While Hamas and the Israeli government appear to be inching closer to a ceasefire, analysts are deeply skeptical that the two sides will implement a deal that goes beyond a temporary truce.
At issue is a three-phase deal proposed by Israel and backed by the United States and some Arab countries that, if fully realized, could eventually lead to the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the return of all those involved in the Oct. 17 attack. The remaining hostages were captured.
But getting to the finish line is impossible if all parties are unwilling to even start the race or agree on where it will end. Fundamentally, the debate is not just how long the ceasefire in Gaza should last or when it should be implemented, but whether Israel can accept a long-term ceasefire as long as Hamas retains significant control.
For Israel to agree to Hamas’ demands for a permanent ceasefire from the outset, it must acknowledge that Hamas will not be destroyed and will play a role in the future of the territory, a condition that the Israeli government cannot tolerate. Hamas, on the other hand, has said it will not consider a temporary ceasefire, even at the cost of countless Palestinian lives, without guarantees of a permanent ceasefire that would effectively ensure its survival, lest Israel restart the war upon the return of the hostages.
However, after eight months of brutal war, there are signs that the two sides may be approaching the first phase of the proposal: a six-week conditional ceasefire. Analysts say that while this step is difficult to guarantee, moving to the second phase of the plan – a permanent cessation of hostilities and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza – is even less likely.
“It would be a mistake to view this proposal as a stopgap measure,” said Natan Sachs, director of the Middle East Policy Center at the Brookings Institution. “Most importantly, the plan does not answer the fundamental question of who will rule Gaza after the conflict. This is a ceasefire plan, not an afterthought.
Hamas leaders and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government are considering what the deal means not just for the future of the war but for their own political futures. In an effort to gain support from partners skeptical of the first phase of the plan, Mr. Netanyahu has been particularly inclined to keep his commitments on later phases vague.
There are influential figures in each camp who are willing to prolong the war. Some within Hamas say the group, which is dominated by those still in Gaza such as local leader Yahya Sinwar, should not agree to any deal that does not lead to an immediate and permanent ceasefire. In Israel, Mr Netanyahu’s far-right allies threaten to overthrow his government at the mere mention of an end to the war and a full troop withdrawal.
Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan told a news conference on Tuesday that the group would not ratify an agreement if it did not start with the promise of a permanent ceasefire and include the full withdrawal of Israeli troops and “serious and serious agreement” terms. The real deal,” exchanging the remaining hostages for more Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.
“It’s clear to everyone that this proposal is primarily political,” said Shlomo Brohm, a retired brigadier general and senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies.
“The first phase is good for Netanyahu because some hostages will be released,” Mr. Brohm said. “But he will never get to the second phase. As before, he will find that there is something wrong with Hamas’s approach, and it will not be hard to find.
More than 100 hostages were released in November under a more limited deal that lasted about a week. Netanyahu said that Hamas had not handed over all female hostages as promised; Hamas said that Israel rejected other options. After the ceasefire agreement expired, Hamas fired rockets into Israel. Since then, the war has not ceased.
There is no guarantee this time that the first phase will follow the second phase. Analysts agree that this could suit Mr Netanyahu well, trying to appease the Americans with a temporary ceasefire and increased aid to Gaza while looking for reasons not to go beyond the deal.
Analysts say Netanyahu hopes Hamas will not agree to the proposal at all, letting him off the hook. As hostilities with Hezbollah heat up in the north, he has suggested to allies that even if he must agree to the Gaza proposal, a second phase of talks could continue indefinitely.
President Biden, who proposed the plan at the White House last week, has his own political considerations for getting the two sides to reach an agreement as soon as possible. Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment, said he clearly wants to stop the war in Gaza before the November presidential election, adding, “The only party that’s really anxious is Biden.”
Therefore, Biden is urging Netanyahu and Hamas to accept the agreement as soon as possible.
As Israeli troops reached the Egyptian border and major operations in the war wound down, the president said Hamas was no longer capable of launching another Oct. 7-style attack and urged Netanyahu to publicly accept his own proposal.
Netanyahu has gone to great lengths to confuse everyone about his intentions, denying that his goal of dismantling Hamas has changed and refusing to support a permanent end to the fighting, which he called “impossible” on Sunday.
Biden also stressed that Hamas “should accept the deal,” but Hamas did not accept the deal and only said it viewed the proposal “positively.”
As Mr. Biden and his officials explained, the proposal has three phases.
In the first phase, both sides will observe a six-week ceasefire. Israel will withdraw its troops from Gaza’s main population center and some hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, will be released. The hostages will be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees, whose names are still subject to negotiation. Aid will begin flowing into Gaza, with about 600 trucks in use every day. Displaced Palestinian civilians will be allowed to return to their homes in northern Gaza.
During the first phase, Israel and Hamas will continue negotiations to reach a second phase: a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of all remaining living hostages. Biden said if negotiations take longer than six weeks, the first phase of the truce will continue until a deal is reached.
If they did.
Israeli officials from Netanyahu down insist that Israel must retain security control of Gaza in the future, so they are unlikely to agree to a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the buffer zone they have established inside Gaza. Even if they do, Israel insists it is necessary to enter and exit Gaza at all times to fight remaining or reestablished Hamas or other militants, as it is doing now in the West Bank.
As one former senior intelligence official put it, “There are no good solutions here, and everyone knows it.”
He said it was a real dilemma to stop the war without ensuring that Hamas could not come back. But is it realistic to expect that continuing the war will achieve this goal? Freeing the hostages – an estimated 125 of whom are still held by Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza, although dozens are believed to be dead – is a priority, but it is unclear whether continuing the war will increase Hamas’s pressure. Even if Israel stops the war after so many months in captivity, their release may take more time than it does now.
The timing may also be suitable for a first-phase deal, as Israel works to complete military control of Rafah, the southernmost tip of Gaza, and the Egyptian border. Under U.S. pressure, Israel is fighting with fewer troops, less bombing and more care for civilians, and Israeli officials say the battle is expected to take another two to three weeks, roughly the same as the first day of negotiations. Time required for phased ceasefire agreement – Fire Agreement.
Israeli forces are slowly moving into the more populated areas of Rafah city, forcing civilians to evacuate further west to the coast and areas officially designated as safe zones, although housing, water, food and medical care are rudimentary at best and civilians remain Continue to live.
“Israeli forces continue to conduct clearing operations” and “targeted intelligence-based operations” in central Rafah, according to Israeli officials and the Institute for War Research, which tracks the conflict. They attacked what Israel called an “active combat complex” on Monday and carried out drone and air strikes on what it called the Hamas weapons production site in Rafah. Hamas militants responded with mortars, roadside bombs and rocket-propelled grenades along the border.
With Hamas forces effectively dismantled into organized forces and fighting almost exclusively in small groups, analysts say Israel could declare the main war in Gaza over while continuing to fight Hamas and other militants Fighting occurs or is still concentrated in places to open the way for Israeli military operations.
“Israel did a lot of things that caused Hamas’s power to decline dramatically,” Sachs said. But Israel has taken no steps to administer Gaza after its troops withdraw.
Mr. Brom agreed that the Israeli military had made real progress. “My interpretation,” he said, “is that Hamas’s military and terrorist capabilities have been severely weakened.” It is always difficult to declare victory in such an asymmetric conflict, he said. “Have we defeated ISIS? It is still alive and operating” but greatly weakened.
Analysts say Mr Netanyahu has refused to decide who or who will rule Gaza, if not Hamas, despite constant urging from the United States.
“This is supposed to be a comprehensive political and military strategy, but the political aspect is completely lacking,” Mr Brohm said. “We can stop Hamas from ruling Gaza, but who will replace them? This is the Achilles’ heel of the entire operation.
