European parliamentary elections in 27 countries ended on Sunday, with initial predictions of a strong showing for far-right parties, a result that, if confirmed, would be a powerful measure of voter dissatisfaction and a harsh rebuke to the political mainstream.
The poll showed that the prevailing winds in Europe’s political institutions have cooled significantly. If confirmed, they could make it harder for the European Parliament to secure a majority to pass laws and make negotiations on divisive issues more difficult. More broadly, they stressed that the momentum of the far right, which has been broadening its challenge to the center over the past decade, has not yet reached its peak.
The expected outcome does not bode well for Europe’s centrist leaders and their parties, including France and Germany, the continent’s two largest countries considered the engine of Europe’s experiment in centralized state sovereignty.
The results were particularly shocking for French President Emmanuel Macron, who hosted President Biden at a state dinner in Paris on Saturday night. Macron’s Ennahda party is expected to receive around half the support of far-right Marine Le Pen’s national rallies, with the party expected to receive more than 30% of the vote, according to preliminary vote tallies.
The result now could put Ms Le Pen, derided by Mr Macron as a threat to the values of the French republic, in the best possible position to challenge the French mainstream in a presidential election three years later when Mr Macron, a term-limited man, Must give way.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), officially labeled a “suspicious” extremist group by German authorities, also took a strong stance.
The party is forecast to receive around 16% of the vote. Expected results show the Alternative for Germany trailing the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union but ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats as the second-ranked party in the country.
Right-wing parties currently govern alone or as part of coalitions in seven of the EU’s 27 countries. These views are gaining ground across the continent as voters focus more on nationalism and identity, which are often associated with immigration and some culture war politics related to gender and LGBTQ issues, which have The United States is also getting attention.
The far-right’s strong showing could even reverberate in the United States, expected to embolden political forces loyal to former President Donald J. Trump as he seeks to return to office in the Nov. 5 election.
Other factors contributing to the rise of the right include continued anger over COVID-19 policies, as well as inflation following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which has prompted Europe to turn away from cheap Russian energy.
Far-right elements in the European Parliament are pro-Russian and want to push for a quick peace deal with Ukraine on Russian terms. Their voices could influence the EU’s so far staunch support for Kyiv, including billions of dollars in funding for weapons and reconstruction, as well as a path to EU membership.
EU leaders have watered down environmental policy and overhauled the bloc’s immigration policy to address the concerns of traditional conservative and far-right voters, but the electoral success of more radical right-wing parties could bring more changes.
New, more conclusive data based on actual vote counts is expected to be released on Sunday evening.
Aurelien Breeden Reporting from Paris.
