Polls show that the centre-left Labor Party will return to power after more than a decade in opposition, which will bring about a fundamental adjustment in British politics.
How to vote in the UK?
The UK consists of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales and is divided into 650 constituencies.
Voters in each constituency elect a candidate to represent them as a member of parliament, and the party that wins the most seats usually forms the next government. The leader of the party also became prime minister.
To win an absolute majority, a party must win 326 seats. If the top party fails to achieve this goal, the result is a so-called hung parliament, in which the party can try to form a coalition government with other parties. In 2010, the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats joined forces to form the UK’s first coalition government since World War II. In 2017, the Conservative Party formed an alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.
What’s the main problem?
Polls show the state of the UK economy is the top concern for most voters today, following a cost of living crisis and record inflation – which peaked at 11.1% in 2022 and has only recently begun to return to target levels .
The NHS, the state-funded healthcare system that provides free medical care across the country, is another top priority. After the global financial crisis in 2009, British Prime Minister David Cameron embarked on a decade of fiscal austerity, which left British public services severely underfunded and facing chronic staff shortages. Waiting lists for NHS treatments were already growing before the pandemic and have soared further since, and are a major source of public dissatisfaction.
Immigration ranks third on many voters’ lists of top issues, although its importance varies markedly according to party preference. Only 20% of Labor voters said it was one of their most pressing national issues, while in a recent YouGov poll 65% of Tory voters said it was one of their top concerns.
Who is running and who is likely to win?
The two largest political parties in the UK are the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and the Labor Party, led by Keir Starmer, a former prosecutor and human rights lawyer.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party overtook Labor as the most popular party in 2015. But a funding scandal and the resignation of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon have dented the party’s support over the past year. Polls now suggest Labor has a chance of making significant gains in Scotland this time around, which would pave the way for Starmer to become Prime Minister.
The populist Reform Party, co-founded by Brexit advocate Nigel Farage, has been rising in polls in recent months. Conservative officials fear anti-immigration parties could steal supporters from their candidates, although Mr Farage’s decision not to run as a candidate was welcomed by the party.
Two other parties, the Lib Dems and the Greens, made considerable gains in local elections in early May. But while both parties plan to gain seats in July, Britain’s electoral system makes it harder for smaller parties to win seats in parliamentary elections.
When will we know the results?
Exit poll results were released shortly after polls closed at 10pm on July 4, based on a survey of thousands of exit poll voters.
Exit polls are not always accurate – they were known to predict a hung parliament in the UK’s 1992 and 2015 elections, when in fact the Conservatives ended up winning a majority. But they have become increasingly reliable in the country in recent years and are generally seen as providing a good early indication of how the public is voting.
The first results for several constituencies will be announced around 11pm, followed by a steady stream of results into the early hours of the next morning. The overall result is usually clear by around 7am, although some rural seats may be announced later.
