Hamas Politburo Chairman Ismail Haniyeh gave an exclusive interview to Anadolu Agency on April 20, 2024 in Istanbul, Turkey.
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Tensions in the Middle East Tensions escalated sharply early Wednesday when senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an attack in the Iranian capital, Tehran.
Reuters reported that Iranian officials accused Israel of carrying out what they said was the assassination, but an Israeli government spokesman declined to comment on Haniyeh’s death on Wednesday.
“Israel’s attitude is very clear – Haniyeh is a zombie,” wrote Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, in a post on X after the news. “After leaving Doha, it was game time . Hours after Fouad Shukr was killed in Beirut, the Middle East is now absolutely on a knife edge.”
Just a day earlier, Israeli forces announced they had killed Hezbollah’s second-ranking figure, Fouad Shukr, in an attack on a densely populated area of Beirut in retaliation for last week’s attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. attack, which killed several people. Israel has accused the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah of responsibility for the attack, a charge it has so far denied.
Haniyeh, a former Hamas politburo chief, is seen as a relatively moderate figure within the group – importantly, he led ceasefire negotiations with Israel and is the face of the group’s regional diplomacy efforts.
Israel’s alleged killing of Haniyeh marks a blow to Hamas and essentially destroys any short-term chance of a ceasefire between the Palestinian militant group and Israel in the brutal war in Gaza, now entering its tenth month.
Israel and Iran have demonstrated the ability to pose a serious threat to each other, but the risk of new attacks is growing.
Torbjorn Saltvetter
Verisk Maplecroft Chief MENA Analyst
Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani wrote on , how can peace be taken seriously when one party assassinates the negotiator of the other?
The government in Qatar has long hosted Hamas’s political leadership. Haniyeh was appointed leader of Hamas’ political wing in 2017 before going into exile in Qatar in 2019. Harder Hamas adherents. Sinwar is believed to be the mastermind of the October 7 attack on Israel, which killed about 1,200 people and took 253 hostages, 116 of whom have been released.
Israel’s military response to the attacks has killed more than 39,000 people in Gaza, according to the United Nations, and destroyed more than half the buildings in the blockaded enclave, health authorities said
While ceasefire talks have been going on for months without success, the more extreme Sinwar – based inside Gaza and said to have the final say on major Hamas decisions – has often stalled or cut off communications during negotiations.
Victor Tricaud, a senior analyst at the consultancy Control Risks, told CNBC that Haniyeh is “a key interlocutor in Gaza ceasefire negotiations.”
“His killing will derail negotiations and mean that the position of Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, will face less modest checks and balances within the organization,” Terry Cowder said. “The ceasefire agreement It may take several months to get there.”
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken continued to stress that the ceasefire was an “enduring imperative” and denied that the US knew anything about the Israeli attack on Haniyeh, speaking at a forum in Singapore.
The U.S. State Department designated Haniyeh a terrorist in 2018, calling him a “supporter of armed struggle, including against civilians,” and claiming that Hamas’ actions resulted in “the deaths of an estimated 17 Americans in terrorist attacks.” Loss of life”.
Will Iran retaliate?
Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah have all vowed retaliation; but their actions against Israel could lead to further escalation or plunge the region into a larger war.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant told the Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday that Israel “does not want war but is preparing for all possibilities”. Meanwhile, Iran’s leader said the alleged Israeli attack was grounds for “severe punishment” and that the country must “pay a heavy price”.
An all-out war between Israel and Iran—and Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah—would be devastating for all parties involved. But not responding at all may not be an option for Iran’s leaders, who will face pressure to show force.
A banner hanging on the facade of a building shows missiles and drones flying over a torn Israeli flag, with the words “The next slap will be harder” written in Farsi and in Hebrew “Your next mistake will be the end of your false state” was held on April 14, 2024 at Palestine Square in Tehran.
Atakenare | AFP | Getty Images
Torbjorn Soltvedt, chief Middle East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that Haniyeh’s death in Tehran “puts Iran’s leadership under intense pressure from the Revolutionary Guards to resume operations on Iranian soil.” To retaliate after being attacked”.
“Israel and Iran have demonstrated the ability to pose a serious threat to each other, but the risk of new attacks is increasing.”
Still, many regional analysts expect Iran’s response to be conservative, as the Islamic Republic has so far shown no interest in going to war with Israel to help Hamas. The tit-for-tat exchange of missile strikes between Iran and Israel in April was largely measured and telegraphed to avoid significant damage or casualties.
He said Control Risks’ Tricaud expected any retaliation “will be very targeted – possibly using Iranian-backed proxy groups”. “It is unclear whether Tehran’s intention to avoid a full-scale regional conflict with Israel has changed as a result of Haniyeh’s killing.”
He added that while the attack did constitute a major violation of the Islamic Republic’s sovereignty, “Tehran has repeatedly shown that it does not want to be drawn into direct conflict with Israel over the Gaza war.”
