Claudia Sheinbaum was elected Mexico’s president by the largest margin in decades, and while votes were still being counted on Monday, it was clear that Mexico’s left-wing ruling party and its allies may have the power to reshape the country political landscape.
They appear to be on the verge of securing a large enough majority in Congress to enact proposals to amend the constitution that would alarm the opposition, including advancing controversial legislation that could remove key checks on presidential power.
Early reports showed Ms. Scheinbaum, the first woman and first Jew elected president, beating her opponent by a staggering 30 percentage points or more on Sunday. She and her Morena party had been expected to win, but their landslide victory exceeded pre-election polls.
“We will fight tooth and nail in these elections,” Morena party leader Mario Delgado said in a speech on Sunday.
The election was a referendum on current President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s nearly six-year term in office, reflecting the overwhelming support of voters for his stewardship of the country.
Preliminary results show Morena won seven of nine governorships, including most notably the governorship of Mexico City, and won absolute majorities in at least 22 of 32 state legislatures.
During Mr López Obrador’s term, millions of people have been lifted out of poverty, the minimum wage has doubled and more Mexicans have received pensions. But he has also empowered the military, prioritized fossil fuels and pushed for measures that critics say could weaken Mexico’s democratic institutions.
Still, concerns about such moves have not affected support among most voters for López Obrador’s protégé Scheinbaum and his party.
“Voters gave Claudia a task that only a few would have dared to predict,” said John Feeley. From 2009 to 2012, he served as Deputy Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico. “Claudia cleaned house.”
Still, for some critics, Morena’s tighter control of both chambers of Congress has raised red flags.
“I’ve ruled out the possibility that Morena has a blank check to do what they want to do. But that’s what we’re seeing now,” said Luo, a Mexican diplomat who has served as the country’s ambassador to four countries. Roberta Lajous said. “Democratic institutions are used to limit democracy.”
The systemic changes proposed by Mr. López Obrador would, among other things, reduce the number of members of Congress; eliminate many independent regulatory agencies and transfer their functions to federal agencies; and make Supreme Court justices elected by popular vote. He also seeks to make election officials elected by popular vote, a measure that critics warn would undermine their independence.
Opposition in Congress has stymied those ambitions — until now.
“There seems to be a majority consensus of, ‘Go ahead with your plan,'” said Sergio López Ayllón, a law professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico who has advised the Mexican Senate and others. ” and the Supreme Court.
But for Morena and the two smaller parties in his electoral coalition, a piece of the puzzle is still missing to fully control the legislation. Early election results suggest the coalition will gain a two-thirds supermajority in the House of Representatives, allowing it to push for constitutional amendments, but may fall a few seats behind in the Senate. If that happens, it could still gain an outright majority by striking deals with other lawmakers, legal experts say.
“They are going to have to do some negotiations,” Mr. Lopez-Alon said. He added that if they win the seats they need in the Senate, “that would open a path to very rapid constitutional change.”
One unknown is whether Ms. Scheinbaum, who takes office on October 1, will actually commit to pushing for the reforms that Mr. López Obrador proposed in February and that she quickly adopted. While she has publicly defended the proposals, analysts also say she has no choice but to fully support López Obrador on the campaign trail.
Election officials are expected to announce the final results of the election sometime this week.
The Mexican peso fell more than 3% on Monday, a rare drop for a currency that has held firm against the dollar recently. Financial strategists said the jitters in financial markets reflected broader uneasiness about the possible erosion of checks and balances, which could expand the government’s role in the economy.
Roberta Jacobson, the former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, said a major concern for businesses was the potential for “the election of Supreme Court justices and a substantial erosion of the independence of regulators.”
Critics say the selection of judges could subject them to political pressure, making them accountable to political leaders and less willing to rule against political sponsors. Jacobson said the move could impact the company’s ability to get a fair hearing on disputes with regulators or judicial bodies.
“What you’re doing is retaining these agencies but stripping them of any fig leaf of independence by handing their functions over to the executive branch,” she said of the regulators. “That will remove any illusion of independence and put that One power vested in the President.”
Ms. Scheinbaum expressed her willingness to work with the private sector, saying in an address to supporters on Monday morning that “we will respect business freedoms and honestly promote and facilitate private investment at home and abroad.”
Ms. Jacobson said she was likely to make the measures a priority “given the importance of this to López Obrador’s project and legacy.” But, she added: “The other possibility is that she doesn’t push for a vote at all and lets it die.”
Another scenario is causing anxiety among the government’s critics. The new Congress will briefly overlap with the final month of López Obrador’s term in September, giving him a chance to push for structural reforms if the ruling party secures an outright majority in the Senate.
