements in Africa’s most industrialized country, the inequalities left by the apartheid regime persist and have worsened even further over the past decade. The party’s vote share has fallen by several percentage points at every election since 2004 – a situation exacerbated by a generation gap, with younger voters born after apartheid, the so-called “born free”, voting for non- NUS is less likely.
“On the one hand, we overcame apartheid as a structural force, but on the other hand, we didn’t actually change many of the dynamics,” Dumes said. “We inherited a form of inequality and we doubled it in South Africa. inequality and another form of inequality that hurts us.
But Dumus said the gradual decline in support for the ANC over the past 20 years had become even more dramatic at this election. “The ANC has collapsed to some extent in the form of its former president, Jacob Zuma. The rise of MK is undoubtedly the biggest news of this election.
The fall and rise of Zuma
The election features the controversial, convicted former ANC leader’s new party, the MK Party. MK was named after the disbanded ANC military wing and was registered six months ago. But in a very short period of time, the party has exceeded expectations. The party has a base of many former ANC supporters and a group of mostly poor Zulu South Africans who followed Zuma’s leadership and left the ANC. It is now South Africa’s third largest party, with nearly 15% support.
It marks the dramatic fall and rise of the 82-year-old leader. While the conviction bars him from being elected to parliament, as leader of the People’s Party he can now become an important player in negotiations to form a new coalition government and use his powers to try to avoid further convictions.
Zuma was forced to resign as president in 2018 and was convicted in 2021 of failing to appear in a corruption trial against him. He is also due to be tried again next year on suspicion of corruption related to a 1999 arms deal.
African National Congress and former South African President Jacob Zuma wave to supporters after voting in Nkandla, KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, during the general election on Wednesday, May 29, 2024.
Emilio Morenati/AP
hide title
Switch title
Emilio Morenati/AP
The populist leader blames his successor, President Cyril Ramaphosa, for his legal troubles. Now that Zuma has handed his opponents a major defeat, he may face pressure from some in his party to resign.
Duduzile Sambudla, Zuma’s daughter and a member of the People’s Party, told NPR that “the People’s Party is unwilling to ally with Ramaphosa’s African National Congress,” which she said means even if A coalition can be formed without Ramaphosa.
The South African People’s Party’s victory against the ANC was most notable in KwaZulu Natal (KZN), South Africa’s second most populous province. The party overwhelmingly won nearly 46% of the vote, while the African National Congress won nearly 18%.
In 1994, liberation icon Nelson Mandela voted for the first time at Orange High School in Durban, Kansas, when he was inaugurated as president. Thirty years later, many voters in the same voting units expressed similar sentiments: frustration with the state of the country and a desire for change.
Shortly after polls opened at 7am on Wednesday, 24-year-old Nqobile Khumalo arrived at the polling station and cast his first vote. “We really hope there will be change,” she said. Tracy Bongiwe Zondo, 39, goes even further. “Before I voted for the ANC, but now I vote for the People’s Party because I need change in our community,” she said.
President Ramaphosa’s future is now an open question. He was the first ANC president to lose his party’s majority, with his vote share falling significantly (17%) and turnout falling to 58%. ANC elections chief Nomvula Mokonyane told NPR Ramaphosa will not step down. “No one is going to resign,” she said. But Ramaphosa faces major existential challenges in his second term, which is likely to be divisive if he succeeds in forming a results-based government.
South African President Cyril Ramaphos (center) speaks to reporters after voting in the general election in Soweto, South Africa, Wednesday, May 29, 2024. South Africans voted in what is considered the country’s most important election in 30 years. It could put young democracies into uncharted territory.
Jerome DeLay/AP
hide title
Switch title
Jerome DeLay/AP
A new era of coalition government
Professor David Everett from Wits School of Management said the result forced the ANC to work with another party, which was a positive step for the country. “I think it’s a particularly good thing for South Africa that the ANC suddenly has to take responsibility, rather than gaining majority after majority,” he said.
South Africa has long had coalition governments at the local level, but never at the federal level, and the composition of an ANC coalition government is now a big question.
The party could form an alliance with the official opposition Democratic Alliance, a center-right party led and supported mainly by South Africa’s white minority party that won nearly 22% of the vote. “There are two factions in the ANC. The party led by President Ramaphosa is more concerned about the state of the economy and will probably look at the DA,” Everett said. But the move could alienate many in the ANC’s other factions, who see it as a red line.
The ANC could also form an alliance with the South African People’s Party, giving Zuma influence in the government, or with the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters party led by another former ANC youth leader, Julius Malema. Some experts said the party’s fourth place with 9% of the vote was also influenced by the MK Party’s higher-than-expected support.
But a coalition with either or both parties, largely generated by the ANC, could be unstable because of the disagreements that split the parties in the first place. “To ally yourself with your mortal enemies, the EFF and the PPP, you are asking for political dominance as they seek to further undermine the ANC and take over it,” Everett said.
The ANC transformed from a beloved liberation movement into a dominant political force in South African politics. But its influence on South African politics is waning as it strives to contain divisions and address the country’s major challenges.
South African politics may have just changed permanently from the days of one-party rule. More parties and independent candidates than ever before are forming and offering alternatives within the country’s proportional representation system – a reality the ANC must now contend with.
