Supporters listen to President Biden speak at a Black Voter for Biden event at Girard College in Philadelphia on Wednesday, May 29. In 2020, Biden won the support of black voters under the age of 45 by about 80%.
Evan Vucci/AP/Associated Press
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Evan Vucci/AP/Associated Press
With five months until the presidential election, the state of the youth vote remains a question mark in some quarters.
It’s an oft-reported topic as President Biden continues to score poorly among Gen Z and Millennial voters, even though those same age groups clearly voted for him four years ago.
But support among young black, Latino and Asian American voters, who overwhelmingly supported Biden in 2020 at higher rates than young white voters, has fallen sharply, according to the University of Chicago’s latest GenForward survey.
The survey, obtained exclusively by NPR and conducted May 10-22, examined the political attitudes of 2,089 Americans under the age of 40, including whites, blacks, Latinos, Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders ( AAPI ) samples are essentially the same.
The survey found that only a third of young Americans said they would support Biden if an election were held at the time of the survey. Polls also reflect a virtual tie in the race. Biden leads former President Donald Trump by just two percentage points, with 34% of respondents currently supporting a third-party candidate or saying they would support “someone else.”
Additionally, despite speculation that U.S. support for Israel could have a negative impact on Biden’s youth coalition, the poll found that the Gaza war was not a top voting issue for most young Americans. Instead, economic concerns, particularly inflation, remain front and center.
That said, the economy is one of several policy areas, along with immigration and the Gaza war, where respondents are less likely to choose Biden as the best candidate to deal with the issue, illustrating his popularity among younger Americans. ‘s campaign may have deeper problems.
Biden’s 2020 coalition missing in 2024
By race and ethnicity, Biden’s standing has especially declined among black and Latino young people.
In 2020, 89% of black voters aged 18-29 voted for Biden, and 78% of black voters aged 30-44 voted for Biden. In the latest GenForward survey, only 33% said they would support him if the election were held today, with 23% choosing Trump.
Trump beat Biden by four percentage points among young Latino voters. Biden’s support is down significantly from four years ago, when he won 69% of Latino voters under 30 and 62% of Latino voters ages 30-44.
When looking at only a sample of registered voters, Biden’s numbers improved and put him ahead of Trump among Latino voters, but the gap remained narrow. Biden’s support among black voters rose just two points to 35%.
“Young people are saying to Joe Biden, ‘Win me, win my vote,'” said Cathy Cohen, a professor at the University of Chicago and founder and leader of the GenForward poll. “‘Don’t think I’m going to vote for you now.'”
This statement is especially true for individuals who are still looking for alternative candidates even though the presidential primaries are essentially over. Among black and Latino Americans, about a quarter said they would vote for someone else.
There are several avenues for “other” voters, and Cohen believes opinions may change as the election approaches.
“When we start to get into summer, that’s how young people show up,” she added. “Come November, when things get more critical…the numbers may be different.”
But in GenForward’s June survey four years ago (excluding third-party candidates), Biden’s approval rating was indeed much higher. He has the support of a majority of black, Latino and Asian Americans, with an average of just 15% saying they would vote for someone else.
The latest polls, which include third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, may also indicate other names on the ballot that could split young people’s votes in the fall. The latest Harvard Youth Poll reflects similar results, with Biden beating Trump in head-to-head matchups but the gap narrowing when third-party candidates are included.
Economic issues are driving voters, not Israel’s war with Hamas
When asked what was the most important issue on the ballot this fall, inflation ranked No. 1 among all groups. For black, Latino and Asian and Pacific Islander young people, concerns about economic growth ranked second, while “threats to American democracy” ranked second among whites.
For Cohen, many of Biden’s questions revolve around the current state of the economy, and while inflation is slowing, she believes those shifts haven’t fully resonated yet.
“I think these young people are facing rising rents, rising food prices, rising gas costs, and I think they don’t have as much income flexibility as older people,” she explained.
Gen Z and Millennials aren’t the only ones prioritizing finances. It consistently ranks No. 1 across generations and racial groups. In this latest poll, issues typically associated with young voters, such as abortion rights, curbing gun violence, fighting climate change and ending the war in Gaza, appear to be lower on the list of important issues.
When asked which presidential candidate would do best on immigration and inflation, Trump had the highest overall approval rating. However, in this question, respondents had Trump, Biden, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West, and “none of them,” followed closely by “none of them.” .
One of Biden’s areas of relative strength, abortion access, has been a cornerstone of his campaign. Biden leads by just three points, followed by the “neither” option.
In the 2022 midterm elections, protecting abortion rights was the top motivation for voters under 30, who overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates.
In the GenForward poll, this remains an important election issue: One-third of respondents said they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, and nearly half agreed that individuals should ” Always have access to abortion as a ‘personal choice’
Regarding the Israel-Hamas war, only 4% of young Americans said it was the most important voting issue to them. Knowledge gaps also exist on the topic. Respondents were most likely to choose “don’t know” when answering questions about support and sympathy for Israel and the Palestinian people, as well as a choice between Hamas, the Israeli government, and the U.S. government.
The issue is even more important among young Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, with 10 percent saying it is the most important issue on the ballot and six in 10 wanting a permanent ceasefire.
Young people generally support an end to the war, with 53% supporting a permanent ceasefire.
That said, support for Biden’s approach to the conflict is low, at 12%, while 49% disapprove and 39% choose no option.
Cohen believes this all underscores the complex choices facing many undecided young Americans this fall, especially for voters of color who may often align with Democratic values.
The possible options are: go back to Biden, or actually stay home.
“In swing states, if the Biden campaign relies on these young people and they don’t vote, then in a way that’s a vote for Trump,” Cohen said.
“I don’t think we take seriously enough,” she continued, “what does it mean if enough young black people or enough young people of color decide not to vote?”
