Sandra Oudkirk, who is coming to the end of her three years as the top U.S. representative in Taiwan, has some parting advice: Avoid panicking about China’s bellicose language and actions, but don’t become alarmed about the risks either. numbness.
Ms. O’Dekirk has been Washington’s de facto ambassador to Taiwan at a time when Taiwan’s democracy has become a crucible of tensions between Washington and Beijing. China claims Taiwan as its territory and must accept reunification by force if Beijing’s leaders deem it necessary.
At times, debates among Taiwanese and U.S. politicians, officials and experts have also taken on a tense tone over which mix of strategies — which military purchases, which soothing or tough rhetoric toward Beijing, which ties with other democracies? What steps can be taken to best reduce the risk of war.
O’Dekirk, who will leave office early next month, said Taiwan and its partners need to find a stable path and avoid hysteria and complacency.
“We get questions all the time about how dangerous Taiwan is – you know, Taiwan is the most dangerous place in the world,” she said, referring to a looming crisis or war. “Sometimes sound bites really don’t capture the full reality.”
But she added, referring to China: “When a government, a country, a leader tells you what they are thinking, what they are planning, you should listen to what they are saying.”
After decades of tirades from Beijing, many Taiwanese people have paid little attention. China’s military exercises and airspace intrusions are escalating but still cause little public alarm. Most Taiwanese also say they believe the United States would step in if China did threaten an invasion.
But this belief is not widespread among Taiwanese politicians and voters, some of whom are skeptical of U.S. dedication and intentions.
The United States has committed under a law to help Taiwan defend itself, with the option of sending U.S. troops if China attempts an armed takeover. Some U.S. commanders and experts say the possibility of an invasion is imminent: A few years ago, some cited 2027 as a possible date for Chinese military action. But Biden administration officials said they believed Chinese leader Xi Jinping had not given a clear deadline.
Even so, before and during Ms. O’Dekirk’s tenure as the top U.S. representative in Taiwan, China intensified its pressure campaign on the island, about 100 miles off its coast.
She was first sent to Taiwan as a consular officer in 1992, when the island had just emerged from decades of martial law and China was far less wealthy and well-equipped. She subsequently held positions in Dublin, Istanbul and Beijing.
Oederkirk became the de facto ambassador to Taiwan in mid-2021. In August 2022, Chinese troops held their most extensive ever drills around Taiwan, which Beijing said was retaliation for a visit to Taipei by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
This year’s presidential election in Taiwan favored Lai, a man deeply loathed by Beijing, triggering a new round of Chinese military drills near Taiwan and drawing fierce condemnation from Beijing after he took office in May. Jimmy Lai said at the time that he hoped to maintain Taiwan’s status quo – autonomy – but not formally declare independence. The reaction from Chinese officials was public, violent and disbelieving.
“His speech on May 20 was a naked declaration of Taiwan independence from beginning to end,” Lieutenant General He Lei, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, said in an interview during a recent visit to Singapore to attend a conference. “Now going deeper and deeper on the road to Taiwan independence will only bring greater dangers to the Taiwan Strait.”
Taiwan and Washington have stepped up cooperation in response to China’s warnings and growing power, and the U.S. representative office on a hillside northeast of Taipei is a tangible and steely symbol of that relationship.
Its official name is the American Institute in Taiwan, which sounds more like a language school than a diplomatic mission. The vague name is a concession to the fact that Washington ended formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 after the United States recognized Beijing.
The American Institute’s offices have been housed in crowded offices in downtown Taipei for years, and its official profile has been diminishing. The operation took pains to keep a low profile and did not frequently fly the American flag for decades.
Things are different now. The new institute building was built in 2019 and is so large that the number of employees has increased from 488 in 2019 to 585, according to the institute’s press office. The American flag now stands firmly atop the building.
“These are examples of progress in U.S.-Taiwan relations,” Ms. O’Dekirk’s former director of the American Institute in Taiwan, Brent Christensen, said in an interview. He now teaches at Brigham Young University.
“Much of it is guided by precedent,” Mr. Christensen said. “But the Trump administration cares less about precedent, so now is a good time to move beyond some of the restrictions we’ve imposed on ourselves.”
O’Dekirk said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a special turning point for Taiwan and its strengthening of ties with the United States during her three years as director.
“Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russian aggression is obviously very much in the news, especially in 2022,” she said. “This has really sparked a lot of public concern and debate about ‘What does this mean for Taiwan?'”
Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen extended the men’s military conscription period from four months to one year in 2022. Taiwan has also ordered more mobile missiles and other flexible weapons to deter Chinese attacks.
Kuo Youren, a professor of political science at National Sun Yat-sen University in southern Taiwan, said, “The degree of strategic integration between Taiwan and the United States is the highest level since the severance of diplomatic relations in 1979.”
Not all Taiwanese welcome the tighter embrace. Ms O’Dekirk’s tenure as representative also coincided with what locals called the “new wave”yi-mei-lun”, doubts about the United States, especially among voters who believe that Taiwan and Washington are unnecessarily antagonizing Beijing.
O’Dekirk said distrust in U.S. intentions or ability to support Taiwan partly reflects China’s messaging campaign to amplify misgivings, but partly also reflects the normal ebb and flow of disagreements in democracies.
She’s received a lot of questions about whether the upcoming U.S. election will cause a shift in U.S. support. In this regard, she has maintained a typically diplomatic style.
“Unlike almost any other foreign policy or domestic policy issue in the United States, there is broad bipartisan consensus on Taiwan policy,” she told reporters at her farewell news conference on Friday. “So I don’t think the election is necessarily going to change that.”
