New research predicts that Gen Xers will have a higher chance of developing cancer by age 60 than baby boomers.
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A new study from the National Cancer Institute finds that as Gen Xers enter their golden years, they are more likely to be diagnosed with cancer than the baby boomers who came before them.
If current cancer trends continue, papers published this month JAMA Internet Open It concluded that “cancer rates in the United States are likely to remain unacceptably high for decades to come.”
What accounts for the predicted increase in the incidence of invasive cancers remains an open question.
“Our study cannot pinpoint any specific cause,” said lead author Philip S. Rosenberg, a senior researcher in the institute’s biostatistics division. “It gives you on-the-ground intelligence about what’s going on. That’s where you go to find clues about why.
Researchers believe early detection, obesity and a sedentary lifestyle may be part of the reason for the rise in cancer rates. Some studies also point to pollutants, including a class of man-made chemicals known as PFAS, as possible culprits.
Rosenberg and his team used data on 3.8 million people diagnosed with malignant tumors in the United States from 1992 to 2018 to compare members of Generation X (born 1965 to 1980) and Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964) cancer incidence. He then conducted modeling showing that when Gen Xers turn 60 (starting in 2025), they are more likely to be diagnosed with an aggressive cancer than baby boomers were at age 60.
Studies predict that Generation X is, in fact, more likely to develop cancer than any generation born between 1908 and 1964.
For decades, the news about cancer has been largely encouraging. Lung cancer rates are declining due to education efforts about the dangers of tobacco. Cervical cancer rates are also falling in women, as are liver cancer, gallbladder cancer and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in men.
But alarming increases in colorectal and other cancer rates among Generation X and younger adults have masked this downward trend.
The new study’s model found increased rates of thyroid, kidney, rectal, colon and leukemia in both men and women. In women, there are also increased rates of uterine, pancreatic, and ovarian cancer, as well as non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. In men, studies also predict an increased incidence of prostate cancer.
Rosenberg said in an interview that he was surprised that rates of many different types of cancer appeared to be higher among Gen Xers than among baby boomers. He was also surprised that rising cancer rates were expected to offset what he described as previous “very important and impressive cancer declines.”
The growth of Gen generation.
Douglas Corley, chief research officer at San Francisco Permanente and a gastroenterologist at Kaiser, said in an email that he thinks the generational divisions in cancer trends are “somewhat artificial.”
For example, kidney cancer rates among young adults in the United States have increased steadily over the past century. “So, being a member of the most recent generation doesn’t put you at risk,” he said. “It’s not that one generation is necessarily exposed to things that the previous generation wasn’t exposed to. It’s a year-to-year change.
He thinks the environment may play a role in rising cancer rates.
Olga Naidenko, vice president for scientific investigations at the Environmental Working Group, who was not involved in the study, said previous epidemiological studies have suggested pesticides, toxic chemicals and air pollutants may be to blame. She said in an email that the United States should do more to reduce exposure to pollutants such as PFAS, or “forever chemicals,” and pesticides.
“Investing in cancer prevention research is absolutely necessary,” she said.
Kohli also pointed out that obesity, sedentary lifestyle and early cancer detection are also part of the equation.
He also said it was important to note that the new study did not examine cancer mortality. For most cancers, early detection and better treatment can improve survival rates, Coley said.
Study author Rosenberg agreed. “We are in a situation where the United States has made tremendous progress but also faces tremendous challenges in preventing cancer,” Rosenberg said.
His data suggests that Millennials (the generation born after Generation X) will not get a reprieve.
“Is there anything that gives us confidence that things are going to get better for millennials?” he asked. “We found, no.”
Ronny Cohen is a Bay Area journalist focusing on health and social justice issues.
