Far-right vote surges and ditches Alternative for Germany

Far-right parties are on the rise across much of Europe, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni senses a momentous occasion.

“We are on the eve of decisive elections,” the Italian Brotherhood leader told a packed hall in Madrid via video link. Marine Le Pen of France’s national rally and Spain’s Vox party leader Santiago Abascal were seated in the front row. “We are the engine of the renaissance of our continent,” the Italian prime minister declared, before eliciting a standing ovation from the audience.

The far right won elections in Italy and the Netherlands, led polls in France, Austria and Belgium, and gained a seat in the governments of Finland and Slovakia.

Now, in the European elections held by the 27 EU countries from June 6 to 9, they can obtain the support of more than 3 out of every 10 votes, becoming a powerful force in the European Parliament.

The rise of the far right could be overshadowed by internal strife amid a series of scandals surrounding the AfD.

That’s why the AfD’s allies in the EU expelled the German party from the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group in the European Parliament.

They want nothing to do with a party whose top candidate Maximilian Krah reveals embarrassing view of Adolf Hitler’s Waffen-SS His No. 2 faces accusations of taking money from Vladimir Putin’s Russia – accusations he denies.

This connection is the last thing Marine Le Pen needs. She has spent years trying to wean her party away from the extreme views of her father, who founded the precursor to the National Rally and was convicted of making light of the Holocaust.

Her party’s current approval rating in opinion polls is around 30%, and she is most likely to become France’s next president in 2027.

Giorgia Meloni, the most successful figure on Europe’s far right, also has high hopes. Her ambition is to create a right-wing force to run Brussels.

“They’ll have more people [in Parliament] “These are people who will be mainstreamed or normalized by their presence,” said Sabine Volk, a close observer of the far right at the University of Passau in Germany.

If Ms Meloni’s EU group European Conservatives and Reform (ECR) performs well in the election, they have a chance of finding common ground with the centre-right of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Von der Leyen’s European People’s Party is likely to end up being the largest party, and she is willing to ally with the European People’s Party as long as they are pro-European, pro-Ukrainian and support the rule of law.

The ECR includes not only the Italian Brotherhood, but also Poland’s right-wing populist opposition Law and Justice party, Spain’s Vox party, Rika Prala’s Finns Party, which is part of the Finnish government, and Jimmy Akerson’s Sweden Democrats, who are in There is no cooperation with the Swedish government without cooperation with the Swedish government.

It is difficult to imagine that they would all agree to Ursula von der Leyen’s demands, especially when some of the center-right parties in her group would not even support such a coalition. But if they do, then the European Parliament could steer policy in a very different direction on green policy, immigration and asylum.

The two far-right groups – ECR and ID – could also form a powerful bloc if they could somehow overcome their internal differences.

Sabine Volk is very skeptical of “a super coalition” of far-right parties, as is Matthias Dilling, an expert on European politics at Swansea University.

“The far right in Europe has a divisive history,” he said. “I don’t know if we’ll see a single far-right group because they’re still quite heterogeneous internally.”

The ID Group is home to France’s National Rally, whose other members include Italy’s League Party, Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ), the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders Freedom Party, Belgium’s Frams Béran party and the Danish People’s Party.

There are different views on what constitutes a far-right party, but Marine Le Pen, like Mr Wilders, rejects the label.

Dutch political scientist Cas Mudde – perhaps the best-known observer of Europe’s far right – says that at its core it combines nativism, authoritarianism and populism. He defined nativism as “a xenophobic form of nationalism”.

Despite the efforts of the French National Rally and the Italian Fraternity to shed the far-right label, Matthias Deering said the three pillars of Cass Mudd are “very clearly present” in both parties.

Immigration and anti-feminist policies often link far-right movements, says Sabine Volk. She believes some parties may support gender equality but would ideally prefer women to stay at home.

The Italian Brotherhood recently passed a law allowing anti-abortion groups into abortion clinics in an attempt to prevent women from terminating their pregnancies.

Although some commentators consider Hungary’s ruling nationalist conservative Fidesz party to be a far-right party, they do not belong to any far-right group.

Most far-right parties have historically sought to challenge the supranational power of the EU, and many still do.

But Professor Leila Simone Talani of King’s College London said Ms Meloni’s party had abandoned its “once strongly anti-Brussels” stance. Her European election manifesto stated that “we want Europe to become a political giant that plays a leading role internationally.”

Meanwhile, Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) campaigned under the slogan “Stop the EU madness” against the backdrop of Volodymyr Zelensky kissing the European Commission president and buzzwords such as “asylum crisis” and “ecocommunism” .

Despite a series of national scandals, Liberal leader Herbert Kickel leads EU election polls and is likely to win national elections in the autumn.

Eurosceptic rhetoric remains prevalent on the far right, but there is now less talk of leaving the EU.

The Liberal Party led by Geert Wilders did support the Dutch “Brexit” referendum to leave the EU, but now says: “I find that the Netherlands no longer supports Brexit.”

The same goes for the Finns Party, which no longer actively seeks Finland’s withdrawal from or “fixing” the EU: “It is unrealistic for Finland to unilaterally leave the EU in the near future,” the party said.

Sweden Democrats leader Jimmy Akerson has not given up entirely on the idea and wants to strip Sweden’s EU membership from the constitution.

Marine Le Pen has never been a fan of the EU either, but she no longer talks about leaving. She tried to accuse its officials of “promoting Islamism and wokeness” and of trying to abolish European borders. Her party is now led by Jordan Bardella, who is number one on the EU electoral list. But in third place is Fabrice Leggeri, the former director of the European Union Border Agency.

How this patchwork of nationalist politics will play out in the European Parliament after the June 6-9 vote is difficult to predict.

But as the Madrid rally showed, far-right parties are much better organized than before. Even Argentine President Javier Milley was there.

“This is part of a long trajectory [for the far right] Build international contacts and international networks,” said Matthias Dilling.

The question is whether they have the same ambitions as Georgia Meloni.

“I wanted to try something not easy but fascinating, to repeat in Europe what we achieved in Italy,” she told Italian television.