David Bania, the head of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, reportedly traveled alone to Doha to meet with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani. Momentum grows again for possible ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas.
It appears to be the first in a series of complex discussions aimed at finally bridging differences between the Israeli government and Hamas over what each side defines as the bottom line for a potential deal.
After Baniya left Doha, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said differences remained between the two sides. Israeli officials have said expectations need to be tempered.
Hopes for a deal were newly revived after Hamas responded to President Joe Biden’s three-phase proposal weeks ago.
Key to this formulation is the delay in what has long appeared to be the main obstacle to both sides’ acceptance of the deal – Hamas’s demand that a ceasefire must be permanent, and Israel’s counter-demand that Israel must be free to resume fighting in Gaza if necessary.
The specifics of Hamas have not been made public. But Israel’s response appears far more positive than elsewhere in the past seven months as the process has regained momentum. A source in the Israeli negotiating team said Hamas’ proposals included “very significant breakthroughs”.
There are signs that this may be the point at which Hamas has accepted the proposal announced by President Biden – to allow negotiations to achieve the goal of a permanent end to the war through the first six weeks of a ceasefire phase rather than starting from demands.
Hamas has been angry at the United States for describing it as a major stumbling block to a deal. If it turns out that Israel did make this concession, the ball will be firmly back in the court of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
He has never backed down personally from his public commitment to the total elimination of Hamas and Israel’s right to continue fighting in Gaza after a ceasefire. He resisted all pressure from inside and outside Israel to change this position. But the pressure from all sides continues to increase relentlessly.
The latest push appears to come from within his own military. A recent New York Times article quoted unnamed current and former security officials as saying that top Israeli generals “want to begin a ceasefire in Gaza even if it leaves Hamas temporarily in power.”
Mr Netanyahu sees this as defeatism. But he may not be able to resist that pressure forever, nor the growing anger from those on the streets in Israel who want the remaining hostages in Gaza brought home immediately.
For Hamas, there are also signs of growing despair over the ongoing war among Gaza civilians who suffer daily. And internationally, the patience of mediators such as Egypt and Qatar may be running out.
Regional countries that wholeheartedly support the Palestinian cause are also reportedly putting increasing pressure on Hamas to accept the deal. Its leadership may have believed that the group’s apparent survival, even if severely degraded both politically and militarily, might be sufficient for victory.
For the international community, the need to find some way to end the war has become even more urgent amid fears that the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah could erupt into an all-out war. A ceasefire in Gaza could ease these tensions.
For the Biden administration – which is still haunted by last week’s debate between the president and Donald Trump – a diplomatic success would be a much-needed boost.
All of these factors suggest that renewed hope may ultimately prove more resilient to the negative factors that previously dashed it.
