Author: YP Rajesh, Sakshi Dayal and Tanvi Mehta
NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition is expected to win a clear majority in a general election that ends on Saturday, TV exit polls showed, suggesting the alliance would outperform Most people expected analysts.
Most exit polls predicted that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could win a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house, which requires 272 members for a simple majority. A two-thirds majority would enable the government to introduce far-reaching amendments to the constitution.
A summary of five major exit polls predicted the NDA could win between 353 and 401 seats, a figure that could boost financial markets when it reopens on Monday. The NDA won 353 seats in the 2019 general elections, of which the BJP accounted for 303.
Three of the five polls predict that the BJP alone will win more than its 303-seat victory in 2019.
The opposition ‘Indian’ alliance led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party is expected to win between 125 and 182 seats.
Exit polls conducted by pollsters have a poor track record in India as they often return wrong results, and analysts say getting the results right is a challenge in the vast and diverse country.
In his first comments after the vote, Modi claimed victory but made no mention of exit polls.
“I can say with confidence that the people of India voted in record numbers to elect the NDA government,” he said on X, without providing evidence to back up his claim.
“The opportunistic Indian alliance failed to resonate with voters. They were casteist, communal and corrupt.”
Pre-election surveys indicate that the BJP will easily retain its majority in the election. But the party suffered a tight contest from the “Indian” alliance, raising doubts about how close the contest might be, with many political analysts predicting that the margin of victory for the BJP would be smaller than or closer to the 2019 result.
The opposition dismissed the exit polls, calling them a “prefix” before they were released. Most opposition parties accuse India’s major news channels of favoring Modi, a charge they deny. They also say that most of India’s exit polls are unscientific.
“This is the government’s exit polls, this is Narendra Modi’s exit polls,” Congress party social media chief Supriya Shrinate told Reuters Equity ANI News Agency.
“We know how many seats we’re going to win, it won’t be less than 259 seats,” she said.
Analysts say uncertainty rises
Nearly a billion people are eligible to vote in seven phases of elections starting on April 19, held in sweltering heat in many areas.
The Electoral Commission will count the votes on June 4, with results expected that day.
If the 73-year-old Modi wins, he will become the second prime minister after independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru to be reelected for three consecutive terms.
Modi began his re-election campaign by focusing on his achievements over the past decade, but quickly turned his focus on the Congress Party, accusing it of favoring India’s Muslim minority, a charge denied by the opposition party.
The opposition is mainly focused on affirmative action programs and saving the constitution from what they call Modi’s dictatorship, a charge the BJP denies.
Surveys show that unemployment and inflation are the top concerns for voters in this predominantly Hindu country of 1.4 billion people.
Market analysts said the exit polls removed uncertainty about the likely outcome and suggested Modi’s growth-focused economic policies would continue.
VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said: “The exit poll results, which showed a clear victory for the NDA in about 360 seats, completely dispelled the so-called election jitters that had been plaguing the market in May.”
“This is a shot in the arm for the bulls, who will trigger a sharp rally in the market on Monday,” he said.
