Weekly housing inventory data
I know I’m not supposed to treat the rebate holiday week as positive inventory growth, but this is my chart party and I’m going to roll it out the way I like it. As a result, we expect inventories to reach 11,000-17,000 units for the sixth consecutive week this year, with inventories growing to 16,910 last week.
- Weekly inventory changes (July 12-19): Inventory growth from 651,453 arrive 668,383
- Same week last year (July 14-21): Inventories rising 471,603 arrive 480,448
- Historical inventory bottom occurs in 2022 240,497
- The annual inventory peak in 2024 is 668,383
- For some purposes, active listings this week in 2015 were 1,201,808
New listing data
Although the new listing data has increased year by year as expected, it has not yet reached my minimum target. 80,000 Peak week this year. So far, the highest weekly print volume in 2024 is just 72,329. The seasonal decline in new listings will begin soon and we will see if there are fewer sellers in the second half of the year than the current trend.
Here are the number of listings last week over the past few years:
- 2024: 68,681
- 2023: 62,859
- 2022: 80,089
Price reduction percentage
On average, one in three homes loses price every year—standard housing activity. With interest rates remaining high, price reduction percentages are higher than in the past two years and inventories in some parts of the country are higher than national data.
A few weeks ago, I discussed on the HousingWire Daily podcast that price growth data would cool down in the second half of the year. Here are last week’s price reduction percentages over the past few years:
- 2024: 39%
- 2023: 34%
- 2022: 35%
for sale
Below is altos research corp. Weekly open contract data shows immediate demand compared with the same period last year. Our demand has increased this year as more sellers become buyers. These are weekly real-time contracts as compared to purchasing application data, where purchasing application data lasts for 30-90 days.
- 2024: 382,435
- 2023: 378,227
- 2022: 418,983
Purchase application data
As with all weekly housing data, we always see the impact of the holidays in the purchasing app data. Last week’s unadjusted data showed 22% weekly growth, but we never used that data line. It fell 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Assuming interest rates decline in the second half of the year, we need to keep an eye on weekly buying applications as four of the past six weeks have been positive, which typically takes 30-90 days to reach existing home sales levels.
Since mortgage rates began to fall in November 2023, we have seen 16 positive photos, 15 negatives, and Two flat prints in weekly data. However, as mortgage rates began to rise earlier this year, we observed a decline in demand. Data so far in 2024 remains unfavorable; 10 positives and 15 negatives, and two Flat print.
10-Year Yield vs. Mortgage Rates
Ten-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates were moderate last week. Not much changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield opening the week at 4.24% and closing at 4.24%. Prices were higher on some pricing indicators Friday afternoon. As we’ve been discussing for some time, the 4.20% 10-year Treasury yield level is a tough nut to crack, but the recent downward trend in yields remains intact. The chart below closed at 4.17%, but the 10-year Treasury yield on Friday closed the week at 4.24%.
mortgage spread
Again, one positive for interest rates this year is spreads – if spreads don’t improve this year, we’ll be in a very different housing market situation in 2024. . If mortgage spreads were typical today, we would have mortgage rates below 6% and the 10-year yield would not fall significantly. Imagine if both fell together!
If we took the worst spread levels from 2023 and combined them to today, mortgage rates would be 0.52% Now higher. While our spreads are far from average, the improvement we’ve seen this year is a plus.
Week Ahead: Home Sales Report Could Disappoint
Existing and new home sales will be released this week; both reports missed sales expectations. Mortgage rates have fallen recently and purchase application data has increased: positive data has appeared in four of the past six weeks. But the purchase period for apps is 30-90 days, so higher rates will be included in this week’s report, and there are also two fewer business days in June.
We also have some bond auctions this week, and Fed Chairman Bowman will speak on Wednesday. She is the most hawkish Fed chair, so it will be interesting to hear her speak a week before the Fed meeting.
