ANC appears to secure share power after historic loss

With most of the results of South Africa’s elections already in, the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC) will have to face power-sharing issues after a historic loss of its parliamentary majority.

More than 97% of the constituency votes have been counted and the ANC’s vote share currently stands at 40%.

It was followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 22%, the MK party led by former President Jacob Zuma with 15% and the EFF with 9%.

Final results are expected over the weekend.

Since the country’s first democratic elections in 1994, when Nelson Mandela became president, the ANC’s approval rating has always been above 50%.

But support for the party has plummeted amid anger over corruption, unemployment and high crime rates.

A woman who has voted for the ANC at every election for 30 years has switched her support to the DA this time, saying she wants them to step down entirely due to the cost of living crisis and frequent power cuts.

“This is not a good outcome. I hope the government doesn’t do this. We need to give other people a chance,” she told the BBC.

Political analyst Sanusha Naidoo told the BBC that while there were still a large number of votes to be counted, the ANC was unlikely to reach the 50% needed to form a government on its own. She said the best hope is 45%

Therefore, in order to retain power, the party needs to form a coalition with one or more other parties.

ANC chairman Gwede Mantashe said the party was unlikely to form an alliance with the centre-right DA, which is currently in second place with 22% of the vote.

He said there must be “policy agreement” between parties to the coalition agreement.

For the ANC, its black empowerment policy – aimed at giving black people a place in the economy after being excluded during the racist apartheid era – is “non-negotiable”.

He added that any coalition partners would have to agree to the National Health Insurance (NHI) bill signed into law earlier this month.

The DA opposed the NHS and the ANC’s black empowerment policies.

Support for the DA appears to have increased in this election, with the party regaining the votes of whites who supported right-wing parties in the last election, as well as the votes of some blacks who feel they need to be given a chance in national government.

Although the ANC is reluctant to form an alliance with the DA, its leader John Steenhuisen has not ruled out the idea.

Mr Steenhuisen said there would be some non-negotiable issues if a coalition was struck with the ANC.

“A social market economy that respects the rule of law and the constitution and respects the private sector as a partner in the growth agenda.

“There is zero tolerance for corruption and cadre redeployment, and we are absolutely focused on economic policies that promote employment.”

Steenhuisen also told the BBC he would have to consult with pre-selection coalition partners before considering any negotiations.

But he ruled out the EFF and the MK party, both of which advocate seizing white-owned land and nationalizing mines, as potential coalition partners.

“I don’t think instability is in the best interest of the country. Syriza, like the South African MK party and the EFF, will enact the same policies that destroyed Zimbabwe and destroyed Venezuela,” he said.

One possibility is for the former MK party to form an alliance with the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal and nationally, but this seems unlikely given the tensions between the two parties.

Although Mr Zuma has been suspended, he remains a member of the ANC. He appeared to suggest he would strike a deal with the country if the ANC replaced President Cyril Ramaphosa as leader.

“My problem is with the leadership of the ANC, not with the ANC itself or its members,” he told the BBC recently.

However, he was unwilling to discuss the prospect of a post-election agreement with the ANC.

But on Friday night, MK spokesman Nhlamulo Ndhlela appeared to rule out any deal to keep Ramaphosa in office, telling reporters that while the president remained in office, his party “will not Discussions with the ANC”.

Another option is to work with the Electronic Frontier Force, led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema. The two parties currently form a coalition to govern Johannesburg, the country’s largest city.

With a record 70 political parties and 11 independents running, South Africans voted for a new parliament and nine provincial legislatures.

The DA has signed an agreement with 10 of its members to form a coalition government if they get enough votes to oust the ANC from power.

But this does not include the EFF or MK, who would need to form a majority.

As various parties scramble to form a coalition, former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who leads the African Union’s election observation mission in South Africa, has provided some suggestions for forming a coalition.

He said the coalition government needed to focus on consensus rather than disagreement.

“I can only wish them the best and hope that the leadership takes a positive approach to this decision of the people,” he said.

Additional reporting by Anne Soy and Anthony Irungu