High-level meeting showcases China and Xi Jinping

Jake Sullivan’s first visit to China as U.S. National Security Advisor. He will hold talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi as the two countries work to stabilize relations.

Mr Sullivan and Mr Wang met four times over 16 months in Vienna, Malta, Washington and Bangkok. Their last meeting in January came shortly after President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden held a high-stakes summit aimed at restarting icy relations.

This week’s talks are scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, a sign that China remains a priority for the Biden administration even as the retiring president enters the final months of his term.

Is it possible to hold another summit?

The White House sought not to explicitly link Mr Sullivan’s visit to the US presidential election. But it’s hard to ignore the timing.

If Sullivan can set the stage for an eventual summit between Biden and Xi Jinping, his trip will end the U.S. president’s most important and fraught foreign policy relationship.

U.S. and Chinese diplomats have always acknowledged that negotiations between Washington and Beijing are never easy. There is much more to discuss.

As the U.S. election takes an unexpected turn, with Biden withdrawing his support for Kamala Harris, China is paying close attention to what might happen with its next president.

Donald Trump has made it clear he will further increase tariffs on Chinese goods, which could deepen The trade war he started in 2019.

Although the Biden administration sees the merits of diplomacy, it has not reversed Trump-era tariffs and instead added more in May He declared severe duties Electric cars, solar panels and steel made in China.

Mr Biden has also strengthened alliances across Asia Countering China’s Growing Influence and bolstered Washington’s military presence — which in turn unnerved Beijing.

So far, the Harris campaign has not given many clues about how she plans to handle relations with China.

The White House has made clear that Sullivan’s visit is intended to continue the work of the Biden administration, not set the tone for the next president.

But regardless, China is likely to look forward.

Beijing will use the meeting with Mr. Sullivan to clarify its priorities. It wants all parties in the United States to listen – China’s Foreign Ministry calls this a “critical juncture” between the world’s two largest economies.

For China, the red line is and always will be Taiwan. It claims sovereignty over the self-ruled island and has repeatedly said it will not tolerate any sign of Washington encouraging Taiwan’s independence.

High-profile diplomatic visits, such as controversial visits Then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi In 2022, or recognizing Taiwan’s elections or its democratically elected leaders, all fall into this category.

Chinese state media stated that Beijing will focus on issues such as the “Taiwan issue” to express serious concerns, make clear its stance, and make serious demands.

China will also have some tough words for Sullivan on trade. Beijing called the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods “unreasonable” and urged Washington to “stop politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues” and “take more measures to promote personnel exchanges between the two countries.”

After taking office, Biden hopes to establish a stable relationship with China after experiencing the chaos and unpredictability of the Trump administration.

His government wants to “responsibly manage” competition with Beijing. Demonstrate U.S. power and competition with China through covert operations, not bravado.

But as events unraveled, that strategy was upended.

Last year, a crisis engulfed the direct relationship between the two countries US fighter jets shoot down suspected Chinese spy balloon over U.S. territory.

War in Ukraine and the Middle East further exacerbated the situation.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing in April and warned that Washington would take action if China did not stop supplying Russia with microchips and machine parts to make weapons for the war in Ukraine.

He accused his Chinese counterparts of “contributing to the greatest threat to European security since the Cold War”.

His warnings came true, with Chinese companies facing a series of sanctions for allegedly supporting the Russian military.

It’s a thorny topic that China has tried to avoid, but Washington has persisted and Sullivan is likely to bring it up again.

China’s increasingly assertive stance in Asia also makes the United States wary of the impact of those relationships further afield — particularly with Iran, which is allied with Moscow and also supplies weapons to Israel’s adversaries.

Finally, in the United States, Chinese-made “precursor” chemicals used to make synthetic opioids like fentanyl are having a devastating domestic impact on overdoses Killing more Americans than ever before The crisis left entire towns in ruins.

Last year’s summit between Biden and Xi in San Francisco aimed to make progress on these issues.

Since then, despite the tariffs and harsh rhetoric, Washington and Beijing have acknowledged their differences — and reports of an agreement to limit fentanyl production are a good sign.

When the BBC accompanied US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on a visit to Shanghai and Beijing in April, public accounts of some of his meetings with senior Chinese officials gave the impression of a steely confrontation.

It was a show of diplomatic prowess aimed at domestic audiences on both sides. No doubt it will also be part of Mr. Sullivan’s trip as he seeks to ramp up his diplomacy in the final months of Mr. Biden’s presidency.

But these meetings have another fundamental purpose – face-to-face time between two competing, interdependent economies as they grapple with mutual distrust and try to probe each other’s true intentions.

Jake Sullivan’s previous meeting with Wang Yi seemed to have quietly laid the foundation for what the two sides called a “stable relationship.”

Sullivan said in a recent speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington that he and Wang “are getting to the point where we are putting aside the topic and really having a strategic dialogue.”

He characterized the conversations, which included one about the war in Ukraine, as “direct.”

“We all came away with the feeling that we didn’t agree or see eye-to-eye on everything, but there was a lot of work to be done moving forward.”