France votes as far-right hopes to win but deadlock looms

On Sunday, France will hold one of its most important elections in years, with the far right hoping for a historic victory but political gridlock more likely.

This is the first time Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardera’s anti-immigration National Rally (RN) has a realistic chance of running the government and taking full control of the National Assembly.

But after RN secured a first-round victory in early parliamentary elections last Sunday, hundreds of rivals withdrew to give other candidates a better chance of defeating the far right.

Polling in mainland France opens at 08:00 (06:00 GMT), with the first exit poll due 12 hours later.

Whatever the outcome, it will be difficult for President Macron to get out of this well.

Four weeks ago, he said calling for early voting was a negative move in response to RN’s victory in the European elections, minutes after the party’s 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella challenged him to do so. Responsible solutions.

For a country preparing for the opening of the Paris Olympics on July 26, the two rounds of elections were shocking. The security situation is already tense and 30,000 police officers have been deployed to deal with a period of heightened political tensions.

Protests outside the National Assembly on Sunday night have been banned amid fears of violence in Paris and other French cities regardless of the outcome of the vote.

In Dreux, a historic old town on the road to Normandy, Sunday’s vote coincided with the Olympic torch relay. “For us, this is a big deal, more important than the election,” said the tourism board’s Pauline.

The flame has been traveling across France for nearly two months, and Dele plans to hold celebrations over the weekend to mark its arrival.

“Macron should wait until after the Olympics,” Dre resident Antoine told the BBC.

Veteran commentator Nicolás Barverez believes the president has not only ruined his tenure but also opened the door to power for the far right. “He has damaged the hosting of the 2024 Paris Olympics, which could be a final blow to France’s credibility and its image,” he wrote in Le Point newspaper on the eve of the vote.

The constituency that includes Dele is one of those to watch in the second round of this election.

Candidates such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have won seats with more than half of the votes cast. But another 500 races are being decided in runoffs, most involving two or three candidates.

Former conservative cabinet minister Olivier Marleix was defeated in the first round by far-right candidate Olivier Dubois. Both of them qualified for the runoff, along with a candidate from the left-wing New Popular Front, which ranked second nationally.

But Nadia Faveris withdrew from the race “to prevent national rallies” as Nadia Faveris was narrowly defeated by her conservative rival, finishing third.

One voter named Morgan doubts that anything will change in the town no matter who wins.

Across France, 217 candidates have withdrawn, including 130 candidates from the Popular Front and 81 from the Presidential Alliance.

This significantly changes the balance of this critical election.

Forecasts after Sunday’s first round of voting showed Republicans had a chance of gaining an outright majority of 289 seats, but Friday’s final poll suggested that goal is now well out of reach, with the potential top number likely to be between 205 and 210 seats seats.

Parties trying to block a Republican victory include the radical left, the Communists and the Greens, as well as Macron’s centrists and conservatives. They say they are defending the Fifth Republic from the extreme policies of the far right.

National rallies watered down many policies but still wanted to give French citizens “national priority” over immigrants in jobs and housing. It aims to abolish the automatic right to citizenship for children of immigrants aged 11 to 18 who have spent five years in France. It also wants to ban dual nationals from dozens of sensitive jobs.

Opinion polls are not necessarily reliable. Each of the 500 races was a local contest where voters did not follow the advice of the political parties.

If the RN gains more than 250 seats, it may seek allies to form a minority government. President Macron’s party had to make do with similar figures until he became frustrated with his limited ability to pass reforms in parliament.

Professor Armin Steinbach of HEC Paris business school believes that such an RN government is unlikely to be established. He believes it will soon face a vote of no confidence and, under the constitution, France cannot hold another election for at least a year.

Another possible scenario is a “grand coalition” that would include most other parties except the radical French party LFI, which Macron’s coalition and conservatives view as an extremist.

The idea has gained some momentum in recent days, but Green Party leader Marine Tondellier made it clear that whatever happens “there will be no Macronist prime minister”.

There is also talk of a technocratic government, similar to that seen in Italy during the eurozone debt crisis. But rather than selecting experts from outside politics, it may include politicians with proven expertise in specific areas.

In any case, France is entering uncharted territory, said Jean-Yves Dormagen of the Cluster 17 Institute.

President Macron himself has stated that he does not intend to resign and will serve out the final three years of his term.

“We are going to have Macron become a lame duck president who created this chaos unnecessarily,” Professor Steinbach told the BBC. “And he is losing legitimacy.”

France’s top priority is to establish some form of government during the Olympics.

Constitutional expert Benjamin Morel believes the president could form a government of national unity until after the Paris Olympics.

“This will give all parties time to reach an agreement between now and the start of the academic year and the next budget,” he told Le Figaro.