A year in jail but still dominant opposition figure

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has now been in jail for a year – although sometimes you would hardly know it.

Mr Khan remains a dominant force in Pakistan’s opposition politics. His name still appears in newspapers and courtrooms. His social media supporters have been relentless.

With no public appearances, the few people allowed to see the former cricket star regularly – his lawyers and family – have become his conduits to the outside world. They were keen to convey the message that he had spent 365 days in jail but had not given in.

“He still has a sense of swagger,” said Aleema Khanum, Imran Khan’s sister. “He had no needs, no wants – just a career.”

Mr Khan spends his days riding an exercise bike, reading and thinking, according to those who visit him. He spends an hour every day walking in the yard. There were occasional disagreements over how quickly the family could get him new books.

“He said ‘I’m not going to waste a minute of my time in prison, this is my chance to gain more knowledge’,” Ms Kanum told the BBC.

But the fact is that Mr Khan and his wife Bushira Bibi remain trapped in jail, with no sign they will be released any time soon.

To some, this is not surprising.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, said, “I didn’t expect Mr. Khan to do anything that would get him out of prison easily.”

Kugelman said the military – Pakistan’s powerful mastermind – “doesn’t let up when they decide they want to jail a politician”. “That’s especially true in Khan’s case.”

Indeed, the military has played a key role in many of the ups and downs of Mr Khan’s life over the past decade. Many analysts believe it was his initial close ties to the military that helped him win power.

But by May 9 last year, everything fell apart. Mr Khan, who was ousted in a no-confidence vote in 2022, has been arrested and his supporters have come out in protest.

Some of these protests turned violent, with military buildings attacked, including the residence of the top army officer in Lahore, which was looted and set on fire.

A source from the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) said that afterwards Pakistani media houses informed Stop showing his picture, saying his name, or playing his voice.

Mr Khan was released – but ultimately only for a few months.

On August 5, he was jailed again for failing to properly declare the sale of a state gift—and that was just the beginning.

Cases against him were mounting in the run-up to the election. By early February, just days before the vote, the 71-year-old had been sentenced to three lengthy prison sentences, the last of which was 14 years.

By the time of the election, many candidates from Mr Khan’s PTI party were also in jail or in hiding, and the party was stripped of its well-known cricket bat symbol, an important symbol of the country. 58% literacy rate.

Still, “we are determined to make a statement,” said Mr. Khan’s lawyer and election candidate Salman Akram Raja.

“It’s very restrictive and many people can’t campaign at all. Losing the cricket bat symbol is a blow to the body.

All candidates are running as independents, but even within the party, hopes are low.

However, Imran Khan-backed candidates won more seats than anyone else, forcing his political rivals to form alliances to stop them. Meanwhile, the PTI was forced to fight for many seats in the courts, claiming the results were rigged.

Supporters see the February 8 election as a turning point, a testament to the powerful message Mr Khan has delivered – even from behind bars.

“February 8 expressed a change,” Aleema Khanum said. “Change is coming, it’s in the air.”

Others said the results, in fact, did not change the status quo.

“We’re really within the historical precedent of what we can expect,” Mr. Kugelman said.

“PTI has not formed a government, its leader remains in jail and the ruling coalition is led by a military-backed party.”

But things do appear to be improving for Mr. Khan and his supporters recently.

All three pre-election verdicts have expired, a United Nations panel declared his detention arbitrary and Pakistan’s Supreme Court said the Tehreek-e-Insaf was an official party and should be given “reserved seats”; reserved for women and non-Muslims seats, allocated in proportion to the number of seats won by the party.

But there has yet to be a real impact: Mr Khan remains in jail on new cases and the reserved seat has not yet been allocated.

His wife, Bushra Bibi, whose sentence was quashed on appeal in a case that declared their marriage illegal, remains in jail on new charges.

At the same time, the government has made clear that it views Mr. Khan and his party as a public threat. The company announced earlier this month that it planned to seek a ban on PTI despite warnings from groups including the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan.

The military has also shown no sign of changing its mind. On the anniversary of May 9 this year, its public relations department issued a statement saying it would not compromise with “planners, facilitators and executors” or allow them to “cheat the laws of the country”.

Most analysts believe it is this relationship with the military that Mr Khan really needs to sort out before he can finally escape from prison.

“I think we can come up with an arrangement that provides a way out for everyone and allows the system to function properly,” said Mr. Raja, Mr. Khan’s lawyer.

Meanwhile, Mr Khan has been delivering his message from behind bars. Aleema Khanum recently said he had told the military to “remain neutral… and let the country continue to function”, calling it “the backbone of Pakistan”.

Although the use of the word “neutrality” has been welcomed, some commentators still view it as an olive branch. When the Army previously declared itself politically neutral, he scoffed at the claim, saying “only animals are neutral”.

He recently called for early elections, which some believe was one of his conditions to the military.

“I don’t think that’s realistic,” Mr. Kugelman said. “Khan may soften a bit over time. It’s one of the truisms of Pakistani politics: If you want to be prime minister, you need to be favored by the military, or at least not disapproved of by the military.” good.

For now at least, the stalemate continues.