Indian Prime Minister visits Kiev after Moscow, walking a diplomatic tightrope

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine on Friday. The visit comes just weeks after he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

The visit is significant because of the strong reaction from Kiev and some Western capitals Mr Modi visits Russian capital July.

Zelensky was particularly critical, saying he was “disappointed to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy embracing the world’s bloodiest criminal in Moscow”.

So is Modi’s visit to Kiev an attempt to appease Zelensky and other Western leaders?

Not exactly.

It is not surprising that India is balancing the relationship between two competing countries or blocs. The country’s famously non-aligned geopolitical approach has served it well for decades.

Friday’s visit, the first by an Indian prime minister to Ukraine, was more of a sign that India will continue to maintain strong ties with Russia but will still work closely with the West.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, said that this trip will further reaffirm India’s strategic autonomy.

“India has no intention of appeasing Western powers or anyone. This visit is intended to promote India’s interests by reaffirming its friendship with Kiev and expressing its concerns over continued war,” he said.

The timing of the visit does, however, reflect that Indian diplomats have taken note of the strong U.S. reaction to Modi’s trip to Moscow.

India has No direct criticism of Russia This war caused great dissatisfaction among the Western powers.

However, Delhi has often spoken of the importance of respecting the country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. It continues to promote diplomacy and dialogue to end the war.

Modi visited Moscow in July, hours after bombings in Russia killed at least 41 people in Ukraine, including those at a children’s hospital in Kiev, triggering a global outcry.

India’s prime minister said the children’s deaths were painful and horrific but stopped short of blaming Russia.

Modi is unlikely to change this stance during his visit to Kyiv. The United States and other Western countries have come to accept Delhi’s position, given India’s time-tested ties with Moscow and reliance on Russian military equipment.

India is the world’s largest arms importer. In recent years, its defense import portfolio has diversified and its domestic manufacturing industry has grown. However, more than 50% of its defense equipment is still purchased from Russia.

India has also taken advantage of the cheaper prices offered by Moscow to increase oil imports from Russia – which was India’s largest oil supplier last year.

The United States and its allies have frequently implored India to take a clearer stance on the war, but they have refrained from imposing harsh sanctions or pressure.

The West also sees India as a counterweight to China and does not want to disrupt this dynamic. India is now the world’s fifth largest economy and a growing business market.

Kugelman said Western countries would welcome the visit and see it as Delhi’s willingness to engage with all parties.

“Mr Modi has a strong incentive to send a signal that it will not move so close to Moscow that there is nothing salvageable with Kyiv,” he said.

This is important because India wants to continue to develop relations with the West, especially the United States, and does not want to disrupt this momentum. US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti recently said relations between the two countries should not be “taken for granted”.

India also needs the West as its Asian rivals China and Russia have forged close ties in recent years.

While Delhi has long viewed Moscow as a force that can put pressure on an assertive China when needed, this cannot be taken for granted.

Meanwhile, many media commentators have talked about the possibility of Modi positioning himself as a peacemaker, given India’s close ties with Moscow and the West.

But he is unlikely to show up with a peace plan.

“Is India really capable of doing that? Are the conditions right? India doesn’t like other countries trying to mediate on its own issues, chief among them being Kashmir. I don’t think Mr. Modi will unless both Russia and Ukraine are willing. To formally offer mediation. At this point, I don’t think they have done that,” Mr. Kugelman added.

However, Ukraine still welcomes Modi’s visit and sees it as an opportunity to engage with Moscow’s close ally, something it has not done much since the war began.

However, Zelensky is unlikely to restrain his criticism of Putin in front of the Indian prime minister. Mr Modi can live with this, as he has encountered it many times in other Western capitals.

Moscow is unlikely to react to the visit as it has also been making concessions to Delhi’s multilateral approach to geopolitics.

But apart from reiterating its non-alignment policy, Delhi has a larger purpose for this visit.

India has been increasing its engagement with Europe over the past decade, especially with the underserved regions of Central and Eastern Europe.

New Delhi hopes to continue to consolidate relations with the four major powers, Britain, Italy, Germany and France, but also hopes to strengthen contacts with other European countries.

Modi will also visit Poland during his trip, becoming the first Indian prime minister to visit the country in 45 years. In July this year, he also became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Austria in 41 years.

Analysts said this signals India’s growing recognition that Central European countries will play a greater role in future geopolitics and that strong relations with them will be beneficial to Delhi.

The Indian government has also resumed trade agreement negotiations with Europe. It has a trade and investment agreement with the European Free Trade Association, the intergovernmental organization of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

So while much of the focus during his visit will be on the war, Indian diplomats will likely continue to focus on larger goals.

“Central and Eastern Europe now have greater power to write their own destiny and reshape regional geopolitics. Mr Modi’s visit to Warsaw and Kiev is to recognize the significant changes at the heart of Europe and to deepen bilateral ties with Central European countries political, economic and security relations. indian express Newspapers summarized Mr Modi’s broader aims.