In the months leading up to India’s long national election season, the country’s hundreds of cable news outlets seemed to be trying to outdo each other: They predicted Prime Minister Narendra Modi would win, and win by a big margin.
However, actual election results on June 4 showed that his fortunes had plummeted to the point where he could only be re-elected with the help of his coalition partners.
It was a shocking result for many, and India now finds itself wondering why so few had foreseen the opposition movement’s popularity. Some media had predicted that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win 400 of the 543 seats in parliament, but it ended up winning only 240 seats.
Many see the disparity as an indication of how thoroughly the prime minister has intimidated the mainstream media, and how his control of the information system has become so complete that hype masks the true sentiment of voters.
During Mr Modi’s decade in power, a combination of pressure and incentives made mainstream news channels cheerleaders for his every move. They portray the powerful prime minister as an unstoppable leader who cannot be challenged by any opponent. It is impossible to debate his policies or even the promises he has delivered.
Many journalists at prominent news outlets embrace what Mr. Modi has normalized: taking pride in his Hindu-first vision of India. Those investigating the unsavory aspects of his tenure, including independent agencies that sharply criticized his policies, have been ostracized, attacked or otherwise forced into submission.
When the exit polls were released on election night, one channel even claimed that Modi’s alliance had won 30 parliamentary seats in a state with only 25 parliamentary seats. Feeling dissatisfied with financial pressures.
Analysts say the vast majority of media predictions were far from the truth, indicating one of two things: Indian citizens are too afraid to speak their minds or are too suspicious of broadcast media to trust their true opinions.
Yogendra Yadav, a political activist and veteran election analyst, said, “The media is actually building momentum for the ruling party,” adding, “They are a stain on our democracy.”
Analysts say Modi and the mainstream media underestimated how much of the information space has escaped the bubble they created. As mainstream media lose credibility, a parallel system of online journalists with more independent viewpoints has developed.
In fact, much of the election was conducted online. Opposition figures have found online space an important channel for criticizing Modi, who they say has made India more undemocratic and unequal.
Saurabh Shukla, co-founder of YouTube channel The Red Mike, said: “Centrist journalism is gone and it’s a loss for the country.”
Mr. Shukla is an award-winning journalist who quit his job at a news desk to start his own YouTube channel with another journalist. What you see on the news is a stark contrast.
In a sign that even Modi is beginning to realize the disparity, he sent ministers to interact with a YouTube channel to discuss his party’s achievements. At times, he even trolled the mainstream media that sang his praises.
“If you work in the media, if you wave the Modi flag religiously – who will keep you?” the prime minister told four interviewers from a media outlet in New Delhi.
India, with a population of 1.4 billion, has more than 350 news broadcasters covering 880 satellite television channels. It also has the largest number of YouTube users in the world.
Since independence in 1947, India has enjoyed a reputation for having a large and independent-leaning media culture, a reputation that was disrupted only by months of Emergency and censorship imposed by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in the mid-1970s.
That independence streak has been changing over the years of Modi’s leadership, though, as leaders of his Hindu nationalist bloc have found a range of ways to apply pressure to keep media groups in line.
Journalists and editors critical of the government began leaving traditional news media and turning to the Internet. Unlike TV news channels who spent hours covering Modi during the campaign, this group of independent journalists talked about people, their stories and their problems.
Among them is Ravish Kumar. Mr. Kumar began broadcasting on YouTube after quitting his job as a prime-time news anchor. For months, he has focused on issues such as rising rural unemployment and loopholes in competitive exams that have prompted hundreds of thousands of students to take part in protest marches.
Mr Kumar, watched by more than a million people almost every day, questioned Mr Modi’s use of religious polarization to win votes rather than talk about his development record, while his counterparts in TV news used prime time to attack Mr Modi’s speech.
Online news anchors used their time interviewing Modi to mostly throw out softball questions that had nothing to do with national issues, such as “Is this election just a formality?” or “Why aren’t you tired?”
Another independent journalist, Ajit Anjum, reported on voter anger against a federal minister after spending several days in his constituency in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Many news channels predicted she would win in a landslide, but she was defeated by a low-profile rival, the opposition leader’s long-time campaign manager. Here’s another accurate prediction from YouTube’s independent news channel.
“YouTube has given the Bharatiya Janata Party and its media supporters a difficult time,” said Mr. Shukla, a journalist. As more election results emerge, more and more viewers appear to be turning to online news viewing for follow-up coverage.
Several independent media organizations have come together to conduct their own election night coverage, and many Indians follow them online for more dispassionate analysis than shouting contests on TV news.
It’s unclear whether the sudden boom in independent journalism will last.
“I don’t know if this is going to last,” said freelance journalist Mandeep Punya. He added that while more people were viewing his content, a new law made it easier for the government to censor online stories.
Despite challenges from the government, online news providers have gained ground in terms of credibility this election cycle. The accuracy of their predictions contrasted sharply with those of CNN.
Political activist Yadav said after visiting the Hindi-speaking north of India, where Modi’s party has its traditional base, that he expected the BJP to win no more than 260 seats. Few believed his assessment, especially television news commentators. But he’s right.
