Military-aged men are a dangerous and scary bunch. It’s best to have as few of them as possible. I should know. I’ve been one of them myself.
Republican politicians and other immigration restrictionists have been warning in recent months about the large number of “military-age men” among migrants crossing the southern border. There is no basis for such alarmism. Immigration of “military age males” does not pose any special danger. In fact, they are, on average, less dangerous than their native-born counterparts. Nor is there any reason to be overly concerned that this group may be overrepresented among illegal immigrants.
The definition of “military-age male” is unclear. But most likely, it refers to men between the ages of 18 and 45 – the age group that includes most military personnel. If so, it is not surprising that illegal immigrants may disproportionately come from this category. After all, most immigrants are fleeing poverty and repressive societies in the hope of finding greater freedom and opportunity. For obvious reasons, men in their prime working years are more likely than children or older people to go out and look for work.
Furthermore, illegal migration often involves risks arising from participation in illegal markets. Undocumented immigrants can become victims of criminals, be detained by U.S. authorities in harsh conditions, or suffer other dangers. On average, men are more risk-accepting than women. It is therefore not surprising that they are more likely to be willing to risk illegal immigration. If you want to increase the share of women and children among immigrants, the best way to do that is to make legal immigration easier, thus making the process far less dangerous.
Still, the imbalance between men and women in the illegal immigrant population is far from overwhelming. The Migration Policy Institute estimates that women make up 46% of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States. This is only slightly less than their share of the total U.S. population (about 51%). Moreover, by 2023, instead of a surge in the proportion of single men among undocumented immigrants, the proportion of undocumented immigrants in family units actually increased.
One of the concerns about male immigrants of military age is the fear that they might become terrorists. But since 1975, there have been zero deaths from terrorist attacks in the United States by illegal immigrants crossing the southern border. Either the incidence of male terrorists crossing the southern border is extremely low, or they are extremely bad at committing actual acts of terrorism. In fact, male undocumented immigrants experience terrorist attacks at much lower rates than native-born citizens.
There is also no good evidence that male immigrants of military age are somehow agents of foreign militaries planning an invasion. Being a male of enlistment age does not mean that you may be a member of any actual military or possess any military skills. Likewise, the fact that young men are, on average, better basketball players than women and older men does not mean that most young men are actually professional basketball players or possess only basic basketball skills. Calling them “basketball-age men” doesn’t change that reality. I criticize the “invasion” narrative in more detail here .
At the heart of concerns about men of military age is a fact: Men, especially young men, commit crime at much higher rates than women. They commit a disproportionate share of violent and property crimes. For example, in 2019, men accounted for nearly 89% of those arrested for murder and nearly 97% of those arrested for rape, according to the FBI.
However, if you’re worried about undocumented military-age men for this reason, you should be more worried about native-born men. That’s because undocumented immigrants have much lower crime rates than native-born Americans. For example, in Texas, undocumented immigrants (2.2 homicides per 100,000 per year) are about 10% less likely to be killed between 2013 and 2022 than native-born citizens (3.0 homicides per 100,000 per year) 36%. This is without controlling for age and gender. If you do control for these variables, the gap between the crime rates of undocumented immigrants and natives becomes even wider because the former have a higher proportion of young males.
Obviously, in any large group, there will be some dangerous individuals. The problem is not that there is no risk for male immigrants of working age (it is not!), but that the incidence of such risk is low.
Conservatives rightly condemn those on the left who claim that all men are potential rapists. Although rape occurs at a much higher rate among men than among women, the vast majority of men are not rapists and will never become rapists. The same reasoning applies to right-wing alarmism about “military-age male” immigration. It is wrong to stigmatize a large group of people based on the crimes of a few. This is especially true if the group’s overall crime rate is actually lower than that of similarly situated members of the rest of the population (in this case, native-born men in the United States).
All in all, there is nothing surprising or sinister about the relative overrepresentation of “military-age males” among undocumented immigrants. On average, these men were actually less dangerous than native Americans of the same age and gender.
Clearly there are many reasons for immigration restrictions and harsh border policies that have nothing to do with fear of military-age men, or even crime and terrorism more generally. Some are more justified than the fear of men of military age.I have tried to address many of these issues in other writings, such as my book Free Movement: Foot Voting, Immigration and Political Freedom. Here, I hope to help dispel a bad argument so we can put more focus on a better one.
