Weekly housing inventory data
Although inventory growth slowed this week to 6,803 — Well below my weekly goal level 11,000 -17,000 Mortgage rates are rising – the fact that we hit that target level five times this year compared to zero last year is a big reason why the housing market in 2024 will be much better than in 2023. It’s a much healthier year with inventory growth figures higher than 2023.
- Weekly inventory changes (June 29 to July 5): Inventories rose to 645,770 arrive 652,573
- In the same week last year (June 30 to July 7), inventories rose 466,534 arrive 466,001
- Historical inventory bottom occurs in 2022 240,497
- This week is peak 2024 inventories 652,573
- For some purposes, active listings this week in 2015 were 1,183,882
New listing data
We are in the seasonal peak of new listings. We will soon enter a weekly decline period in this data line, and while we have shown year-over-year growth, we have never reached my minimum target level of 80,000. Here are the new listings from last week over the past few years:
- 2024 71,181
- 2023: 58,289
- 2022: 89,221
Price reduction percentage
On average, one in three homes loses price every year—standard housing activity. With interest rates remaining high, price reduction percentages are higher than in the past two years, and inventory data in some parts of the country is higher than national data.
A few weeks ago on the HousingWire Daily podcast, I discussed that price growth data would cool down in the second half of the year.
Here are last week’s price reduction percentages over the past few years:
- 2024: 38%
- 2023: 33%
- 2022: 32%
for sale
Below is altos research corp. Weekly open contract data shows immediate demand compared with the same period last year. Our demand has increased this year as more sellers become buyers. There was very little year-over-year growth this week, and there was also a holiday week effect. For the full year, our backlog has grown slightly; that line will likely grow year over year when mortgage rates come down, but so far in 2024, we haven’t had that happen in any meaningful way on a sustained basis. Condition.
So far, our pending contract data is still growing:
- 2024: 381,057
- 2023: 381,036
- 2022: 420,816
10-Year Yield vs. Mortgage Rates
Two weeks ago, 10-year Treasury yields moved wildly higher despite weak inflation data. Last week, we were back near recent lows. Here’s a look at the 10-year Treasury yield versus the jobs week, again showing the labor market is softening but not yet collapsing.
And then there’s Jobs on Friday, the headline numbers look good, but internal labor reports have been looking weaker lately, and that’s what Jobs did on Friday. United States Federal Reserve Always wanted. I wrote about the most recent weekly employment figures here.
Bond yields moved lower after the jobs report and stayed lower throughout the day on Friday, July 5, as shown in the chart below, followed by lower mortgage rates.
mortgage spread
The spread between 30-year mortgage rates and 10-year yields has been an issue since 2022, and it got worse after the March 2023 banking crisis. However, spreads have improved this year.
If we took the worst spread levels from 2023 and combined them to today, mortgage rates would be 0.56% Now higher. While our spreads are far from average, the improvement we’ve seen this year is a plus.
Purchase application data
A three-week streak of gains in purchase application data ended last week as interest rates rose in previous weeks. This again shows that even weekly moves up and down can move this data line from positive to negative.
Since mortgage rates began to fall in November 2023, we have seen 15 positive photos, 14 negatives and Two flat prints in weekly data. However, as mortgage rates began to rise earlier this year, we observed a decline in demand. The data so far in 2024 is not promising; 9 positive photos, 14 negatives and two Flat print. If mortgage rates can come down and stay lower over term, we can increase application numbers purely based on the fact that we’re working from the bottom up to accommodate our workforce growth.
The week ahead: Inflation, Powell testimony, auctions and Fed speech
It’s inflation week again. We will release CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports on Thursday and Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before Congress on Tuesday, and more Fed chairmen will speak next week. The key will be to see whether recent soft labor data changes attitudes.
We will also have some bond auctions. It will be difficult for the 10-year yield to fall below 4.20%, so we will see this week if that happens or if it remains in a range between 4.20% and 4.50%.
