June marked an unsettling milestone, marking the 12th consecutive month that global warming has reached or exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius – the internationally recognized threshold for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.
It’s been a suffocating month, with heat waves and… Hot to deathTemperatures in June this year were also about a quarter of a degree higher than the hottest June on record in 2023, according to a report by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. it is 13th consecutive month Breaking its own monthly high temperature record.
Positive and impactful reporting on climate change, environment, health and science.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Research Center, said in a statement that Earth’s continuing soaring temperatures are “more than just a statistical oddity; it highlights the dramatic and ongoing changes our climate is undergoing.”
“Even if this particular extreme ends at some point, we’re bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm,” he said. “That’s inevitable unless we stop adding [greenhouse gases] Enter the atmosphere and oceans.
The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, was established under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Under the agreement, the United States and nearly 200 other countries agreed to limit the rise in global average temperatures to at most 2 degrees Celsius, and preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius, above pre-industrial levels to reduce the worst impacts of climate change.
The pre-industrial period refers to the era before humans began to meaningfully change the Earth’s climate through fossil fuels and other heat-trapping emissions, and is typically measured using temperature data between 1850 and 1900. The global average temperature of 16.66 degrees Celsius (61.98 degrees Fahrenheit) is 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the estimated pre-industrial average temperature.
Brenda Ekwurzel, a senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a national nonprofit, said the unprecedented year-long stretch is “very remarkable and disturbing.”
However, one year above 1.5 degrees Celsius does not necessarily mean humanity has failed to achieve its goals, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has not formally determined how many years of warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius will be needed to reach this threshold.
Ekwurzel said this is a subject of frequent scientific discussion, but many experts suggest that the limit should refer to at least 10 years of warming at that temperature.
“What’s remarkable for humanity – for all life on Earth – is that we’ve been hovering close to the threshold set by the Paris Agreement, and this could be the first year where we’re on average for that decade,” she said. “That means we’ve had it in the log for a year.”
The benchmark is more than symbolic. A 2018 IPCC special report laid out a worrying future based on 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, with emissions scenarios leading to more deadly heat waves, droughts, floods, famine, ecosystem damage, public unrest and political unrest. Stability and other consequences.
Rising global temperatures have led to a surge in heat-related illnesses and deaths, including 1,300 deaths during this year’s hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. Last year, a record 31 days of hot weather in Phoenix killed an estimated 645 people, while California’s heat wave in 2022 killed an estimated 395 people.
“We still haven’t changed our cultural patterns to adapt to the reality of climate change,” Ekwuzel said. “The timing of our sporting events, the timing of some of our cultural events, is all based on ancient temperatures.”
It’s not just the land surface that’s boiling. Copernicus said the non-polar sea surface temperature in June was 69.53 degrees, the highest on record for that month. Sea surface temperatures reached their hottest on record for the fifteenth month in a row.
Temperatures are rising despite the weakening of El Niño, a weather pattern in the tropical Pacific associated with global warming. Scientists say El Niño has caused record-breaking planetary temperatures in recent months and hope its dissipation will bring some cooling.
That could still happen in the coming months, especially as La Niña conditions emerge later this year, but the continued high temperatures indicate “somewhat a deviation from the natural cycle,” Ekwurzel said.
“Once the ocean warms, it’s difficult to cool it because its heat capacity is so high,” she said. She added that warmer water could be dangerous for marine life and people on land because it could lead to stronger winds, storms and waves.
The Atlantic Ocean is expected to experience an active hurricane season this year. Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean has become the earliest storm ever to reach Category 5.
Seasonal forecasts indicate that high temperatures will continue over the coming months. Nearly all regions of the U.S. are expected to experience above-average temperatures in July, August and September, with the Four Corners and Far Southeast having the greatest chances of above-normal temperatures, according to NOAA .
A dangerous heat wave that began in California last week pushed temperatures into triple digits across the state and sparked a series of wildfires.
The heat also prompted a federal response. The U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration last week introduced a proposal to follow California’s lead and set heat standards for 35 million indoor and outdoor workers.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency is also facing growing pressure to expand the definition of a “major disaster” to include extreme heat, which advocates say would open up new avenues for cities and states grappling with the growing threat. Capital pipeline.
Ekwurzel says it’s not too late for humans to change course and avoid the 1.5-degree Celsius limit. However, urgent action is needed to reduce emissions.
“The Earth, the oceans and the atmosphere tell us that we have to act very quickly if there is any chance, and many, many, many people are losing hope,” she said. “We’d better adapt to a 1.5 degrees Celsius world. Many people say this could be the coolest decade of the 21st century.
